History can oftentimes pivot in a matter of weeks, days, or even hours. Ukraine's sudden advance in the Kharkiv region will be seen as one of those pivots, not just for Ukraine but for the European continent as a whole. And while our gaze remains fixed on what is occurring in the Donbas and Southern Ukraine, the situation in Eastern Europe is already shifting as a result. Belarus and specifically Lukashenko will increasingly find themselves in the crosshairs.
As Putin’s only real ally in this war, Lukashenko is beholden to Russian power and intimidation to keep his tenuous grip on power. A large portion of the Belarussian population is increasingly hostile as was seen in the protests of 2020 and more recently the instances of sabotage to stymie the movement of Russian forces.
Pundits and others have recently been asking how far Ukraine will go to secure victory against Russia. The liberation of all territory that has been illegally occupied since the Spring of 2014 is without question. But does Ukraine need to actually invade Russia to force them to the peace table? I think we may be looking at the wrong country here. Rather than invading Russia proper, which has a doctrine to use nuclear weapons to protect their territory, Ukraine may consider an invasion of Belarus instead.
The situation on the ground in Belarus is far more favorable to Ukraine than to invading Russia. A significant portion of the populace in Belarus is on the point of revolt and does not share the Russian ambitions of restoring their empire. A sizable contingent of Belarussians are already fighting alongside Ukrainians and can easily induce revolution and assistance within Belarus itself. The Belarussian military is a Soviet facsimile without any real modernization and is reliant on Russia protecting them, and thus will be at a severe disadvantage to a larger, better equipped, and veteran Ukrainian military. While Russia’s own military will be exhausted from the war in Ukraine, Putin will not be able to charge in to save the day until his military is rebuilt.
And make no mistake, Belarus is a belligerent in this conflict. The use of Belarussian territory to invade Ukraine and providing the shortest path to threatening Kyiv while officially giving aid and comfort to Russia is a clear Casus Belli by any measure. Also, Belarus is now cornered in three directions by unfriendly nations with only its Eastern border with Russia being the one to not be concerned about.
And this leads to my final point. Because Lukashenko is actually very concerned about his Eastern border as Belarus could be the next target for Russia after its colossal failure in Ukraine. Unlike Ukraine, a Russian invasion of Belarus will not engender Western sympathy and support as was shown towards Ukraine. With an obsolete military even by Russian standards and Russian forces already in strategic locations, similar to the situation in Crimea before its take over in 2014, Belarus could rapidly fall to a Russian military advance, especially if a deal is made with Lukashenko and his upper echelon supporters to allow the invasion to occur in exchange for a plane ride out of the country stuffed with cash and gold in the cargo hold.
And this would be a serious threat to Ukraine as Russia extends its reach along its Northern border and gets a life-saving political and military win for Putin to keep him in power. In order to prevent such a scenario from occurring, Ukraine may have to seriously consider bringing this war into Belarus. Ukraine, unlike Russia, has historically never harbored dreams of imperial ambition as they themselves have repeatedly been the victims of such ambition. To liberate Belarus from the grip of Putin and Lukashenko would provide the final peace for Europe for the remainder of the 21st century. With a pro-Western government already formed and in exile, Belarus is more than ready to join the family of nations.