The motivation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a bit of a mystery. The commentariat has emphasized geopolitical factors such as Ukraine’s expressed desire to join the European Union, a desire that led to the Orange and Maidan Revolutions. This forced the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych to resign and flee to Russia. The Ukrainian perception of itself as a free and sovereign nation, separate from Russia, emerged from these upheavals. (https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/how-ukraines-orange-revolution-shaped-twenty-first-century-geopolitics/)
But this separation from Russia did not extend into the religious realm. The Russian government and the Russian Orthodox Church are deeply intertwined and the Patriarch of Moscow is one of Putin’s strongest supporters.
The Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Church was a unified entity under the authority of Moscow since 1618. This changed in October 2018, when the Ukrainian Orthodox Church officially split from Russia. It did this with the approval of the Patriarchate of Constantinople who is considered the “First Among Equals” of the world’s Orthodox Churches. This split represented a major advancement in the separation of Ukraine from Russian political, economic and religious subservience.
The reaction in Russia was furious. About a third of the Russian Orthodox Church’s 36,000 parishes were in Ukraine. With the schism, the Russian Orthodox Church lost its spiritual and symbolic authority over Ukraine. Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Patriarch Kirill strongly condemned the Ukrainian action. Patriarch Kirill has supported the invasions of eastern Ukraine and urged in the name of their common religion that the Ukrainian troops not resist Russia.
WHY NOW?
Putin has claimed repeatedly that Ukraine is not a real country. He bases this assertion in part on the notion that the Ukrainians are religiously Russian Orthodox people who share 300 years of subservience to the Moscow Patriarchate. That story held until 2018. Before that, the invasion of Ukraine was justified by claims that Russian speakers in Donbas were victims of repression, and the same arguments were used earlier in Crimea - to protect Russian – speakers there from ‘far-right extremists.”
The current invasion began with similar claims, but the rhetoric has shifted to assertions of “one Russia,” a claim that relies heavily on the religious unity that Ukraine has ruptured in the interest of its own sovereignty. Putin would not be the first autocrat to buttress authority using religion. He needs the support of the Russian Orthodox Church to provide moral authority to his governance and the invasion.
Asking the wrong questions inevitably leads to wrong answers. At least part of the answer to “Why?” is this religious schism. Ignoring that influence will lead to incomplete and unsustainable outcomes.