Wisconsin volunteers had a very full year last year. Most of the people who canvassed with Hope Springs last year had spent the early Spring knocking on doors for the Wisconsin Dems before the April elections (successfully electing Janet Protasiewicz to the state Supreme Court) before knocking on 372,988 doors with Hope Springs in the late Spring, Summer and early Fall. We have now knocked on 38.4% of all doors in Wisconsin.
The Wisconsin volunteers i talked to in December were very confident about the re-election of Tammy Baldwin. i agree, for perhaps different reasons. Baldwin has always put together a strong organization, she reaches out to all parts of Wisconsin and shows up in places where traditional Democrats have stopped going. One of our Wisconsin organizers (who i caught up with at the Obama alumni reunion in November) sends me a text every time someone announces they won’t run against Baldwin (“another one bites the dust”). So far, no high-profile Republican has announced they are running.
But that won’t change Baldwin’s campaign strategy. As she has said, she won’t “write off anybody. Don’t write off any area. You really do have to show up to listen, but also follow up and be a champion for the pocketbook-issues that everybody struggles with.” Our Wisconsin volunteers expect her organization and efforts to help not just Biden but a slew of Democrats, especially those expected to run for state legislature under new district lines.
And Baldwin definitely has run some of the best senate campaigns waged in more Rural states. Everyone expects her to do so again this year.
But she is also a beneficiary of one of the best state Democratic organizations in the country. WisDems has really rebuilt since the Walker recall election (perhaps renewal is a better term here than rebuilt) and serves as a model for Swing State Democratic party orgs. After Hope Springs stopped canvassing this September, WisDems held a statewide canvass after the November election, focused on local priorities and targets. That’s no mean feat.
“Heading into 2024, the Dairy State remains somewhat unpredictable” in the presidential race. In 2020, Biden defeated Trump by 20,682 votes in Wisconsin, a margin of ~0.7%. “Biden visited Wisconsin multiple times in 2023 and that will continue in 2024, while Trump barnstormed the state in his two prior races, and the same should be expected through the fall.” The “Marquette poll finds Biden has slight edge over Trump,” and the Times/Siena Poll agreed. Other polls of Likely Voters in Wisconsin are equally encouraging. But Wisconsin was also a state where voters have told us that they don’t hear (or know) much about Biden’s accomplishments — and they want to hear more.
One of the things that seemed to excite the volunteers i had met with in December was that they had registered 680 New Voters since we started knocking on doors there. In total, our efforts there have resulted in 3,127 voters correctly registered at their current address. It’s the little things, but essential in our super-compliance strategy of protecting the vote.
Everywhere i went, volunteers (and organizers) wanted to talk about the Ohio elections. Even though Wisconsin won’t replicate the Kansas and Ohio referendums, Reproductive Freedom is still an issue in the state:
Planned Parenthood resumed abortion services at three locations in 2023, the lawsuit over Wisconsin's abortion laws isn't over quite yet.
Sheboygan County District Attorney Joel Urmanski is appealing a Dane County judge's ruling that the state's 1849 law applies to feticide, not abortions. The case could ultimately reach the state Supreme Court.
“We can never relax in Wisconsin,” one volunteer (in the WOW counties!) noted. That seems about right.
While i don’t agree with the initial premise here:
the playbook for Democrats has largely relied on the issue of abortion rights. The strategy has mostly been successful among Wisconsinites who reelected Gov. Tony Evers last year and supported Justice Janet Protasiewicz by double digits to flip the ideological balance of the state Supreme Court this past spring. Though the issue remains tied up in the legal system in Wisconsin, Chergosky believes talk of a national abortion ban will likely reignite the topic on the campaign trail.
“Abortion motivates the base of the party, and having a motivated base is extremely important in the broader context of the general election come November 2024. I also think abortion has the potential to swing some of those undecided voters, so this goes back to the role that abortion played in the 2022 Midterm elections.”
The advantage that Democrats have, in Wisconsin and elsewhere, is that the issue of abortion is a consequential contrast to Trump and the MAGA Republicans. It makes women more determined to vote, and, even if they have Republican leanings, to take Democratic candidates more seriously. The voters we have been talking to, Democrats and independents, don’t want to be around crazy, and Trump and his minions are the craziest out there. The more that Democrats talk about individual freedoms and Constitutional Rights, the more likely we will win in 2024.
But the volunteers and organizers i talked to in Wisconsin were hopeful of the opportunities presented by 2023 and wanted to know how we could take advantage of those opportunities:
One of the first, sweeping changes that will come to Wisconsin in spring is new legislative maps, which will have to be in place by March 15, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission.
The new maps could alter the makeup of the Legislature, possibly giving Democrats more power. It might also change who your representative or senator is: Half of the state Senate and the full state Assembly will run in new districts.
And keep an eye out for possible appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court, after Assembly Speaker Robin Vos indicated Republicans would take the ruling to the nation's highest court.
We won’t know the answer until we see the maps (or whether Republicans can get a stay from the Supreme Court) but “New maps are likely to remove some of the Republican advantage conferred by gerrymandering, with the state Supreme Court’s ruling stating that partisan fairness will be a factor when it comes to redrawing districts. Democrats could be fielding candidates in places across the state that haven’t seen a competitive race in nearly two decades.”
Our work in Wisconsin, then, just continues to expand. One of the things that the Baldwin campaign requested was to be the “lead” on Constituent Service Requests we collect this year. We’ve collected more than 4,000 CSRs in the state and voters there have had much higher participation in making requests than almost any other state. Wisconsinites want their government to work for them, and this is just another datapoint where we can heighten awareness that Democrats Deliver!
But we need your help. Like everyone else, we are asking for financial support for these vital efforts. If you are like me, you are inundated with requests. We don’t have any cute pets, or special treats, to offer up to encourage your support. Nor will we try to guilt you by telling you the threat is real, ongoing and getting more sophisticated. We are all getting tired of the incessant fund-raising.
But if you are able to contribute to our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please do. We need your help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
You can follow that link for our mailing address, as well (for those who would rather send us a check). Thank you for your support! This work depends on you!