Rep. Marcy Kaptur is one lucky lady. She was given a district that Trump won thanks to 2020 redistricting. This put her in peril, the sort of electoral danger that she had yet to face in her nearly 40 years of running for office.
Previously, Ohio’s 9th District was so safely Democrat that even though President Joe Biden lost the state in 2020, he carried the district – which stretched along the coast of Lake Erie from Cleveland to Toledo – by more than 15 points. Kaptur herself easily won reelection that year.
But redistricting shifted the lines, encompassing counties in the northwest part of the state, stretching to the Indiana border - creating a much more conservative 9th district that Donald Trump would have won– and making Kaptur’s 19th run for office much more competitive. Not since redistricting forced her into a primary against fellow incumbent Dennis Kucinich in 2012 has Kaptur faced such odds.
Yet thanks to the GOP primary choosing an unelectable nutcase, Kaptur had it very easy in 2022. J.R. Majewski was the dream opponent for Kaptur, an opposition gold mine so to speak.
Majewski, the 2022 GOP nominee for northwest Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, lost to Kaptur by double-digits after news reports indicated that he lied about serving in combat in Afghanistan. His candidacy was a blow to House Republicans, who previously saw the district as one of their best pickup opportunities in 2022. To their chagrin, Majewski launched a comeback bid in 2023 only to drop out weeks later, citing his mother’s health. He later got back in the race.
Majewski came under fire again last month when he appeared on a podcast and called Special Olympics athletes “retarded.” He then confirmed to POLITICO on Tuesday that he was considering dropping out of the race once again and that he believed those comments could hurt him in a general election.
However, Majewski is NOT the nominee in 2024, State Rep. Derek Merrin is instead. That alone could spell trouble for Kaptur. The question is, will 2024 be a tougher race for her?
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Marcy Kaptur for Ohio-9
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS RACE IS A TOSSUP, with an R+3 PVI
The Toledo area has given solid if unspectacular numbers of votes for Democratic candidates for 40 years running. Marcy Kaptur dislodged a GOP incumbent 40 years ago to first come to Congress, and has not been seriously challenged since. The lean of the Toledo area has kept her safe the entire time she has been in office.
Things started to change after 2010 redistricting, when the Ohio GOP pitted Kaptur against Rep. Dennis Kucinich in a district that sprawled from Toledo to the western parts of Cleveland. Population losses allowed Republicans to combine the two Democratic members of Congress into a super-safe Democratic vote sink. Kucinich bailed, and Kaptur remained in Congress and unchallenged throughout the decade.
Ironically enough, what may lead to her demise is the redistricting legislation that gave criteria for how districts could be drawn. The hideous gerrymander that protected Kaptur last decade was no longer permissible, and there is not enough population near Toledo to give her a safe seat anymore. The sham redistricting commission (led by partisan elected Republicans) gave her a district Trump won twice, including a 50.6% to 47.7% win in 2020. Even with such a Republican lean, Kaptur faced an awful candidate, J.R. Majewski in 2022 and cruised to an easy 56.6% to 43.4% victory. 2024 will most likely be much more competitive.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 9th district.
- Toledo metro area: This is the home base of Rep. Kaptur, and she must find every single vote possible to offset the areas of the district that are hostile to Democratic candidates. She has built up 40 years of good will in the area, and she will need it.
- Sandusky and Fremont: These small cities still vote for Democratic candidates, even as the areas surrounding them are now hostile to the party and enamored of Trump. Kaptur needs to find every possible vote in these small cities to eke out a narrow win.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Northwest Ohio: Fulton, Williams, and Defiance Counties average around 70% of the vote for GOP candidates, and they have enough votes to tip the scale against Kaptur. Other than the city of Defiance, which is light red, the rest of this area is completely hopeless for our side.
- Lake Erie Shoreline: Except for the aforementioned small cities, the rest of the Rust Belt found along the Lake Erie shoreline has turned against us. Kaptur needs to find some residual votes open to her to staunch the bleeding elsewhere. If this area rejects her, she is doomed.
Who is Rep. Marcy Kaptur?
