With reports coming out that Free Russian Forces (previously under the command of Ukraine, now being denied) have attacked into Russia towards Belgorod, it implies the Ukrainian army is ready to go up and down the line. This attack towards Belgorod WILL demand a movement of Russian forces to respond to this threat, as this threat could go all the way to Moscow if not stopped. As such, expect the Russians to thin their lines out somewhere in the next few days. Once they do, Ukraine will be ready to take advantage of whichever new weakness now exists for the Russians. Ukraine won’t want to wait for Russia to stabilize the Belgorod front and then send all the troops back. So expect the Ukrainian offense any day now once Ukraine sees where troops are pulled to be sent to Belgorod.
I don’t have a lot more time today, but I will link to articles related to the Free Russian Legion I wrote over a year ago now which suddenly have new relevance:
May 10th ,2022: Ukraine should consider sending the Free Russian Army to Belgorod to "recruit."
and:
April 15th, 2022: What happens if the Free Russian Army continues fighting after Ukraine wins?
Here’s the text of them to read here as comments are no longer open in either of them:
What happens if the Free Russian Army continues fighting after Ukraine wins?
April 15, 2022
With Ukraine’s formation of a military unit composed of Russian volunteers bearing the Free Russian white blue white flag, the Ukrainians have planted a seed of wildly unpredictable outcomes. Assuming an eventual Ukrainian victory, the big question becomes what happens to the Free Russian army after the war?
My own reading of the common assumption is that people expect the Free Russian forces to dissolve after the peace treaty and its members either become Ukrainian citizens or go abroad. Having fought against Russia, they would presumably be shot as traitors should they return to a Russia still controlled by Putin or similarly minded individuals. So there is no going back for them outside of regime change. And that regime change is commonly pictured as some collection of oligarchs successfully moving against Putin and installing Putin 2.0 which doesn’t help them personally (See Alexey Vlasenko’s comments below, Putin 2.0 might help them). There are also hopes for a general uprising of the people, yet as Putin’s numbers are still strong and severe repression of dissent continues without apparent blowback, it remains a possible but unlikely outcome.
But what happens if in the course of taking back the Donbas, Ukraine needs to conduct an end around the fortifications and enter Russia itself? Or maybe there is some military point to physically taking Belgorod with ground troops? From Ukraine’s perspective, this is simply a temporary measure born of military expediency and the territory is meant to be given back after hostilities end. But in the process of occupation, using a Free Russian formation to maintain order makes a certain level of sense as Russians may possibly be less resistant to Russian born troops as occupiers. Even if Ukraine itself doesn’t enter Russia to end the war, what happens should the Free Russian unit go rogue and enters Russia on its own to take Belgorod? Or a Russian general defects with his units and invites the Free Russian forces in (and he somehow answers to Free Russians, not just setting himself up as a warlord). Another possibility could be Free Russians taking Sevastopol as Russia would find it difficult to take back (if Crimea is again Ukrainian). Either way we have a situation at wars end where Free Russian troops control a small part of Russia.
There is also the possibility that even if Ukraine doesn’t control Russian territory at wars end, some part of the Free Russian army reconstitutes itself and starts launching attacks in Russia from Ukrainian territory. Does Ukraine stop them? How hard does Ukraine try to stop them? Will Ukraine say, “Thanks for risking your lives for Ukraine, but now we have to take action against you for trying to free your own country.”
Upon signing a peace treaty, the Russian army will be in a presumably much degraded state. They’ve already taken horrendous losses and still persist on the offensive. So it’s clear many more will need to die before Putin decides enough is enough, particularly if it involves losing the Donbas and Crimea.
Currently the Free Russian forces are fairly small in the greater scheme of things. But they could be the seed for a new Russian Civil War. If they control say Belgorod at the end of the war and are large enough to not be immediately annihilated by reduced Russian forces, what happens if they don’t consent to a peace treaty giving Belgorod back to the Russians? Will NATO continue to support them? Will Ukraine continue to support them? If they are supported, has the war really ended? If they are supported, they pose an existential threat to current Russian leadership and will nuclear weapons be used by Russia on Russian soil?
Will we continue to supply them then?
If we don’t support them, how are we to justify not supporting people fighting for their freedom after being so gung-ho supporting Ukraine? Yes Ukraine is fighting a defensive war and a civil war is different, but that rings hollow to me. I’ve no answers here, only questions. But I think they are important questions to start thinking about.
Ukraine should consider sending the Free Russian Army to Belgorod to "recruit."
