I did not think I could say this out loud, but the scholarly journal Administrative Theory and Praxis said it for me:
“Cumulatively, 14,551 more Republicans than Democrats would perish under these projections, a significant change given that Trump carried the Commonwealth by 44,292 votes. Michigan is also implementing a social distancing action and projections show that the estimated loss of life is lower than in Pennsylvania. However, Trump carried the state by 10,704 votes with the narrowest margin in the nation. The calculations suggest that 11,145 more Republicans than Democrats would potentially perish, suggesting that Michigan would be more difficult for Republicans to maintain their narrow win in 2016 for future elections.”
www.tandfonline.com/...
These were projections for the November 2020 elections. I don’t know how well they held up after the election, but the concept certainly has probabilistic credence.
The paper is based on age demographics. This process is now probably being potentiated by the political demographics of vaccination rates.
Republicans and Fox News are spreading anti-vax propaganda that is suppressing the Republican vote in swing districts and swing states the hard way. It’s probably happening because the Republican base is, in-effect, demanding this human sacrifice of their own kind as the price for their continued engagement. (The Aztecs had to sacrificed POWs captured outside their region of political control. Montezuma said that sacrificing their own caused too much unrest.)