In the case of Kazakhstan this week, I believe Russia was as surprised as anyone as to the uprisings. While Russia is unwilling to give up any of its territory, there appeared to be no underlying political opposition that organically arose from its general population. The long-standing corruption was well accepted by the people, although simmering with discontent for as long. What was not present was any person or group to arise as a figure-head with any political aspirations or leadership from the general population.
That said, reports this morning from an expert in Russian influence in Central Asia, Danil Kislov, who runs a news portal focused on the area called Fergana believes the initial protests in Zhanaozen, a run-down town in the west which had violent demonstrations in 2011 over wages and safety was just that again only over the price of LPG. From there, the “Old Man”, Nazarbayev was fired as head of state security Wednesday. The more serious protests arose that day a thousand miles away in the largest city of Kazakhstan, Almaty. www.straitstimes.com/...
What Kislov contends is that the clan loyal to Nazarbayev “harnessed” the discontent of the populace to continue the riots in Almaty and elsewhere. The argument is that the clan claiming power from Nazarbayev were the rebelling force against current President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in response to his total removal of Nazarbayev from ruling the country in any official way. That removal bodes unfavorably for those who have benefited from that cozy relationship since the beginning of Kazakhstan as a “free state”.
He [Nazarbayev] also appeared to be grooming his daughter Dariga as a future leader, according to observers.
www.bbc.com/...
In short, Kislov lays the bloody protests upon the warring power elite. One side is the current although president hand-picked by Nazarbayev against the real power of the nation since 1991, again Nazarbayev. Nazarbayev was a member of the Soviet Communist Party before 1991 and had been a Moscow ally for many decades. Putin has had much confidence in Nazarbayev over the past 30 years.
Does Putin place more value upon that old clan affiliated with Nazarbayev or have any faith in Tokayev being able to secure Russian interests? At this point, Putin appears to just seek absolute control and both may be getting in the way. My money is on Nazarbayev, a known entity.