Voters in France went to the polls on Sunday to choose their parliamentary representatives, the 577 members of the Assemblée Nationale.
Preliminary returns indicate that Macron’s candidates and the newly formed coalition of the Left, the Nouvelle Union Populaire Écologique et Sociale, or NUPES, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, are tied for the lead. with 25.2% of the vote, each.
2022 Legislative elections | The NUPES and Ensemble (Macron’s coalition) are neck and neck in the first round according to early estimations, on a record low turnout. |
Marine Le Pen’s extreme-right Rassemblement National came in third with 18.9%, the center-right Les Républicains finished fourth with 13.7%. These numbers are subject to change as the votes are counted.
Round 1 of the election determines which candidates qualify for Round 2 on June 19.
In this election, candidates with over 50% of the vote and over 25% of registered voters are declared instant winners without a second round. Otherwise, any candidate with over 50% of the vote and/or 12.5% of registered voters qualifies for Round 2. In almost all districts, this amounts to the same thing as the top two, although it’s possible but not likely, for three candidates to qualify.
At this point, it’s too early to project how many seats each bloc will win but it’s safe to say that, in most districts, Round 2 will be a choice between a Macronist and a NUPES candidate with the other blocs eliminated, except in parts of the country where the Rassemblement National has a strong following and may qualify.
289 seats are required for a majority in the Assemblée Nationale. Right now, Macron’s party and its allies have 324 seats. According to Le Monde’s English-language edition, the most likely outcome is that they will retain a slim majority. → www.lemonde.fr/...
It’s also possible that they’ll have the largest bloc without a majority. In that case, they’d have to look for votes in the other blocs to pass legislation. If the NUPES were somehow able to finish with a majority, Macron’s Prime Minister and Cabinet would be swept out and French politics would be turned upside down.
Currently, the various parties of the Left have 60 seats. It appears likely that under their new label as the NUPES, they will, at least, become the main opposition to the government, if not the majority in the Assemblée.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is not known for understatement, declares victory. (Readers may fact check his statement, if they’d like).
The NUPES finish first and will be on the (Round 2) ballot in more than 500 districts. The presidential party is beaten and defeated. For the first time in the 5th Republic, an elected president fails to obtain a majority. |
Marine Le Pen, not quite conceding anything yet, but since her candidates are going to be eliminated almost everywhere, it almost sounds like she’s endorsing the Left for Round 2 when she says not to let Macron have a majority. She’ll have to put out a follow-up to clarify, if she hasn’t already done so.
It is important not to let Macron have an absolute majority. With elected officials from the RN, you will be sure to be represented by deputies close to you, who courageously carry out a recovery project for the country and for the people!
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Updates to follow.
Sunday, Jun 12, 2022 · 10:20:09 PM +00:00
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Mark Lippman
Éric Zemmour, who ran in the district that covers the Mediterranean beach town of Saint-Tropez, has been eliminated in Round 1. Zemmour is the neo-fascist TV host who ran for President this year and finished fourth with a campaign based on the racist Great Replacement theory.