As Oil Goes Down, So Do Our Chances

Professor Pollkatz has a very enlightening graph demonstating the relationship between Bush's approval rating (an average of recent polls) and the price of gasoline. Basically, when the price of gasoline goes up, Bush's approval falls, and what is important right now, when the price of gasoline goes down, Bush's approval goes up.

The price of gasoline at the pump has gone down 15 cents in the past couple of weeks; it is now at $2.87 (these are national averages, YMMV). Gasoline futures are also dropping significantly, so the pump price will continue to decline. In addition, gasoline prices have a cyclic decline in the Fall.

Right now Pollkatz's poll of polls has Bush's approval rating at 37.3. I think that based on gasoline prices we can expect Bush's approval rating to hit 40 within a couple of weeks and stay above that level. This is bad news for our chances November. If this election is seen as a referendum on Bush, then if Bush's approval keeps on going up, we will be fighting an uphill battle to take back either house in November.

•  Good news for those

  struggling to make ends meet. Bad news for those who see politics above all else and not real working people struggling. If your ideas are so weak that a slight drop in oil prices causes you to lose, you do not deserve to win.

  by disinterestedobserver on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:31:38 AM PDT

  •  I disagree with your statement

    If your ideas are so weak that a slight drop in oil prices causes you to lose, you do not deserve to win.

    The strongest, best, most progressive ideas may just not be able to compete with self-interest. The weak idea is that Bush deserves any credit for the decrease in gasoline prices but it a connection that people make. Our problem is how to sever that connection. I'm not saying that it is bad that oil prices are going down, I'm saying that it is bad that oil prices going down makes Bush more popular.

    by yellowdog on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:39:37 AM PDT

  •  Excellent Point

    This gas price arguement reinforces the Republican talking point that Democrats want to see things go badly because it will helps us in November.

    Anything positive that occurs now should we embraced as a victory because of Democrats in congress.

    Spin!!!

    by tonydimarzio on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:40:45 AM PDT

  •  By all means...

    Shoot the messanger and ignore the correlation data.

    by RichM on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:44:33 AM PDT

  •  It's not so much a function

    of ideas as it is a scam by yhe oil companies. They know how it works. Last time congress talked about investigating them prices dropped. When congress stopped talking about it they went up again.

    Sure, this is good news for the public in the short term but this is only a short term thing. If the GOP maintains their majorities gas prices will skyrocket again.

    by Mike S on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:48:00 AM PDT

  •  disinterestedobserver

    your career at daily kos is improving very interesting.  

    God speed.

    by DCDemocrat on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 03:50:43 PM PDT

•  I believe that there may be something

  else that is a common causal variable for those things.  Kind of like crime and ice cream sales rising in June, July, and August.

  It is MOST likely to be consumer confidence, which actually does track quite well with the price of gas.

  The issue is to try to separate them, perhaps with a discussion of home prices, etc.

  by DrWolfy on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:37:34 AM PDT

•  this was a given

  You had to figure they would do this. In the World According to Rove, everything is done for political reasons. Gas prices will continue to fall until election day. Our strategists, I hope, expected this, and are prepared to deal with it. I'd like to see them call Rove and Co. on it: call bullshit on all the excuses the Rovians routinely run out--"refinery maintenance," "seasonal switchovers," geopolitical instability"--and just accuse them of manipulating the price for political reasons. Which is, after all, the truth.

  by blueness on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:39:22 AM PDT

  •  Summer driving, road trips are over

    that's why the $$ is going down.

    by bejammin075 on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:45:27 AM PDT

  •  Yes,

    I've diaried this before (oil diary ). I don't think our stategists have thought this through. The diary cited above was in reaction to Pelosi calling for Dems to talk about oil prices.

    by yellowdog on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:46:56 AM PDT

•  Gee. I wonder if there

  is some sort of industry executive decision to lower the prices and help the GOP?

  When the pipeline went down in Alaska the price should have gone up. They did say it was the line that feeds the west coast, after all. Instead they have gone steadily down ever since.

