I attempted to analyze the generic Congressional Ballot poll from Pew and what it means.
I detailed my methods and covered the Midwest here.
I focused on the Northeast today: Maryland, Delaware, West Virgnia(wasn't sure if this belonged here), Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine.
As I said yesterday: I assume the distrct-by-district swings will be the same. This is a perhaps flawed assumption, but it is reliable enough to give us a baseline. If you feel this assumption is flawed to the point that my diary is pointless, feel free NOT to read on.
Again, of course, my methods aren't perfect. The swing will not be the same in each district, the candidates will be different, GOTV ops, and fundraising, as well as the political climate and other district-specific conditions. But it's a start. I haven't figured out to quantatively include those yet.
Results on the flip.
In the Northeast in 2004, we beat the Republicans
12,059,084 to
9,706,982, a margin of 2,352,152, or 11.8%.
The Pew Poll has us up here 58-28. With undecideds split even, that's an astonishing 65-35, a swing of 9.6% to our side from '04.
Results from MA-01, MA-02, MA-08, MA-09, NY-06, PA-12 and PA-14 are not included in the above results, since John Olver, Richard Neal, Mike Capuano, Stephen Lynch, Greg Meeks, John Murtha, and Mike F. Doyle did not have any opponents in '04.
The formula is also revised like this from yesterday:
An open seat in 2006 means that the margin will be 15% of what it was in 2004, as opposed to a flat 5% decrease.
The Results:
Pickups, 3:
PA-06, Jim Gerlach, 7.64%
CT-04, "Moderate" Chris Shays, 4.92%
CT-02, Rob Simmons, 1.23%
Close Seats, 8:
NY-26, Tom Reynolds (The NRCC Chair), -1.65%
NY-29, Randy Kuhl, -6.18%
NJ-07, Mike Ferguson, -6.33%
WV-02, Shelley Moore Capito, -6.79%
PA-08, Mike Fitzpatrick, -7.54%
NJ-05, Scott Garrett, -7.75%
NY-13, Vito Fossella, -8.39%
PA-07, Curt Weldon, -9.01%
Barely Missing the Cut, 3:
PA-15, Charlie Dent, -10.08%
PA-03, Phil English, -10.62%
NH-02, Charlie Bass, -11.91%
Defense, 5
NY-11, Major Owens, 5.43% (I'm really not actually worried about this Brooklyn district.)
MD-03, Ben Cardin, 5.99% (Least Democratic of the 6 Maryland D Seats)
VT-01, Bernie Sanders, 8.54% (Not worried either)
NJ-13, Bob Menendez, 9.64% (See above)
NY-27, Brian Higgins, 15.93% (Only because he's a freshman)
The map, for your viewing pleasure:
Dark Blue = Safe Democrat
Medium Blue = Defense
Light Blue = Pickup
Light Red = Close Seat
Medium Red = Misses the Cut
Dark Red = Safe Republican
Addendum to yesterday's entry:
With the revised formulas, yesterdays pickup's are reduced to 2:
Mark Kennedy, MN-06
and
Mike Sodrel, IN-09
IL-06(Henry Hyde) and IA-01(Jim Leach) are added to the "close" category, as is WI-08(Mark Green retiring; running for Governor).
Defense Seats are:
OH-06, Ted Strickland, 5.36%
OH-13, Sherrod Brown, 6.49% (Not worried about this one)
IL-08, Melissa Bean, 11.77% (Pissed people off with CAFTA, too)
SD-AL, Stephanie Herseth, 15.88% (John Thune, the Daschle-killer is gone, so I think she's safe)
IA-03, Len Boswell, 18.69%
IN-07, Julia Carson, 19.26%
Missing the Cut:
NE-03, Tom Osborne, -10.51% (Not happening. Don't even dream...it's a flaw in the formula.)
MI-09, Joe Knollenberg, -10.93%
OH-01, Steve Chabot, -11.37%
Another map:
(Note: Ugh, Pixelation)
Next: The West. Some charts and individual district info after the West and the South.