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While some aspects of the military withdrawal from Afghanistan went surprisingly well, President Biden was caught in reaction mode rather than preemption mode. If he and his staff had foreseen Trump’s potential to sabotage the withdrawal process, they would’ve known that the table was likely set for a Taliban takeover during withdrawal.
Trump and his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo clearly saw the benefits of that assuming Trump would lose the Nov. 2020 election. By establishing a totally unrealistic withdrawal date of May 1, 2021 while doing nothing to prepare for it in his last months in office, Trump was betting on a worst-case scenario where all chaos would be blamed on Biden, increasing the odds of Trump winning back the presidency in 2024.
Trump insisted that Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar be released from a life-without-parole sentence to negotiate the Taliban’s position in the February 2020 agreement that came with that May 2021 departure date.
Although the Afghan government was not involved in these talks, one has to wonder if a deal was struck between the Taliban and then Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. Being that Ghani let his government collapse and escaped the country with four cars, allegedly filled to the sun visors with cash, his well-timed safe passage before the full US withdrawal may have been prearranged.
Trump wanted Biden to struggle, and he complicated the process by slow-walking the processing of special SIV visas for the thousands of Afghans who were interpreters, assisting American forces in the field for years. They were scattered throughout the country, and the rapid ceding of power to the Taliban meant travel within the country was completely shut down with checkpoints everywhere.
Trump also encouraged the release of 5,000 Taliban fighters. And he abandoned five US bases, leaving most of their equipment behind. Failure in the withdrawal process was Trump’s biggest hope for defeating Biden in 2024.
Yet sadly for Trump, the withdrawal was mostly a success. The Taliban kept their promise and didn’t attack the fleeing masses. But thousands of US allies were unable to make it to Kabul because of Taliban control. Their fates now rest in diplomatic, not military, hands.
But there was a strategy not taken by Biden that could’ve kept the Taliban from their swift and bloodless takeover of the country.
Over much of the last two decades, America bolstered the Afghan Army through providing meals, equipment, weapons, ammo, and most importantly, a paycheck. When that last key element was destined to be pulled, the incentive for Afghan soldiers to stand up for their country was tenuous at best.
There were no guarantees that a flailing government would be able to sustain - or even prioritize - their economic security. No doubt they had witnessed firsthand that Afghan officials were rife with corruption without any US oversight on where the supporting funds went at the top of the food chain. America provided one leg of a three-legged chair, and with that taken away there was no Afghani infrastructure in place to adequately replace it.
No doubt Afghan soldiers saw their military as merely a paper tiger against the Taliban. Laying down their weapons would not cost them anything and perhaps save their lives and those of their family members.
But in a war with over two trillion already invested, another half billion spent wisely could’ve prevented the Taliban takeover until after the stated Aug. 31 withdrawal date. Biden could’ve kept the Afghan military intact if he arranged for them to continue to be paid through and after the American exit. Perhaps a bonus would be in order if they stayed in the army for an extra six months.
And more money could’ve been spent greasing the palms of tribal warlords and local officials, keeping them loyal to the Afghan government in the short term. If a Taliban takeover was inevitable, it would’ve happened after the door was shut behind us.
With an intact army, and the Taliban adhering to their agreement not to fight Americans as they left the country, Ghani would’ve had no reason to sneak away. He could’ve maintained travel within the country and used his army to safely gather and transport all of the interpreters and others who supported the US war effort. With US troops also on these rescue missions, the Taliban wouldn’t risk jeopardizing their withdrawal agreement and giving reason for American forces not to leave..
Then after our army was free and clear, Ghani could still orchestrate a safe exit and let his government fall. Or perhaps a new leader would keep the Afghan Army intact, and hold onto at least some of the country such as Kabul. Leaving the Taliban to control the rural areas, a truce perhaps could’ve been found.
American dollars, applied wisely starting this February, could’ve made the withdrawal a lot simpler. We might not have had to leave so much equipment and aircraft behind. But most importantly, we could’ve vastly accelerated the SIV process from the beginning and assured safe passage for all of our greatest Afghan allies and their families.
That would’ve been the best way to defeat Trump’s plans of sabotage for an easy US exit.