A month ago, I wrote a post exploring whether the Indiana Senate race might be a possible Democratic pickup. At the time, there was only one poll of this race, but it showed incumbent Republican Senator Todd Young leading his Democratic challenger and mayor of Hammond, Tom McDermott, by just 3% and garnering only 45% of the vote. The analysts have all declared this seat Safe/Sold Republican, but this is a pretty poor showing for a well-funded incumbent Republican in a red state.
In September, there was another poll of this race by ARW Strategies (and sponsored by IndyPolitics.com). This poll also shows Republican Todd Young with just a small 2% lead: 39% to 37%. And Young’s 39% of the vote is a long way from 50%.
Republicans in Indiana also have a very problematic (and Trumpian) candidate for Secretary of State as this DailyKos post explains: “Election integrity" candidate for Indiana Secretary of State dinged for apparent vote fraud. This might sour some Indiana Republican voters on voting for their party this year.
Indiana is a very red state but there is a possibility that this is a sleeper race in which energized young people and women turn out in force while disaffected Republicans stay at home or vote for Democrats, just as they did in the 4 special elections around the country over the summer.
If women and young people really do turn out in big numbers, there might be some other sleeper races in other states that will also surprise us. Tell everyone you know to turn out and vote, especially in states like Indiana!
Tom McDermott web site