On Saturday, we took a look at how Russia is burning through what seemed at first to be an inexhaustible supply of tanks, and how current rates of production in Russia can’t begin to replace the rate of losses they’re seeing in repeated, poorly planned offensives. Meanwhile, though Ukraine has lost only a fraction as much of its heavy equipment, the manufacturing rate of much of this equipment within Ukraine is effectively zero. On tanks, that’s been true since 2014, when Russia’s earlier invasion occupied Crimea and captured the plants where vital components of Ukraine’s T-84 tank were made.
That means Ukraine is only replacing its lost tanks with those coming in from outside sources. To date, Ukraine has received just over 400 upgraded Soviet tanks provided by Western allies. That’s almost exactly the number of Ukrainian tanks that are confirmed losses. Considering that Ukraine’s actual losses are probably well in excess of the documented losses, it would seem that Ukraine’s tank force is also being thinned out, though not to the extent seen by Russia.
However, there’s another factor. One that shows Ukraine now likely has hundreds of more tanks than it did when the invasion began.
Here’s an updated table of the tanks that have already been sent to Ukraine, as well as those promised in the coming months.
Tanks being sent to Ukraine
Nation |
Tank |
Number |
Delivered |
Czech Republic |
T-72M1 |
35 |
Apr 2022 |
Poland |
T-72M |
290 |
Apr 2022 |
North Macedonia |
T-72A |
8 |
Aug 2022 |
Slovenia |
M-55S |
28 |
Oct 2022 |
Netherlands |
T-72EA |
72 |
Jan 2023 |
United Kingdom |
Challenger 2 |
14 |
Mar 2023* |
Germany |
Leopard 2A6 |
14 |
Mar 2023* |
Canada |
Leopard 2A4 |
4 |
Mar 2023* |
Poland |
Leopard 2A4 |
14 |
Mar 2023* |
Norway |
Leopard 2A4 |
8 |
TBA |
United States |
Abrams M1A2 |
31 |
TBA |
Poland |
PT-91 |
30 |
TBA |
Denmark |
Leopard 1A5 |
100 |
TBA |
*Several tanks are expected to first enter the country “around the end of March,” but don’t expect that to be a precise date.
Though the appearance of Western tanks in Ukraine is something that has everyone excited (in Russia, it’s a different kind of excitement), the actual number of tanks promised so far for this year is considerably lower than it was in the six months after Russia began their illegal invasion. That could be a serious concern, especially if some of the big predicted offensives and counteroffensives get underway.
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But here’s that one more magic factor. As documented by Oryx, Ukraine has captured 547 Russian tanks since the war began. Meanwhile, Russia has captured just 143 Ukrainian tanks. That’s a net gain of 404 tanks. Russia still remains the largest single source of foreign tanks supplied to Ukraine. In fact, at this point, with those T-72EAs from the Netherlands still working their way into the country, Russia has likely “donated” more tanks to Ukraine than all other nations combined.
Granted, many of those Russian tanks need some repairs and repainting, but many of them have come back into service quickly. In fact, some of the 143 tanks reportedly captured by Russia were Russian tanks that they managed to grab back.
But here’s the overall picture: Russia has lost a documented 1,727 tanks, according to Oryx. Ukraine puts Russia’s actual losses at 3,286. At just under two times the documented losses, that actually seems fairly reasonable. Looking at the rate at which Russia is able to manufacture new tanks, or prepare tanks from storage, their available stockpile of tanks is down by around 3,000.
On the Ukraine side, they’ve officially lost 461. Scale that up by the difference between reported and confirmed on the Russian side, and Ukraine may have lost as many as 870 tanks. But when you adjust for the 433 tanks sent to Ukraine from the West, and the 404 tank difference in their “trade” with Russia, Ukraine’s maximum losses so far in the invasion are about … 33 tanks. If the number of tanks lost is actually closer to the documented number, then they could have more tanks now than at the outset.
However, the number of tanks promised to Ukraine over the next year is just 215. That’s a significant decrease over what was sent in 2022. Granted, many of the new tanks on the way are Western tanks that are expected to greatly outfight the Russian T-72s and T-80s.
For any number of reasons, that had better be the case.
The New York Times has a detailed look at the Russian attack on medical volunteers that took the life of paramedic Pete Reed, among others. The frame-by-frame analysis at the time of the attack shows that the volunteer group was not the victim of random shelling, as has been widely reported. Instead, that analysis shows:
...that Mr. Reed, who was unarmed, died in a targeted strike by a guided missile almost certainly fired by Russian troops.
Reed was engaged in helping to evacuate civilians from Bakhmut at the time of the attack and was standing among vehicles bearing markings to show they were part of an aid convoy that included a Red Cross ambulance. The image of the missile in flight is truly extraordinary, freezing the action with the missile just yards from impact. It provides compelling evidence that this was not an accidental strike, but a deliberate targeting of aid workers.
