Two journalists with long experience in Russia were interviewed by the German publisher t-online. I translated a few of their statements for DKos readers. They are very pessimistic about Russian society and any prospect of changes from the grassroots.
The full article is here:
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/krisen/id_100240570/ukraine-krieg-warum-wird-putins-herrschaft-nicht-erschuettert-.html
Russian society has been deformed by dictatorship and brainwashing for more than a hundred years. Victim myths are systematically instilled and hatred of the West is fueled; any critical questioning of this version of history is punished.
If you hinder the interests of the authorities, you will face severe consequences. That's why most people prefer to stay out of it. The Russians are afraid.
There is no individual sense of responsibility for collective action in Russia.
Veterans (in the Russian army) have always tortured younger people to a degree that is unimaginable here, and this is never punished. This horrible experience shapes the entire Russian society.
Nobody in the free West can expect people in Russia to take their protest to the streets. The penalties are horrendous and arbitrary. You can be arrested just for holding up a blank piece of paper.
People in Russia have no idea how WW-II really happened. They know that Germany committed terrible crimes after the attack on the Soviet Union in 1941. But they don't know that the Red Army invaded Poland in 1939 to divide the country according to the Hitler-Stalin Pact. People have a selective view of history instilled in them from an early age. That's why many now believe the lie that there are "Nazis" in Kiev who are being controlled remotely by the West.
There will be no reforms as long as Russia does not experience a clear defeat in Ukraine, and even this chance is low.
The Russian people make no connection between their criminal and brutal government and their own passive and slavish mentality. [this is my summary of several sentences - not a translation]
The risk (of nuclear escalation) seems very low. It would also be the end of Russia. It is clear that this regime is cowardly. It only attacks weaker states. People in the Kremlin know that they are hopelessly inferior to NATO.