  You would think the press would see the corolation here.

  by Mike S on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:39:41 AM PDT

  •  tin hat

    paranoia

    ANS shutdown was not that large in the end and there
    is plenty of mid east crude to fill the hole.

    You fail to recognize the cease fire in Lebanon cooling tensions and the fear premium.

    US oilcos have little to say on absolute oil prices.  And crude is down 10% heading into the low demand fall period.

    by HiD on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 03:27:51 PM PDT

•  Not so sure

  Yeah, we are really rolling in the dough now that gas is down to $2.87 per gallon!

  The fed is going to raise interest rates again and the housing market is still tanking while those "creative" mortgages are coming due and consumer debt continues to get more expensive to service.  Real wages are still below the 2000 levels and winter heating bills will be cracking up in 6 weeks or so.  

  Plus, Bush is still Bush and Iraq is still Iraq.  Yeah, he may get a bump, but I don't think it is going to be a bounce.

  by Pennsylvanian on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:39:45 AM PDT

  •  .15 cents a gallon vs huge increases in price

    for wood, copper, some food items .. it's a wash.

    And you are right, there are a lot of people totally tapped out on the re-fi, and are being squeezed by higher interest rates on  credit cards.

    by shpilk on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:49:03 AM PDT

    •  But the price of gasoline is

      what stares people in the face several times a week. All the other price increases a not apparent on a day to day basis.

      by yellowdog on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 10:04:01 AM PDT

•  Summer driving is over

  which is why the price just went down.

  by bejammin075 on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:42:52 AM PDT

  •  but I remember this happening in 2004 as well.

    I wonder if there's a correlation between gas prices and congressional elections.

    by billlaurelMD on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:47:16 AM PDT

    •  End of Aug. is always before the beginning of Nov

      I guess the answer could be determined by seeing what has happened in odd years. The end of the summer driving season is always going to be a couple months before the election.

      by bejammin075 on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:51:05 AM PDT

      •  Except for two

        things. One is the pipeline shutdown. That line supposedly fed the west coast. The other is that now is the time that they switch refineries from gasoline to heating oil. In the past that has led to higher, not lower, prices.

        by Mike S on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 10:00:33 AM PDT

        •  precisely...n/t

          by billlaurelMD on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 12:59:08 PM PDT

        •  educate yourself a little

          The ANS pipeline feeds nowhere but an oil terminal in Alaska.  The crude gets to end user by ship.  The West coast refiners can easily take in crude from other places to fill the shortfall of roughly 5% of their feed (200 MBD vs about 4MMBD total).

          your mogas/heat switchover is correct timewise but price wise is upside down.

          by HiD on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 03:31:14 PM PDT

          •  Thank you for telling

            me something that is the exact opposite of what I have observed for the last twenty years while telling me to "educate" myself. First it made me mad but then it reminded me so much of Bush that I had to laugh.

            by Mike S on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 04:42:17 PM PDT

            •  the plural of anecdote is not data

              go plot the spread between mogas and heat from DOE.  There is a seasonal swing back and forth.  It's not a mystery...

              http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

              If you don't even know where the ANS pipeline terminates, but care to speak with authority re the oil biz, I'll stick with recommending more education.

              by HiD on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 11:32:01 PM PDT

•  100% Wrong

  Just looking for something to blame.  That is the sign of a loser.

  I have been calling for a candidate in a red state.

  People are PO'd big time.  And when I ask for their issues, gas prices are way down the line.

  Ignore any posting like this.

  We have no one to blame but ourselves if we lose.

  GET THE HELL OUT AND WORK.

  by skeeters on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:46:13 AM PDT

•  Sorry but the strong negative numbers for

  Bush are not just based upon gas and oil prices. Once painted with the negative label, people are hesitant to go back to supporting a previously dissed out pol.

