I like making maps. Posting them I’m not so good at. Was kinda reluctant to post this yet since 2012/2016 numbers seem really dated compared to 2016/2020. Particularly upstate. But that type of thinking is why I never post anything. So just accept this map is flawed and just a first draft.
Main features. Tom Suozzi tossed overboard to make a better Republican vote sink on the North Shore with Zeldin’s seat becoming a lot more Democratic. NY-02 and NY-11 are made Democratic enough that their Republican office holders should be dislodged. I scrambled Western New York with Katko and Tenney being thrown together. But it isn’t inconceivable she could run against Reed or Reed could run against Jacobs. I could have been more aggressive and created an earmuff district as I have in past years but it is too much of a dummymander for my taste.
I’ll start with the map and link to Dave’s Redistricting App and start the rundown of each district.
davesredistricting.org/…
And post it on twitter so you can see the general shape of things if you don’t feel like clicking.
PVIs will be 2012/2016 rather than 2016/2020 since that is what I have available. Be advised in many places Trump did better in 2020 than Obama did 2012 even if nationally the Obama 2012 and Trump 2020 numbers are similar.
District — 01. Old PVI — R+5, New PVI — D+5
Incumbent: Lee Zeldin.
Comments: If he wasn’t running for Governor he would move to NY-03. Without Smithtown Zeldin’s district moves to the left.
District — 02. Old PVI — R+3, New PVI — D+5
Incumbent: Andrew Garbarino. Steve King might survive this. Garbarino probably won’t.
Comments: This district benefits from taking Democratic areas from Kathleen Rice who is reinforced by going more heavily into Queens.
District — 03. Old PVI — D+3, New PVI — R+5.
Incumbent — Tom Suozzi.
Comments: The Northern “gold coast” of Long Island makes a great Republican vote sink and helps shore up neighboring districts. Suozzi says he’s thinking of running for Governor. He won’t have a choice. NY-02 is Suffolk areas he’s never represented. And while NY-06 has a good bit of the Nassau part of his district it’s mostly Queens and he would have a tough time beating Grace Meng in a primary. Suozzi’s past history of under performing (including coming way too close to losing in 2020) makes this feel like a win to me.
District — 04. Old PVI — D+4, New PVI — D+4
Incumbent — Kathleen Rice.
Comments: I would feel better getting getting her another point or two. But I do also want to maximize the Asian vote in NY-05 and not hurt the Democratic challenger to Garbarino. Should be fine as she is a good fit for the district.
District — 05. Old PVI — D+37, New PVI — D+36
Incumbent — Gregory Meek
Comments: Meeks gets the short end of the stick and has his African-American population at 42% rather than 51% for Jeffries and 49% for Clarke. Some of that is he does pull some duty in shoring up Democrats around him and some of it is just the changing nature of his district. Could Jeffries, Clarke, and himself do some trading and get everyone around 47? Sure. And that is probably would will happen. But I did try to keep two of the African-American districts around the 50% mark.
District —06. Old PVI — D+16, New PVI — D+13
Incumbent: Grace Meng.
Comments: Took in some Nassau. 47.92% Asian. Of course a lot of them are not Chinese like Meng.
District — 07. Old PVI — D+38, New PVI — D+26
Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez
Comments: Nydia should do just fine in this district having a good relationship with both white ethnics and “woke” Brooklyn. District goes from 38% Latino to 22.7%. This is the cost of solidifying NY-11 and other goals across the map.
District — 08. Old PVI — D+36. New PVI — D+44
Incumbent: Hakeem Jeffries.
Comments: His African-American base is solidified. Which is good news for 2022. 2030? Who knows.
District — 09. Old PVI — D+34. New PVI — D+26
Incumbent: Yvette Clarke
Comments: Her African-American base is solidified which will help in 2022. 2026? Who knows.
District — 10. Old PVI — D+26. New PVI — D+27
Incumbent: Jerry Nadler.
Comments: I would love to take him out of South Brooklyn as it makes for a really ugly map. But it just makes things easier. In fact he gets a bit more Brooklyn to help with my potential fix for Carolyn Maloney’s problems.
District — 11. Old PVI — R+3. New PVI — D+7
Incumbent: Nicole Malliotakis
Comments: Staten Island via Sunset Park meets woke Brooklyn. Initially drew Nydia in for a little extra punch but that would require a new Brooklyn district that Nydia would just move to anyway. Why make Nydia move?
This is solid enough of a Democratic district that Max should easily steamroll Nicole Malliotakis. One amusing possibility. With Park Slope could it attract Bill DeBlasio into the race?
District — 12. Old PVI — D+31, New PVI — D+33
Incumbent Carolyn Maloney
Comments: Carolyn has had a rough couple of years incurring a number of strong Queens base challenges. 2022 promises to be no different with City Comptroller Brad Landers already backing one DSA challenger. I heard a rumor that legislators are thinking of splitting her district between Espaillat and Nadler because they have so little faith in her. I don’t believe it. And I don’t think Espaillat is looking to have a district whiter and less Dominican. But I do know she desperately wants out of the People’s Republic of Astoria and here is the way. She gets black Harlem from Espaillat who then takes on more Dominicans in the Bronx .
