In a Chinese editorial entitled, "Nancy Pelosi tests positive for COVID-19, trip to Asia to be postponed", published in the official Chinese online media source, Global Times, China reports that Nancy Pelosi was set to make a “surprise” visit to Taiwan on Sunday, April 10, 2022. Pelosi’s contraction of COVID-19 delayed her trip.
The editorial contains the usual Chinese complaints about US support for the “secessionist” Taiwanese. However, the editorial is merely part of a larger group of articles, the most belligerent of which is entitled, "Pelosi's Taiwan visit must be disrupted". The choice of the word “disrupted” is literal, proposing Chinese options, which, in part, follow:
First, it could be announced that the airspace over Taiwan is closed on April 10th and a flight ban imposed. The PLA could deploy a large number of warplanes to fly around the island to ensure that the ban is implemented. Pelosi's provocation would prompt China to exercise its sovereignty over Taiwan in this new way since "Taiwan independence" secessionist moves would accelerate reunification.
Second, the PLA warplanes could fly over Taiwan island on the day of Pelosi's visit, either from the west to east cross the Strait or from the direction of Pelosi's plane to the island, for which the PLA should be prepared for a full contingency. If Taiwan's forces open fire on our warplanes, the PLA should shoot down Taiwan's aircraft or carry out a destructive strike on Taiwan's force bases from which the missiles are launched.
The stated purpose of the article is to dissuade a Pelosi visit to Taiwan, but, if it happens:
We should use this crisis to expose Washington's sinister plot of messing up Asia.
China notes that the Pelosi visit would not be the first visit by the #3 person in line for US Presidential succession: House Speaker Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan 25 years ago in 1997. However, China distinguishes Gingrich’s visit from Pelosi’s visit because President Clinton did not endorse Gingrich’s visit while China asserts President Biden endorses a Pelosi visit, both being Democrats.
If China responds to assert Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan viz-a-viz a Pelosi visit, by the means set forth above, the Chinese say the US will attempt to “vilify China”, equating China-Taiwan to Russia-Ukraine. The Chinese argue that China-Taiwan is not like Russia-Ukraine. The Chinese argue that the on-going civil war between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan never resulted a peace treaty signed by China (even if Taiwan unilaterally declared "peace" with mainland China a few years back). The on-going Chinese civil war undergirds the “One China” policy that China believes the US is incrementally abandoning.
The US first agreed to the “One China” policy in 1972 via the Shanghai Communiqué, by which President Nixon famously “opened up” China to US corporations, creating the trope, "only Nixon could go to China". The Shanghai Communiqué also forced the US to abandon the notion that Taiwan represented “China”, that the mainland was “occupied” by illegitimate usurpers, and that Taiwan should continue to represent China in the UN. The US has reaffirmed the “One China” policy from time-to-time, most recently by President Biden in November 2021. Yet US arms sales to Taiwan continue unabated under the Biden Administration, deepening and reinforcing Chinese suspicion.
Because of the “One China” policy set forth in the US-China Shanghai Communiqué, the Chinese resent long-standing US arms sales to Taiwan, claiming that unless Pelosi cancels her visit to Taiwan, now is the time to implement “forceful measures” against Taiwan (and the US):
It should be pointed out that any severe countermeasures taken by the mainland side doesn't mean the outbreak of a full-scale war in the Taiwan Straits. We can also announce the objectives and plans of our operation in advance. It will be another matter if the Taiwan side takes irrational confrontational actions and causes the situation to spiral upward. But I don't think the Taiwan authorities have the guts to do so.
The last sentence is especially bellicose. And ominous. China’s military, expanding economy, and global power are more extensive today than they were in 1997. China’s official line of “playing with fire” in recent days and years also reflects Chinese self-awareness of its increased power.
The Chinese claim the information about a Pelosi visit to Taiwan was leaked by Japan, a US ally, perhaps as a trial balloon, but will China take the measures that it claims it will take if Pelosi visits Taiwan? Would the US risk escalating a fight with China over Taiwan during the Ukraine war, when the current Ukraine geopolitical ramifications are eroding the EU economy and causing soaring food prices throughout the world, suggesting a potential [inevitable?] repeat of the 2008 food riots in the Middle East? Not to mention the death and displacement of Ukrainians, along with the destruction of Ukraine cities and infrastructure.
Furthermore, what would the US response against China be, if, for example, China initiated a “no fly zone” over Taiwan? [The term “no fly zone” was used in an earlier, now truncated, Chinese article about Pelosi’s visit.] Would the US militarily intervene? Would the US institute global sanctions against China’s second (or first?) economy of the world, along with potent Chinese counter-sanctions? While no one expects the US to do nothing, limited US-China warfare may not end as the US intends.
Is the final US reckoning over China-Taiwan coming more quickly than anyone thought? Can the US sever Taiwan from China once and for all? Or will China succeed in neutering US military influence over Taiwan, much as the US neutered Soviet military influence over Cuba in 1962?
Did the Chinese maxim get it right when it says, “It’s better to be a dog in times of peace than a human in times of war”? I suspect many Ukrainians would agree.