Fiona Hill: "Ukraine’s the breadbasket of Europe. And in many respects, kind of Ukraine has become the global breadbasket now over time. And every time you have a war in a country in which it interferes with the planting and the agricultural development, you see famine coming into work — Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere. And we’re heading in this direction now. These attacks on Odessa and on the fuel depots, for example, we have to start thinking about the implications of this.
"Odessa remains the main port on the Black Sea for the export of grain and other foodstuffs. If Odessa is destroyed along with Mariupol, Melitopol and all these other parts, where is agricultural production going to be shipped from? And then even more fundamental, how is it going to be grown in the first place? How are the Ukrainians going to be planting their fields in the Black Earth Zone this spring?
"This is the period. And this isn’t happening, because it doesn’t happen in a war time. There’s land mines all over the place. Think about all of the other countries in the world where we’ve seen this kind of devastation. And this is happening in one of the most fertile regions of the world, a place, along with Russia, that is one of the major producers of all kinds of grains. And some countries in the Middle East are completely dependent on Ukraine for their foodstuffs.”
even though Denmark plans to reduce emissions by 70% from 1990 levels by 2030 and will be 100% non-fossil fuels for electricity within the next 5 years, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is speeding up the transition away from fossil fuels but it is a huge challenge, even in Denmark. Other countries dependent upon Russian fossil fuels are in much worse positions.
Oddly enough, there was no mention of climate in the conversation between NYTimes’ Ezra Klein and Dr Fiona Hill and scarcely any notice of climate in most of the USAmerican discussion of this war I’ve read, heard, or seen. One exception is Prof Timothy Snyder who has made it clear that he believes this to be a “hydrocarbon war.” Dr Hill does mention an embargo of Russian fossil fuels as part of our sanctions which would be a mirror image of the 1973 oil embargo and energy crisis, this time the buyers refusing to buy rather than the sellers refusing to sell, an intriguing historical resonance.
Reading about the impending famine as a result of the Ukraine war, a thought came to me:
An international cohort of noncombatants
clears the mines and
plants the Black Earth Zone this Spring
to avoid famine
as a nonviolent protest
Perhaps with José Andrés and the people of
World Central Kitchen,
taking the opportunity to practice
agricultural techniques maximizing
carbon capture
and improving soil fertility.
It is probably impossible but
it’s certainly necessary.
4/8/22
Last I looked, there were at least 16 wars going on now all over the world. I wouldn’t be surprised if almost all of them were connected, by more than arms dealers.