Rep. Marcy Kaptur has been affiliated with the Democratic Party ever since she started volunteering at the age of 13. With her mother being an auto union organizer and her father owning a small grocery store, Kaptur was always busy in her youth. She was the first person in her family to go to college, heading to the University of Wisconsin for undergrad, the University of Michigan for an urban planning Master’s degree, and MIT for a Ph.D. in urban planning. She served as a domestic policy advisor to Jimmy Carter before getting elected to Congress in 1982.
After 41 years of legislating, what is left for Rep. Marcy Kaptur to do? Well…
"I have a whole laundry list of unfinished business. I want to create the best training for mechanics and technicians in this nation. ... Workforce development is an area that we need so much more attention to ... We have to refinance Social Security for the next generation," Kaptur explained. "These are weighty problems. These are the big ones, power, water, industry, agriculture, and making sure that it's modern, and that our people have the educational capacity to meet the future."
Much of this information comes from her issues page.
- Fair Trade Fighter. Kaptur has consistently fought against free trade deals, which she claims has led to the hollowing out of American manufacturing in the Rust Belt. She led the charge amongst Democrats against NAFTA, and also was against other free trade deals.
- War in Ukraine. Kaptur is the leader of the Ukrainian Caucus. She has consistently called out Russian meddling in the affairs of Ukraine, even before the Russian invasion. Kaptur has also advocated for increased funding for the war, and also for the weapons needed such as F-16s.
- Environmental Protector. She has led efforts to clean up toxic industrial sites and brownfields across the district and across America. Lake Erie often has a toxic algal bloom, and she is a strong proponent of measures to reduce this detrimental toxic bloom.
- Wall Street Accountability. Kaptur is definitely in the Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren wing of the party when it comes to holding Wall Street accountable. She voted against the Wall Street bailout from the left during the Great Recession. She constantly looks to re-institute the Glass-Steagall Act to take better control of the banks.
- Climate Crisis. Kaptur sees opportunity in manufacturing when it comes to the climate crisis. She believes that solar panels, wind turbines, and heat pumps are the energy wave of the future. She also supports biofuels made from soybeans and corn.
- Housing Crisis. Kaptur is big on modernizing homes, as evidenced by introducing the Restoring Communities Left Behind Act to push for renovating older housing. She is also pushing for better weatherization of homes to save energy and help with the climate crisis. She also supports building new housing stock where it is feasible to do so.
- Defending Democracy. While not mentioning 1/6, she does mention the corrosive influence that Citizens United has had on our politics. She would pass a law to repeal this Supreme Court decision and get corporate and billionaire money out of our political system.
Who is Derek Merrin?
Derek Merrin is a member of the Ohio House of Representatives who represents the 42nd district. This district covers western Lucas County, southern Toledo, and some suburbs of that city. He has lived in the Toledo area since his teenage years and even went to school at the local universities for his master’s degree in public administration. He was elected to his town’s city council at age 19, and became the mayor of it two years later. He is term-limited in the state house, meaning this is his chance for a huge promotion.
Merrin does not have an issues page on his website, and his about page lauds only his successes in the state legislature. I’m relying on the DCCC opposition research (not exactly unbiased) and other sources for this section.
- Failed Speaker Bid in Ohio. Merrin was widely seen as the next Speaker for the Ohio House of Representatives. However, quite a few Republicans felt that he was too conservative for the role in spite of being elected leader of the GOP Caucus. Renegade Republicans and all of the Democrats in the minority banded together to elect a different, more moderate Speaker.
- Powering Corruption. One of Merrin’s main benefactors was corrupt Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder. He did not balk at bailing out the energy company responsible for the scandal to the tune of $1.3 billion. When Householder was arrested, Merrin did not vote to expel him from the state legislature.
- Forced Birth Maniac. Merrin shepherded through Ohio’s strict six week abortion ban through the state House after Dobbs. But that isn’t extreme enough for him, as he has co-sponsored legislation banning abortion ‘from the moment of conception’ with NO exceptions. To further his forced birth credentials, he pushed for criminalization of both doctors and women who perform/have an abortion with life in prison.
- Immigration Hardliner. Merrin calls immigration at the southern border the “#1 issue” of his campaign. He supports sending the military to fortify the border to stop immigration. He also wants to build Trump’s border wall. Finally, he wants to remove any incentive to immigrate illegally to this nation by cutting off all benefits and financial incentives.
