One of the biggest disconnects between political reality and fantasy today is the near-certainty that President Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be the nominees of their respective parties and how many voters still view that as preposterous.
That is particularly true of Republicans, with 27% believing someone else besides Biden will be the Democratic nominee, according to the latest Daily Kos/Civiqs poll. But even among Republicans, frequent Fox viewers and the 65-plus crowd really stand out, with 33% of Fox fans and 45% (!) of 65-plus Republicans saying someone other than Biden will be the Democratic nominee.
To be fair, 15% of Democrats think Nikki Haley or someone other than Trump will be the nominee, but at least Republicans are fielding a semblance of a primary.
All in all, 30% of the electorate are either uncertain or believe someone besides Biden will be the Democratic nominee, including nearly 4 in 10 independents, while 22% of the electorate says the same of Trump, including roughly a quarter of independents.
Members of Biden's and Trump's own parties are quite clear-eyed about the future, with 91% of Democrats saying Biden will be the nominee and 93% of Republicans saying Trump will be the nominee.
But once you get outside of the partisan tribes, there's a lot of confusion and disbelief among voters.
That's exactly why today's head-to-head polls are so dodgy and no one should put much, if any, stock in them. Outside of Democratic and Republican partisans, a solid swath of swing voters who will decide the election are still living in denial about the Biden-Trump rematch. The universe of gettable voters are simply not in the head space to properly assess their options and the choices they will be forced to make accordingly. Not to mention the fact that general election campaigning has barely begun.
In the survey's head to head, Biden and Trump are tied at 44% each, with Biden winning 88% of Democrats and Trump winning 90% of Republicans.
- Biden: 44%
- Trump: 44%
- Someone else: 9%
- Unsure: 2%
So the large swath of independent voters who remain in disbelief about the rematch are also the most likely group of voters to decide the outcome. Right now, Trump is winning 46% of independents to Biden's 35%, while 17% choose "someone else" in the poll.
Once swing voters are convinced that only either Biden or Trump will end up in the Oval Office, that's when the head to heads will get more realistic. For the moment, swing voters still don't have a full appreciation of the gravity of their votes.
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