Back again for another edition of “As the Default Clock Ticks”. Here are some previous editions if you need and would like to get up to speed:
1. Debt Ceiling Options: Default, Cave, Discharge Petition or DARK BRANDON To The Rescue
2, THIS WEEK IN CONGRESS: The Clock Is Ticking Towards Default Day
3. THIS WEEK IN CONGRESS: As the Default Clock Ticks - House POS Bill Passes, Now What?
4. As the Default Clock Ticks - Cave, Discharge Petition, a Senate Bill or Dark Brandon to the Rescue
5. THIS WEEK IN CONGRESS: As The Default Clock Ticks - So What's Going On?
6. THIS WEEK IN CONGRESS — As the Default Clock Ticks - What's The Bottom Line?
Before I get started with today’s update, let me give a plug to Community Member Charles Jay for his great coverage of an important debt ceiling story that the MSM is paying no attention to. Here’s his latest post:
US judge schedules hearing for May 31 on union's emergency motion to suspend debt ceiling law
In a nutshell it is about a law suit filed by a Federal Employee’s union against Biden and Yellen arguing that the debt ceiling law id unconstitutional and that the 14th amendment requires the Executive Branch to continue to pay all US debts. They are requesting emergency relief in this matter. I won’t go into further details because I want to encourage you to read the above very informative post.
RELATED STORY: Government employees’ union files for emergency injunction to avert debt default in federal court.
Now on to my update.
First take a look at this clip from last night’s Lawrence O’Donnell’s MSNBC show:
Let me start by excerpting some of the latest quotes from Speaker McCarthy on the debt ceiling negotiations that are part of the above clip (about 7:15 minutes in):
McCarthy: “We are nowhere near a deal yet.”
McCarthy: “I told the President three things: No clean debt limit, No raising taxes, spend less money.”
McCarthy (speaking to House Republicans): “Remember where we were — they refused to negotiate. They made a mistake to negotiate, let’s stay strong together.”
Now I confess to not being a big fan of Lawrence O’Donnell (primarily because he always seems to remind his viewers that he once worked in the Senate), but this time he makes a couple of important points.
The first is how McCarthy has drastically lowered his hostage demands from the original ultimatum to Biden that he cave to the drastic cuts in the House passed POS Bill, to just spend less money. This is an amazing shift towards Biden in that he did not put a hard line amount on his “spend less” demand. Yet he begs the Free-dum Caucus crazies to stick with him. Lot’s a Luck Kevin!
The second is O’Donnell’s observation about what Biden is up to that I have said in my previous posts.
Biden is trying to kill two birds with one stone.
As Biden has said since day one of this looming crisis, he won’t negotiate over the debt ceiling, but he will negotiate over the 2023/2024 Budget. While the MSM has portrayed this as a matter of semantics, they fail to realize that Biden always says what he means and means what he says. The Biden administration’s clear goal in these negotiations, as O’Donnell spells out, is to both get McCarthy to raise the debt limit beyond the 2024 election and establish the 2023/2024 Budget agreement now , with a few harmless spending cuts if necessary, so that McCarthy cannot come back and take a government shutdown hostage in September to try to extract additional cuts. If Biden can pull this off, and that’s admittedly a BIG IF, it will be a huge win for him and the Democrats.
Now, I have no idea if McCarthy knows that’s what Biden is trying to do, or if he does whether he will ever agree to such a deal in which he would lose his ability to stage another economic hostage crisis. But I am confident that Biden won’t agree to a deal for cuts now that would allow McCarthy to come back for more deeper cuts in the Fall. My guess he and the Dems. will try to use other options to avoid default (e.g., get McCarthy to pass a short extension of the debt ceiling to continue negotiations, try to get at least 5 House Republicans to sign the Discharge Petition for the clean debt ceiling bill, or issue an Executive Order based on the 14th amendment). BTW: If McCarthy we’re to agree to a short term extension, he would basically be admitting that he doesn’t have the guts to shoot the hostage.
Let me end with what has my hair on fire most.
TIME!
It’s running out.
There are only 7 days left until June 1 Default Day, with 3 being a holiday weekend which Congress would routinely not be in session. Even if there is a budget deal today, a bill still has to be drafted, it has to go through the House Rules Committee, be voted on in the House where whether there are enough Republican and Democrat votes to pass it will depend on what the cuts are, it will have to go to the Senate where anyone Republican Senator could object and require the Senate to go through hours/days of a filibuster and Cloture process where 10 Republicans would have to vote to limit debate before the Senate could vote on and pass the Bill. For someone who follows Congress fairly closely, this seems impossible to me.
My guess is if there is a deal soon, they will have to quickly pass a short term debt ceiling extension to get us past Default Day while the Budget Bill gets drafted and passed. But there is no guarantee that a clean short term extension would pass this House.
Stay Tuned!