[Voice your opinion in poll at bottom. Think Pelosi will expel #SeditionCaucus members in December? Think Manchin and Sinema will save the day?]
For two years now, the specter of the GOP retaking control of the House has been looming, citing the “conventional wisdom” that the current president’s party always loses ground at the midterms.
But that pattern doesn’t factor in massive pushback against the overturning of Roe, the necessity of Republicans citing #TheBigLie to win their primaries and go all in in the generals, and the growing repulsion of the GOP’s racism, misogyny, and xenophobia. They have shown, in no uncertain terms that they aren’t conservatives, they are now #CORPservatives, in servitude only to corporate and billionaire donors.
If only a third of America could see these glaring truths. When the hatred, projection, and division are stripped away, there’s nothing for today’s GOP to offer on their side of the ledger. No actual accomplishments, because they’ve been #ProSTRIFE all along, fighting to worsen the middle class’s economic security on every front with all that money going to tax cuts for the rich.
And through Rick Scott they’ve even floated a platform that will threaten Social Security and take away all the gains that families have enjoyed through Biden’s Economic Recovery Act. They use bravado to obscure that their voters are rubes, voting against their best interests because they’ve swallowed the sludge that demonizes Dems in the most hellish - and unbelievable - ways possible.
But not all those formerly enthralled have stayed that way. Zealots will always remain, but the independents might finally be leaning a bit blue.
So since the GOP can’t win on merit, they must cheat. They’ve done that through partisan gerrymandering, using state and local officials to restrict early voting then yank precincts to create long lines in Black neighborhoods. And they’ve even had to post armed intimidators near ballot drop boxes and train a small army of poll watchers who contest the votes of people they don’t know to their very faces.
Why? It’s all to preserve the #RepubloFascism they’ve put into place to retain unjust power, and thus keep those billionaire and corporate donors feeding their campaigns and doling out lavish lobbyist perks. Their personal greed is more important than democracy itself.
Some may have been hesitant to go this far. But Trumpism, and the necessity of staying in the ex-president’s good graces, have forced any sliver of integrity out of almost all GOP candidates on the ballot on Tuesday.
What can Democrats do if conventional wisdom does play out, at least on the surface? What if the Republicans do take the House, either through dubious ways or on the strength of a flood of dark-money advertising?
Republicans have already laid out their plans to kneecap Democratic efforts as soon as Kevin McCarthy takes the gavel as the new Speaker of the House. They will start a flurry of unfounded investigations, likely looking to impeach Biden for anything they can think of or create out of whole cloth. And they intend to use this winter’s vote on raising our nation’s debt ceiling limit as their vehicle for ending Social Security and other “entitlements” as they call them.
What are the Dem’s options to prevent that critical leverage and mitigate the damage the GOP intends to inflict on America across the boards?
Some are within the realm of reason. Some are so radical they might even make Mitch McConnell blush.
Let’s assume that Republicans win a small majority in the House and that Democrats add three seats in the Senate. This is how things looked a few weeks ago.
The path with the least resistance that Democrats can employ straight away is to lean on Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to stay with Dems and vote in December to end the ceiling on US debt all together. Being a budget matter, the process of reconciliation could be in play if it’s up to Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough.
By rule, Dems used their last stab at reconciliation to pass the ERA. But the parliamentarian can allow another bite of the apple if warranted. MacDonough was appointed by Democrat Harry Reid, so we’re not swimming against the current here. But she’s been very cautious to retain a non-partisan stance thus far. The difference now, though, is that the GOP has flat-out stated that they will hold America’s credit rating hostage to threaten Social Security.
But if she doesn’t allow that, there are self-serving reasons for Manchin and Sinema to rebrand their obstructionist legacies by changing their stances on the filibuster. With three new Dem Senators taking the floor in January, Manchin’s and Sinema’s time in the limelight, however damaging that might have been, would essentially be over. Their leverage would be gone, and they’d return to obscurity.
That 53-47 split will likely insure that the filibuster will be drastically changed to nullify the blanket ability to stop legislation in its tracks in 2023. It could be retired altogether. So being that this would be the outcome eventually anyway, Manchin and Sinema could instead opt to be true heroes, ending the filibuster early and allowing the passage of a host of huge, impactful bills in the lame-duck session of Congress just weeks away.
Manchin and Sinema could then provide the votes that would give Biden the legislative wins that would insure that he, or another Democrat should he choose not to run, can campaign on tangible gains in the lives of every voter. Rhetoric could no longer override results if people spend less on drugs and healthcare, see the infrastructure programs blossoming around them, and benefit from cuts to educational and elder care costs.
With the debt ceiling debacle in the rear view mirror, December could then see the Freedom to Vote Act and the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Act pass while Republicans would be powerless to stop them. Included would be a shift to public not private funding of campaigns along with restrictions on the dark money fueling superPACs that are supposed to only exist for the public good.
In time, severely gerrymandered districts could be redrawn before 2024 if they are proven not to comply with the two election protection laws.
But a month from now, Roe could be restored. Same-sex marriages preserved. Heck, even DC could finally get her statehood. All this could be possible because the filibuster need not be protected anymore.
Why would Manchin and Sinema finally fall in line? Perhaps it could be because of the specter of what Republicans intend to do to paralyze the House even if they lose it.
They will claim unfounded fraud as usual, trying to hold things up in court to keep Democratic House seats empty as the next Congress begins. That’s one way they might try to keep Pelosi from retaining her Speakership, keeping votes for her out of the building.
Frankly, Democrats might choose the same strategy if they lose. However, GOP transgressions are not likely to be convenient fantasies. There may be a trail of evidence on election tampering in multiple states, particularly in the ballots not counted or discarded for fabricated reasons.
Never has a Congress started with so many seats in flux. Let’s hope that if Republicans play that card, Nancy is ready to go nuclear on them.
Between now and the end of the year, there could be votes to expel dozens of members of the House, the ones who joined the #SeditionCaucus and voted not to certify the electoral college tally. With all the evidence we now know, many sitting congressmen carry the weight of that connection not only for January 6th, but in the conspiracies that led up to it including the fake slates of electors.
What if Pelosi called up all who have the most blood on their hands and held expulsion votes on them in December? Could that also keep them from assuming their seats as incumbents? Wouldn’t the 14th Amendment dictate that they would be forbidden to hold public office ever again? And if so, wouldn’t those seats remain empty until a special election is held to fill them?
This is the smoking hardball that Pelosi could throw, even if Dems do lose the House.
So will the Senate Parliamentarian allow Dems to save the world’s economy? Will Manchin and Sinema make the move from goats (in the old-fashioned sense) to heroes? Will Nancy hit the #SeditionCaucus with a big dose of Constitutional justice?
Voice your ideas on that in the poll below, then add comments if you like.