After Democrats won George Santos’ former seat on Long Island, Trump was quick to denounce the Republican candidate to distance himself from the loser. But he also laid out his campaign strategy which will make him a loser in November.
“Former President Donald Trump railed against GOP candidate Mazi Pilip after she lost a special election Tuesday in New York for George Santos’ former House seat, blaming her loss on not sufficiently embracing Trump and his MAGA supporters …,” Forbes wrote.
With this approach, Trump has put himself in a Catch-22. If suburban Republican candidates are not full-on MAGA, then Trump won’t endorse them and his supporters will stay home. If the suburban candidates are sufficiently loyal to Trump, they will lose because college-educated suburban voters, whether Republican or Independents, have moved on from extreme Trumpism.
Democrats will do well in these districts, especially when you consider that Republican House leadership has painted a huge target on the backs of GOP members with the “Do Nothing House” label.
Giving up on the 69% of the population that lives in suburban areas is huge. It’s hard to make up for that, even with good turnout from the 19% of the country that is rural.
A critical question is whether Republicans can lose the House districts bigtime and still win the states to capture electoral votes. Campaigns don’t generally work that way. A party is either able to put together an effective turnout effort across the state, or it is not. As mentioned, more than two-thirds of the voters are in the suburbs, so Trump’s ‘dis’ to suburban Republicans will be fatal.
Also hurting the Republican campaign will be lack of money. Trump needs money, and beyond that, he really likes money. He has left little on the table at the Republican National Committee or state GOP organizations. And the deep-pocketed Republican donors are not lining up to throw good money after bad.
“But the Michigan GOP is not the only state party with a treasury running dry,” according to an article in “Governing.” “Republican parties in the key states of Arizona and Georgia have also run short of cash. This spring, the Colorado Republican Party was unable to pay its own staff, while this summer the Minnesota Republican Party reported it had just $54 in cash on hand, a sum dwarfed by more than $300,000 in debts.”
If it is a question of $100,000 for a new lawyer who might keep Trump out of jail for a few more weeks, or $10,000 for flyers to try to win in Arizona, which is Trump going to choose?
Admittedly, I am breaking The Rule here. The powers that be, including the media and Democratic leadership, have decreed that Democrats can never be optimistic. The media because it might be bad for ratings. Democratic leadership because they suspect we might become lazy if things look good.
But I think that if we point out that the election is there to be won, Democrats will do the work to produce the overwhelming victory that the country needs.