On Wednesday, President Volodomyr Zelenskyy visited the recently liberated city of Izyum and thanked the Ukrainian forces there for their amazing work in freeing not just that city but the whole of Kharkiv Oblast in a counteroffensive that stunned the Russian military, and much of the world.
Once again seeing Zelenskyy out on the streets, talking to the troops, and even walking around in an area that was under Russian occupation just days before is in sharp contrast to the isolation and secrecy of Vladimir Putin. There is not a table long enough to get Putin to sit down anywhere inside the war zone he created.
Whatever happens with Zelenskyy following the war, there seems little doubt he is just the man Ukraine needed in this hour. Still, as one tweet pointed out, no matter how satisfying the Ukrainian president’s visit to Izyum may have been, there’s at least one Ukrainian soldier who had a better day.
As Zelenskyy was speaking to the troops and meeting some of the shell-shocked residents of the city that had been under Russian occupation for months, there were still reports of Russian soldiers either surrendering or being captured within a few kilometers of his location.
The term “mopping up” has a particularly grim connotation in military parlance. It usually involves the last scattered forces of a routed enemy being eliminated as the victors march in to occupy an area. No doubt there’s still some of that kind of mopping up going on across Kharkiv Oblast today as Ukraine works to consolidate and secure the gains it made over the last week. However, with Russia retreating so quickly and from such a large area that Ukraine still hasn’t been able to officially liberate it all, it should also be expected that a lot of Russian forces simply got left behind.
That’s especially true of Russian troops on the former front line in areas south and west of Izyum. One moment they were among the most important units, holding the line of Russia’s invasion. The next they were in a backwater, many kilometers away from the action. Many of these units have tried to make their way across the suddenly lost territory to Russian positions in Luhansk. Others have simply put down their rifles and put up their hands.
Some of these Russian soldiers are being caught while attempting to reach the drastically changed front line. Some are surrendering in place. A few are attempting to hold out in bunkers or buildings. It’s not working out well for that final group.
In any case, the absolute victory in Kharkiv is so great that it has left Ukraine with a lot of work to do in terms of getting to every liberated village and town, assessing local conditions, helping the citizens who were trapped so long behind enemy lines, dealing with sick and wounded civilians, restoring infrastructure destroyed by Russia, sorting through the enormous stockpiles of ammunition and other materiel left behind by fleeing Russian troops, and dealing with thousands of Russian prisoners. It’s … a lot.
All of that might give Russia something of a head start on digging in at the next line of defense, except no one seems to quite know where that will be. Some Russian forces seem to have positioned themselves just across the Oskil River, which is a natural defensive position. On the other hand, Russian statements indicate that they were regrouping out of Kharkiv Oblast, and the Oskil is not the boundary between Kharkiv and Luhansk. The actual Luhansk boundary is pretty much nothing more than a line on the map represented on the ground by a stream here, a road there, nothing at all in another place; not exactly the best place to lay down a 100-kilometer-long defensive line. But on the other hand … you get the idea. Ukrainian forces are already across the Oskil in at least two locations, which doesn’t make the river all that great a boundary either.
On Wednesday, there are reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the river at two new places: near Borova and Kivsharivka. How these crossing took place isn’t clear as neither location is reported to have an intact bridge. Still, this isn’t the kilometer-wide Dnipro or a section of the Oskil that’s been turned into a reservoir by a dam. Ukraine may have simply brought in bridging equipment. They may even have used bridging equipment helpfully left behind by the Russians.
No matter how it happened, the Oskil River seems to be a porous barrier, and Russian forces attempting to set up on the eastern side of the river are in danger of being hit by Ukrainian forces moving north or south along the east bank. Already on Tuesday there was a report of a Russian convoy hit by Ukrainian troops all the way over at Kuzemivka, across the border in Luhansk Oblast, though it’s unclear if this represents a significant force on the Ukrainian side or just a few scouts.
All of this is why reports that Russian forces have withdrawn from places like Svatove may or may not be true, but are easy to believe. If Ukrainian forces are across the Oskil, there is simply not much in their way.
That’s also what makes the fighting going on by Lyman so important when it comes to extending Ukraine’s counteroffensive gains. Zelenskyy even mentioned Lyman as the next target for liberation. That city doesn’t just offer a base that would open up areas across both the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets, it’s connected by rail and highway to other locations captured in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Holding Lyman could make fast transport of troops and supplies much more possible. Plus it would be another very notable reversal for Russia inside Luhansk Oblast.
In the hours after the liberation of Izyum, there were many announcements that Lyman had already been freed by Ukrainian forces. (I even dropped this news in a premature headline.) What became clear over the next day was that while Ukrainian forces have crossed the Siverskyi Donets and retaken the southern suburbs, they were really only on the edge of the city itself.
As Russian forces withdrew from Izyum, it now seems that a significant number moved into Lyman, perhaps aware that Ukrainian troops were just outside the city. So rather than an easy time pushing out a small garrison in a lightly held city, Ukraine seems to be in the position at Lyman of facing a city where Russia has a large force in place—though that force may not be as organized or well-entrenched as it would have been had it been in Lyman for a more extended period.
Both Russia and Ukraine seem to be moving additional forces into Lyman as fast as they can move them down the highways. Unlike Izyum, this could well become an extended fight, taking place within a city, which would be a severe test of Ukraine’s new weaponry, training, and tactics. Shaky video shows what appears to be a line of infantry vehicles moving in from the Ukrainian side, so Ukraine appears ready to take this fight to the street. So … not exactly a break following all the action in Kharkiv.
In the area around Lyman, there no longer seems to be any indication that Ukrainian troops are pressing into Lysychansk or making an appearance in Severodonetsk. It seems likely the initial appearances of Ukrainian forces in those areas were a combination of exuberance and keeping levels of Russian panic high as the Kharkiv counteroffensive met with massive success. Still, I’ll wait another day or two before ceding this area back to red.
One spot that I did change today was Kreminna. After local officials announced on Tuesday that the town was free of Russian forces, they raised the Ukrainian flag and laid out a welcome mat for Ukrainian troops. Unfortunately, overnight the Russians returned, tore down the flag, and turned off the local internet. Whether any troops are now stationed in the town is unclear.
Oskil also got flipped back to “in dispute” on Russian claims that they still have forces in the town. However, Ukraine seems in full control of the surrounding area, and it’s not clear how seriously to take Russia’s statements.
From Ukrainian sources on Telegram, there are also reports that forces have moved northeast out of Sviatohirsk, with the intention of bypassing Lyman and hitting targets deeper within Luhansk. No confirmation of this at the moment.
Meanwhile, in Kherson, reports are mixed. There continue to be claims about Russian forces negotiating for a wholesale surrender or withdrawal, as well as claims that Russia is deserting front-line positions and pulling back closer to the city. At the same time, there are reports that Russia is preparing locations on both the east and west side of the Dnipro River for the possible installation of a new pontoon bridge. Expect a deeper look at this area in the next update.
No one envies Oryx this week as counting up the Russian equipment captured or destroyed in Kharkiv seems like an unending task.