Might Maloney just replace challengers from Queen with Black challengers from Northern Manhattan? Maybe. But one fire at a time.
District — 13. Old PVI — D+43, New PVI — D+44
Incumbent: Adriano Espaillat
Comments: He loses Black Harlem. Gets more Latinos and Dominicans.
District — 14. Old PVI —D+29, New PVI — D+30
Incumbent: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Comments: I originally tried to maximize her Latino percentage but it came at the cost of her house in Parkchester. A move I can completely see the legislature making since it’s not like she won’t condemn them no matter what they do. But she would be happier (even if violently furious with the cameras rolling) with not having to move and getting more woke lefties even if it reduces her Latino percentage down to 43%.
If she were to make a move against Chuck Schumer look for fellow DSA member and State Assemblywoman Julia Salazar to eye this seat.
District — 15. Old PVI — D+44, New PVI — D+41
Incumbent — Ritchie Torres
Comments: He gains some gentrifying areas and loses others. Still over 50% Latino. He may have endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016 but the DSA has no love for him. Would not be shocker if he faced a primary in 2022.
District — 16. Old PVI — D+24, New PVI — D+7
Incumbent — Jamaal Bowman
Comments: Like Engel sometimes did in past maps Bowman goes upstate to help solidify his neighbors. In fact to shore up Mondaire Jones I had him take Republican areas on his way up to SUNY-Binghamton. He is not the best fit for a whiter more moderate district. So he may have to adjust.
District — 17. Old PVI — D+7, New PVI — D+3
Incumbent — Mondaire Jones
Comments: As Mondaire Jones lives on the left side of the Hudson river and Sean Patrick Maloney lives on the right side they have essentially switched districts. Meaning this district actually improved though not for Mondaire Jones. He goes up to Ithaca to grab a large chunk of Democratic Party voters. Given Trump friendly districts like NY-1 and NY-11 saw their PVI jump 3 or 4 points not where I would ideally want to be.
District — 18. Old PVI — R+1, New PVI — D+8.
Incumbent — Sean Patrick Maloney
Comments: Again Mondaire Jones and Sean Patrick Maloney should be seen as a pair. We went from two districts R+1 and D+7 to two districts D+3 and D+8. But at the expense of making NY-16 D+7.
District — 19. Old PVI — R+2, New PVI — D+6
Incumbent — Antonio Delgado
Comments: I will admit a lot of decisions to the south were made with an eye on shoring Delgado up. This also included taking votes from Tonko.
District — 20. Old PVI — D+7, New PVI — D+6
Incumbent: Paul Tonko
Comments: One point off. The upstate dummymander is made less dumb for the most part. But the price is drawing Tonko and Bowman towards the upstate mean. Hopefully we never find out if we’ll regret that in a 2010 style monsoon.
District — 21. Old PVI — R+4, New PVI — R+6
Incumbent: Elise Stefanik
Comments: Just expands into the depopulating corpse of Claudia Tenney’s old district.
District — 22. Old PVI — R+6, New PVI — R+11
Incumbent: Claudia Tenney
Incumbent: Tom Reed
Comments: Does Tenney actually still live in the district. No. She lives in NY-24. Do I care? No. WIll she run in this district anyway? Maybe. It’s just a few miles south of New Hartford. Except Tom Reed also lives in the district. So maybe she will try to take out Katko instead who will be far easier to primary but in a district far tougher to win in the general. Either way. Win-win.
District — 23. Old PVI — R+6, New PVI — R+12
Incumbents: Chris Jacobs Tom Reed?
While Tom Reed lives in Corning way outside the district he does represent a good portion of it. Is Jacobs easier than Tenney? Back before the Republicans went completely bonkers I would say certainly not. Now? Who knows.
District — 24. Old PVI — D+3, New PVI — D+5
Incumbent: Tom Katko. Claudia Tenney?
Comments: I thought of putting in Ithaca. But I needed that to help Democrats elsewhere. And the Syracuse Democrats have plenty to work with if they can just get their act together. Claudia Tenney lives in the district (yes that is intentional) and may want to primary Katko rather than Tom Reed. That might be the assist we need to win this seat. In fact that is what I’m betting on.
District — 25. Old PVI — D+8, New PVI — D+7
Incumbent: Tom Morelle
Comment: District gets bigger as population leaves Rochester. Dem advantage slips slightly.
District — 26. Old PVI — D+11, New PVI — D+11
Comments: District grows. Remains similar.
After thoughts. Upstate more stable. Need to see if I can give Mondaire Jones some help in the next revision. Also expect PVIs to get uglier once 2020 Presidential numbers come to New York. RIP Governor Tom Suozzi.
Current Partisan Split.
Democrats — 19 Republicans — 8
Probable Partisan Split with new Map.
Democrats — 22 Republicans — 4