Natalie Jackson/National journal:
Polls almost always move toward Republicans in the fall
The electoral landscape probably hasn’t changed that much–what we’re seeing is normal pre-election shifting.
In most cases, the polls-closing-in trend favors Republicans, and that remains true in 2022. Why (and whether) the polls move in this way, and why it usually favors Republicans, is a result of polling methodology, environmental factors that occur in most election cycles, and cycle-specific factors.
David Byler/WaPo:
Democrats lead in polls. Two charts show why they’re still worried.
Second, the Republican share of the vote in national House polls is nowhere close to Biden’s disapproval rating. Therefore, at least according to this theory, Republican candidates will regain the lead and retake the House as voters who disapprove of Biden get off the fence and start voting for the GOP.
But optimistic Republicans might be onto something. As my Post Opinions colleague Henry Olsen has argued, Democrats likely need to maintain a historic edge among those who “weakly disapprove” of the president in order to keep their House majority. And as GOP strategist Liam Donovan noted, many who weakly disapprove of Biden remain undecided in 2022 polls. The 2022 midterm elections come down to “where undecided disapprovers land,” Donovan observed. And the expectation is that they will break for the Republicans.
They will break for Republicans because they are Republicans. Except if they don’t because Roe/Dobbs scrambles everything, and if they’re actually independents turned off by Republicans. So is this year different? We shall see reasonably soon.
Nate Cohn/NY Times:
Herschel Walker’s Polling Dip
How the Senate race in Georgia is shaking out.
In today’s highly polarized political climate, it takes a lot for a scandal to make a big difference in a high-stakes general election.
But if the latest polls are any indication, then recent allegations against Herschel Walker, the Republican Senate nominee in Georgia, might be big enough not only to decide his race but also control of the Senate.
Walker has slipped behind his Democratic opponent, Senator Raphael Warnock, by an average of about 2.5 percentage points across all four polls taken since Oct. 3, when an ex-girlfriend accused Walker of paying for an abortion she had in 2009. Walker has made opposition to abortion a cornerstone of his campaign and has denied the woman’s account.
…
As recently as a few weeks ago, Georgia was arguably the closest Senate race in the country. Now, every new poll shows Warnock leading, by an average of over three percentage points. (He had already been ahead by about a half point in polls taken by those same four pollsters before the abortion revelations.) And unlike in many other states, the polls have a relatively good track record in Georgia.
Not only does this edge make Warnock a much clearer favorite than a month ago, it’s a wide enough lead to give him a chance of winning the 50 percent of the vote necessary to win outright and avoid a December runoff. (Georgia election law requires a runoff if no candidate secures a majority of ballots.)
And even if Walker does force a runoff, it would pose an additional challenge to the Republicans: Will reluctant Walker voters show up for him in that election? The Warnock vote will be there.
Philip Bump/WaPo:
The Herschel Walker abortion report doesn’t seem to have changed much
If we break out the vote by party, you can see how subtle the shifts were. A slight widening of the margin for Democrats and a slight narrowing for Republicans but, again, not ones that reflect any obviously significant shift. (The periods during which the polls were in the field — that is, respondents were being called — are indicated with a solid line. The dotted line is the period between polls.)
Politico:
House Democrats retrench as GOP money floods the map
The party isn't airing ads in six of the 14 GOP districts Joe Biden carried in 2020, as it directs money to help incumbents under threat.
Similar pleas are coming from Texas, Pennsylvania and elsewhere, as frustrated Democrats bemoan that their party’s outside groups are unable — or, some say privately, unwilling — to devote precious funds toward what they see as winnable seats.
The result is a shrinking battlefield for Democrats that has seen leadership and rank-and-file members alike pressuring the rest of their party, including Biden, to pony up more support in a bid to save the House majority. The anxiety is especially acute in southern Arizona, where retiring Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick has been lobbying her party to help Kirsten Engel, the Democratic nominee vying to replace her.
“I know with every bone in my body that Engel will win this district if we can get DCCC investing sooner,” Kirkpatrick said of her swing seat where national Republicans have spent over $1.3 million so far on TV. “I understand the impossible decisions they have to make each cycle but coming in late and undervaluing this race is a huge mistake. This is a seat we keep blue if we go big now.”
Chris Murphy/Twitter:
I support halting arms sales to Saudi Arabia, but there are two practical, immediate changes the U.S. can make to Saudi policy that will have an near term impact on the war in Ukraine.
Hear me out. This is important….
First, the Ukrainians are using (and need more) air-to-air AMRAAM missiles. These missiles are needed to defend against Russia's criminal bombardment of civilians.
The U.S. is scheduled to send 280 AMRAAMs to Saudi Arabia. These should be redirected to Ukraine.
Second, there are U.S. owned and operated Patriot anti-missile batteries in Saudi Arabia right now. If Saudi Arabia isn't willing to take the side of Ukraine and U.S. over Russia, why should we keep these Patriots in Saudi Arabia when Ukraine and our NATO allies need them?
We should remove these Patriot batteries from Saudi Arabia and move them to either Ukraine, or NATO partners who have transferred weapons to Ukraine and need to backfill defense systems.
These two steps would right-size our relationship with Saudi Arabia AND help Ukraine.
Isabel Hardman/Spectator:
Will sacking Kwarteng be enough to save Truss’s premiership?
Tory MPs have spent the past week doing a lot of writing. The first thing many of them have been writing is a letter to Sir Graham Brady calling for a vote of no confidence. Even though the rules currently don’t allow one for a year after the election of a new leader, those who’ve sent their missives expect that he will reach a point where he has to tell the Prime Minister there would be a vote if it weren’t for that rule – and that the time has come to do something.
The second bit of writing is a list of things Truss can do to save her skin. Almost all of those I’ve spoken to over the past few days have included ‘get a new Chancellor’ on that list. Yesterday, it seemed No. 10 had agreed with that notion, with aides suggesting to supportive Tory MPs that the current turmoil needed to be blamed squarely on Kwarteng to give Truss a chance of a reset.