Meanwhile, in Modolva…
On Monday, Moldovan president Maia Sandu reported that there was a Russian plot to overthrow her government. This was followed early on Tuesday with the closure of airspace over all of Moldova. This came following was was reported to be a Russian drone flying near the capitol on Monday and after. Sunday was a day of general unrest in Moldova, with protests and marches from opposition political parties.
Last week, the Associated Press reported that Ukrainian intelligence had intercepted plans for the “destruction of Moldova.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy apparently briefed Sandu concerning these plans when the two met at the European Union meeting in Brussels. That plan was described as being “very similar to the one devised by Russia to take over Ukraine.”
Moldova has often been overlooked throughout the crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the war in its larger neighbor has resulted in a restriction of natural gas reaching Moldova as well as very high levels of inflation. The economy there is rocky, with inflation running over 25% for several consecutive quarters, and there have been increasing reports of violence.
Russia has about 1,500 troops in the Transnistria region within Moldova, creating the kind of carved-out “breakaway” region that it has funded and supplied in Ukraine, Georgia, and elsewhere. Moscow has used the support of these regions as an excuse for invasion, and could do the same in Transnistria—though getting significant forces into Moldova at this point would mean flying them over Ukraine, which seems unlikely to go well.
When it comes to its standing military, Moldova is ranked number 143 out of 145 professional armies in the world. Though its population is better than 2.6 million, it reportedly has only 6,500 full-time forces, and the training and equipment of these troops are not highly regarded. It does not list any tanks in its arsenal and has relatively few armored vehicles of any kind. The original Russian forces in Transnistria had over 100 tanks, but it’s unclear how many (if any) of these still remain.
Reportedly escorted away from the border by a Dutch F-35A.
Speaking of the Su-27, there are reports this morning that the U.S. is sending Su-27s it obtained for training and evaluation to Ukraine. This hasn’t been confirmed. Ukraine actually sold a pair of Su-27s to a private company some years ago, which bounced around between several companies that flew them primarily at air shows and exhibitions. The disarmed planes are reportedly now mothballed. Seems like it’s time to ship them home.
Politico has an article up talking about how the United States doesn’t intend to give Ukraine the long-range ATACMS missiles it wants, but the reason is not that it would make Putin angry or because they fear Ukraine would start taking potshots at random cities in Russia.
The Biden administration has given its Ukrainian counterparts another reason for not sending them much-wanted long-range missiles: The U.S. is concerned it wouldn’t have enough for itself.
About 4,000 of the missiles were apparently made. The U.S. has already used 600 and sold several hundred more so … this could be a legitimate concern if the U.S. military considers this a vital part of the arsenal.
Also hidden in that same article is another good point:
Whatever the U.S. package — and other pledges by partner nations — Ukraine is looking for more secrecy when those governments announce that assistance.
Officials in Kyiv are growing concerned that some of the more detailed lists coming out of Washington and elsewhere could risk providing too much information to their Russian foes, who can prepare defenses or countermeasures if they know what they’ll be facing, according to one of the people.
During the latest round of meetings, several of the packages promised to Ukraine came with price tags, but with few details, such as the promised package from Finland. That may be frustrating to those of us trying to track every piece of kit flowing into Ukraine, but hopefully, it’s even more frustrating to Russia.
If you read kos’ piece over the weekend about how one of those items that was just a little bullet point in one list of assistance has become a big factor in the war, go read. Then consider how much more effective such systems can be when they’re not getting publicized all the time.
Financial Times’ latest article warns that Russia is “massing aircraft on Ukraine border,” which is suspected to be part of whatever Vladimir Putin is going to talk about in the next week as the anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked, illegal invasion rolls around.
Analysts estimate that Russia still has around 80% of the air forces it held at the beginning of the invasion—mostly because they’ve used a limited number of aircraft in Ukraine out of fear of air defenses. There now seems to be a fear that Russia will throw its air force over the border in coordination with a land attack and that the massing of planes is a precursor to a major air assault.
However, this seems to ignore that if Russia’s Air Force has been “well preserved,” Ukraine’s air defense has actually become many times better. Russia’s continued attacks with missiles and drones have turned air defenses into one of the most critical requests of Ukraine, and one that Western nations have been more willing to meet since this is seen as a defensive system.
“What we really have to concentrate on now is Ukraine’s ability to defend the air and they’ll do that through air defence artillery, equipped with the proper ammunition. Fighter jets are not and will not be as capable against the Russian air force as an integrated air defence system,” said a US official.
The same article indicates that while the U.S. may not send F-16s to Ukraine directly, it could pave the way for the planes to be transferred to Ukraine from other allies. Considering that there are reportedly Ukrainian pilots and crews being trained on these planes, it seems as if some deal of this sort may already be in the works,