After today’s South Carolina primary, and seeing headlines on sites such as Politico with “Trump scores easy knockout...” and even here with “Nikki Haley suffers humiliating defeat...”, I’m left wondering if they’re looking at the same results I am.
As of this writing, 87% of the vote is in and Trump is leading Haley 60%-39.3%. While that seems like what would be a big victory in most contexts, it’s exactly the context that is the key here.
Trump will be the GOP nominee. That’s been clear for weeks, if not months, to everyone, including the Republicans. Yet even though Trump as the nominee is practically a fait accompli, nearly 40% of the GOP electorate in South Carolina still bothered to show up to cast a vote for someone else.
Let me emphasize that — in what everyone knew was practically a meaningless contest, nearly 40% STILL showed up to vote against Trump.
Because of that, I have to agree more with Josh Marshall at TPM here, this is actually a WEAK showing for Trump. If he’s in a position where 40% of the party is still voting against him at this point, it’s difficult to imagine that those 40% will be passionate to vote FOR him in November.
In my opinion, that’s what to look for in the subsequent contests — as the presumptive nominee, is Trump consolidating the vote or is there still a sizable block showing up to vote against him? And will he be able to get that block back in November?
Edit: Thanks for the rec list! As many are pointing out, that 40% are GOP voting against him isn’t 100% accurate as SC is an open primary, which is valid. However, I believe the point still stands when taking into account the fact that Trump also only got about 60% in NH and Iowa as well. He’s essentially the incumbent but isn’t dominating like incumbents usually do in primaries. That’s the main point and potentially significant IMO.