May 10, 2022
I’ve previously written about the possible need for Ukraine to enter Russia to go around the Donbas fortifications, and also about the need for the US to consider what happens if the Free Russian forces in the Ukrainian army ended up in control of part of Russia. Ukraine is now taking back territory NE of Kharkiv in an apparent effort to cross the Donets River and retake Vovchansk cutting off a main supply line to Izyum. Unfortunately the bridges over the Donets all seem to have been destroyed, making that effort more difficult. However, the mission can still be accomplished by crossing into Russia to cut off the supply line closer to Belgorod. This presents an interesting opportunity. Instead of Ukrainian forces doing this, Ukraine could purposely have Free Russian forces enter Russia to take Belgorod and start a general uprising. Let’s first talk about why this could be a good strategy for Ukraine, and then cover just how likely it is for the Free Russian forces to be walking to their doom.
A civil war started by Free Russian forces in Belgorod would have multiple advantages for Ukraine. A Russian Civil War would potentially split Russian forces, threaten the rest of Russia in a way Ukraine never could, cut off the main supply hub for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and if big enough would most likely force a Russian withdrawal out of most or all of Ukraine.
A Free Russian force attacking and taking Belgorod would not necessarily be seen as an outside enemy by the populace of Russia. Certainly Russian News propaganda would portray them as fascist puppets of Ukraine and the West. But as news of it spread via back channels, it could possibly draw support from the occasional discontent we already see. If all those odd fires at Russian munitions factories are an inside job, then they would most likely be sympathetic to the Free Russians. An actual Civil War may shake loose a fear of working against Putin and while all of it wouldn’t be aligned with pro-democracy, it would certainly sow chaos. The Ukrainians/Free Russians could purposely release prisoners who had been treated well to spread stories of good food, respect, and decent living conditions in the hopes it could attract some percentage of current soldiers to switch sides to a Free Russian force. Switching to a Free Russian Army might be a prospect some would consider who wouldn’t consider joining Ukraine directly. I’m not going to pretend it would be a large number, but some would.
Next, a Free Russian Army operating out of Belgorod with most of the main Russian army tied down in Ukraine would have a very large incentive to spread as far and wide as possible before those southern Russian forces could be brought back. Outside of this scenario, Ukraine could plausibly take Belgorod to disrupt Russian supplies but would never extend further as the goal is the defense of Ukraine and not the conquest of Russia. Going further than Belgorod would expose Ukrainian troops for little gain. A Free Russian Army however would want to take over as much area as it plausibly could to have more opportunity to recruit other Russians to its cause. And if left unchecked, it would be an obvious threat to Putin’s power and so can’t be ignored.
A Free Russian Army in control of Belgorod would serve to cut the supply line Ukraine is currently trying to cut inside Ukraine. This would weaken all the Russian forces further south taking away possible supplies and forcing the already poor Russian logistic effort to change their supply routes inside of Russia. It wouldn’t cut off the Russian forces in Ukraine, but it would certainly wreck havoc on supply.
Finally, if the forces were large enough to expand (and were having enough success recruiting) this could become a threat big enough to force the withdrawal of Russian forces out of Ukraine. Russia would be highly incentivized to sign a peace treat to free up all their forces and not need to guard their border with Ukraine. It may even be worth it for them to give up Crimea without a fight. If they didn’t sue for peace, their forces would be stretched ever thinner. Any forces attempting to pull out of Ukraine without a peace treaty could be heavily mauled on the way out. The Russians for sure would have to remain on the defensive while they dealt with the Free Russian forces in Russia.
All that said, it is unlikely for the Free Russian Army to grow big enough quickly enough to withstand Russian forces loyal to Putin. It would be ethical to make it clear to the Free Russian forces being released this way that this task would most likely result in Free Russia’s defeat to the benefit of Ukraine (per the above). But these forces signed up to defend Ukraine, possibly at the cost of their lives. This mission, while insanely dangerous, would have the remote chance of bringing positive change to Russia. It would also have a real chance of plunging the whole country into misery and war. So it should be a volunteer mission only. And it should be made clear that if Russia signs a peace treaty with Ukraine, Ukraine may have to cut off aid. But that is what signing up to defend Ukraine means.
It is highly unlikely for any of this to occur which is why I feel okay writing about it. If Russia moves troops out of Ukraine to defend against this possibility put forth by some random writer on a US website I will feel I’ve done my job. But Ukraine should consider it. The possibility of getting Russia to fight itself instead of Ukrainians is an idea worth considering.