What military reasons are there for Russia to blow up the large Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dneiper River and flood southern Kherson along this river ? This short writeup contains my initial thoughts.
The most obvious reason is to stop a Ukrainian attack across the Dneiper River this week. Ukraine has been threatening such an attack for a while now.
Taking such a drastic action to prevent what most people viewed as a very risky attack, including myself, may mean that Russia is woefully unprepared to defend against such an attack.
Or, it may mean that Russia is so undermanned, that they need the troops guarding against a river attack elsewhere — i.e. to defend against Ukraine’s counteroffensive which they believe has started.
Conversely, Russia may want to wash away the Ukraine defenses along the right bank of the river, and then either mount an attack of their own to reclaim Western Kherson, or threaten such an attack, thereby forcing Ukraine to send troops to guard against this.
Russia also wants to wipe out the Ukrainian soldiers posted to the island rivers, and the ones posted on the left bank of the river that have been attacking Russian positions. I expect that they could accomplish this. Even if these troops can get into boats, they will have a very hard time crossing a wide, fast flowing river in flood stage.
Russia also gains an advantage by disrupting Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive.
We will likely have some answers by later this week.
Regardless of Russia’s military reasons, I am appalled by their destruction of such a major and important dam, and the damage it will cause.
I think that while Russia will gain a short term military advantage, blowing up the dam will have long term military disadvantages for them. But, this is a topic for a later writeup.