- Anti-Worker. Merrin supports so-called ‘right to work’ legislation that cripples unions. Even though Ohio has rejected this type of legislation through a ballot measure, Merrin was going to push for it as state House Speaker anyways. He also is byzantine on sick leave policy, taking away employees’ sick days as mayor and when in the state legislature.
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Debt and Deficit Peacock. Merrin is yet another politician in favor of a balanced budget amendment, which would require either sharp increases in taxes or the radical shutdown of government services. He is against all tax increases, as evidenced by signing the so-called “Taxpayer Protection Pledge”.
- Environmental Disaster. Lake Erie is plagued by algal blooms every summer. One of the main culprits is sediment dumping from the Toledo Harbor. Merrin was one of only 10 votes against bipartisan legislation curbing the practice. No doubt he would be terrible on other environmental issues as well.
- Slumlord Supporter. Merrin pushed for legislation that would end mandatory lead pipe testing for rental properties. He also pushed for legislation that would make it easier for landlords to evict their tenants around the holidays. Merrin has been in the pocket of landlords since running for the state house in 2016.
How Can You Help?
Toledo may be far away from your keyboard, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t ways you can help out. You can donate to Rep. Marcy Kaptur, you could choose to volunteer for her campaign if you live nearby, or you could boost her social media outreach. Helping out Kaptur in her tough race also helps out Sen. Sherrod Brown in his tough race.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur raised a grand total of $418k during the Q4 reporting period of 2023. That simply isn’t good enough for what will be one of the most competitive races in the nation. Hopefully, her fundraising kicks into gear soon. She thankfully has a cushion of $1.33M saved up from previous campaigns, which gives her a head start. Derek Merrin entered the race very late, and did not file during the Q4 reporting period. No doubt that he will not want for money as the GOP sees this as a prime opportunity to flip a seat.
I could not find a link to volunteer for her campaign on her website. This is an example of her rustiness in not facing a serious race in over 40 years. Your best bet if you are local is to show up at the local Democratic Party headquarters and see what help they need. You probably should mention that you want to help out Kaptur, or you could be sent elsewhere in the state or even to Michigan. Hopefully this oversight is corrected soon!
Rep. Marcy Kaptur also needs help with social media promotion, especially with her campaign accounts. She isn't the most visible member of the House of Representatives, so any exposure will definitely help her out. If you cannot donate or volunteer, this is an easy way to help out a campaign!
Kaptur has 29.7k followers on her official Twitter account, which is much higher than what I expected. It seems like her official accounts are how she communicates with her audience. Future Speaker Jeffries and Kaptur attended a roundtable to discuss how Democrats are making health care better in northwestern Ohio.
Furthermore, Kaptur has a large following on her official Facebook account as well — 29k followers there too! The comments for her are mostly positive ones too, which is rare for any politician. Here, she is calling for eliminating the cap on incomes taxed by Social Security. It could help make the program solvent!
Kaptur also has some campaign accounts, but they haven’t been used in a long time (well, until very recently). Her Facebook account has lain dormant since late 2022 despite having 13k followers on it. Her Twitter account started posting again after the March 19th primary, but it only has 4.7k followers. Both lack content that is worth posting here, so I’ll let you check them out at your leisure.
Help spread the word today by following Rep. Marcy Kaptur and boosting her accomplishments and her campaign in the critical realm of social media.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur has had an amazing career as the longest-serving woman in Congress. That streak is now in serious jeopardy, as the opposition is much better this time around. Daily Kos rates her as the 39th most vulnerable Democratic seat, but that is 100% an artifact of her romping over the worst nominee the GOP put up in 2022. I’d rate her in the Top 5 Democratic incumbents most likely to lose, mainly because she hasn’t had a competitive race in over 40 years of politics.
Derek Merrin is already a more dangerous opponent for Kaptur simply because he isn’t J.R. Majewski. He has the easier task of running even with Trump to win. It is likely that even a damaged Trump will win this district once again in 2024. Merrin is not without vulnerabilities himself, especially on abortion and corruption. It’s just that those may not be disqualifying for him in a conservative district.
It’s going to be much tougher for Rep. Marcy Kaptur to win in 2024. The real question is whether or not she is ready for what will come.
Marcy Kaptur for Ohio-9
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