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And, because I get grief about not pimping my other series, here are the stories in The Basics Series...
New Republican Sales Pitch
DLC Democrats Sales Pitch
City on a Hill
The Napoleonic Strategies of the GOP
The Danger Called Howard Dean
JUMP!
There are seven districts in Louisiana, five of which are held by Republicans and two are held by Democrats. It's hard to tell what the demographic breakdown of the state will be this time around, especially the five southern districts. While this would normally favor the reddies as the poorer New Orleanians are scattered across the country, it's hard to say, as three of the districts are red. Louisiana is going to be anyone's guess this year, and the best I can do is treat it as a state in it's normal condition, which, of course, it's not. Also, Louisiana seems to be an odd bird in that they hold primaries and elections on the same day. I think that what happens is that if no candidate gets 50%+1 vote, there is a run-off some time in December, which, of course, makies things complicated for me, but, should be fun.
LA-1 - Easternmost part of the state, including Metarie. I have no idea why this district is so red, but, the last Democrat to run here got only 7% of the vote, and Kerry got 29%. The incumbent is Bobby Jindal, who holds a massive cash advantage over his three opponents, Democrats Stacey Tallitsch, a computer desktop technician who lost all his possessions in Hurrican Katrina, and David Gereighty an engineer, plus Libertarian Peter Beary. Neither Democrat has much of a chance here.
LA-1: Safe Red
LA-2 - New Orleans, or what used to be New Orleans. Our incumbent William Jefferson. Jefferson has not been indicted on any charges, but other people are saying he's not as strong as he should be. Jefferson will be facing 5, count them, 5!, Democratic challengers in addition to the reddie, Joe Lavigne, whose bio seems to be filled with family, faith, and love of New Orleans. You know, it's too bad for them that they couldn't snag a good candidate here, because they could have capitalized on just so much. But they didn't, and their loss is our retention.
LA-2: Blue, but not really sure who will win the seat. Could get wild!
LA-3 - The South Central portion of the state. Our incumbent, Charlie Melacon, won this one by the hair of his teeth last time carrying just over 50% of the vote. Bush beat Kerry here 58/41. Melancon is facing a spirited challenge by the Republican Craig Romero, a less spirited challenge from Olangee Breech and a less spirited challenge still by the Libertarian James Lee Blake. As of now, and according to Romero's internal poll, Melancon is below the magic 50% number. The same poll gives Melancon a 24 point lead over Romero, the presumptive co-run-off-candidate. On Melancon's website is the quote, "If Romero can't get over 24% of the vote in his own grossly inaccurate poll, then his campaign is in serious trouble," which is not only accurate but kinda funny.
LA-3: Blue. The only question is when.
LA-4 - The Northwestern portion of the state including Shreveport. The red incumbent, Jim McCrery, ran unopposed last time, but Bush beat Kerry 59/40. Our challengers are Dr. Artis Cash, a local minister, and Patti Cox, and environmental activist and founder of REBUILD GREEN. The Democrats, between them, have a little over $250, versus McCrery's 1.4m. Move along, move along.
LA-4: Safe Red.
LA-5 - The Northeastern portion of the state including Monroe. This is a very rural district, and the red incumbent, Rodney Alexander, won 59% of the vote last time, or three less than W. Our gal is Gloria Hearn, a Christian, God-fearing 72 year old woman who is running because no one else would. Both of her parents served in elected positions as well as one of her brothers. Today, she serves as part-time Education Director at Beulah Baptist Church, where her husband serves as pastor. She has no chance whatsoever, but kudos to her for running.
LA-5: Safe Red.
LA-6 - The East Central portion of the state including Baton Rouge. The red incumbent, Richard Baker, won this one with 72% of the vote, substantially higher than Ws 59%. This time, he has no Democratic opponent and the Libertarian hasn't raised any money, so...
LA-6: Safe Red.
LA-7 - Southwestern corner of the state including Lafayette and Lake Charles. The red incumbent Boustany, won this one with 55% of the vote. Our guy is Mike Stagg, a civic activist, a technology consultant, and former journalist who has 1% of the COH of the incumbent. He's run for State Senate and for governor (garnering 1,667 votes out of 1.4m). Still, it's enough that CQ has this as dark pink rather than red.
LA-7: I don't see it happening. Red.