  There is already divergence in graph - Bush's rating does not track the oil prices tit-for-tat. It's more of a general agreement, and there are deviations - Oct 03 and Dec 05 as well as the latest upward 'baby swing' of the Chimpster's approval rating while gas prices remained flat.

  First hurricane to hit the Gulf will spike the prices, anyway. If not Ernesto, then another one.

  {FYI to all, water temps in the Gulf are way above normal, near record temps at Pensalcola}.

  by shpilk on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:47:22 AM PDT

  •  Hot water in the loop in the center of the Gulf

    Eventually a hurricane will make it in past the upper level blocks & just explode. Not something to look forward to for anybody.

    People are starting to realize that gas is not going back to $1. There's no spare capacity anywhere, few new wells, less new discoveries & threats all over. Nobody should make any promises. In a few years, $3 will seem cheap -if it doesn't already. I just finished my first big road trip in 6 years, & traffic was worse than ever.

    by Downpuppy on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 10:01:42 AM PDT

•  The hole that Bush has dug

  fortunately goes much deeper than temporary gas prices. Which could skyrocket on the next hurricane or threat of violence with Iran.

  I filled my tank this morning at $2.88 -- a steal it seemed in the Maryland suburbs. But it still cost $30 to fill the tank.

  I didn't leave smiling.

  by Naturegal on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:53:45 AM PDT

•  Diesel

  Retail diesel in the US has a deadline to go low-sulfur; 15 October this year.  Most refiners are opting to blend with biodiesel to replace sulfur's lubrication in the diesel.  

  Just a few pipeline or supply kinks during the conversion will push retail diesel prices up, oh I don't know, maybe $0.40/gal right around the time people are really making up their minds about candidates.

  Be prepared.  Position now to take advantage.  Make sure it's perceived as a Republican problem, not a tree-hugger problem.

  by horsewithnoname on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:56:34 AM PDT

  •  How many diesel drivers?

    I drive them (and run B100) but the percentage of diesel drivers is extremely small.

    If gas went up $.40 Bush would be toast.

    by racerx on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 12:12:47 PM PDT

    •  Don't the 18 wheelers use diesel? N/T

      by sailmaker on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 12:19:27 PM PDT

•  then you must keep asking WHY

  why was the price of oil skyhigh in the first place

  were we being GOUGED?

  what has changed now to make gas prices at the pump fall....nothing.  the pipline in alaska is still down, the mid east is still a mess,  the demand has not fallen so why is the price at the pump falling

  easy answer POLITICS.

  the mid terms are almost here and one of the top three things that is pissing off voters is the HIGH Price of oil....so POOF the price falls, really fast, for no reason whatsoever

  frame it as political games by BIG OIL...one of the main groups that will lose big time if Democrats win in nov.

  by KnotIookin on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 10:01:22 AM PDT

  •  easy answer is wrong

    oil prices are high because the world is demanding 85 MMBD of crude and is having trouble supplying that much reliably.

    by HiD on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 03:32:58 PM PDT

•  Correlation vs Causation

  From this graph, I think we can take away the lesson that Bush's approval rating has somewhat tracked gas prices over the past 5 years.  However, it's a big jump from there to the conclusion that gas prices are the primary mover of Bush's ratings.  As an example, Hurricane Katrina damaged Bush's ratings and caused a spike in gas prices.  The gas prices themselves did not cause the drop in approval.  

  What I'm seeing is that Bush has settled into a range between 35-40%.

  by andy76 on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 10:04:32 AM PDT

  •  Yes, there's a lot of multicolliniarity ...

    ... (NB. that's roughly when a bunch of explanatory variables are moving together and get tangled up) ...

    There's not only Katrina, but also the oil market tends to jump on bad news from Iraq, but bad news from Iraq is an independent factor in Big Bubba's s determined drive to leave the Presidency less popular than his daddy.

    by BruceMcF on Fri Sep 01, 2006 at 06:47:28 PM PDT

•  what about heating bills...

  ...the lag in gas/oil prices affecting heating bills/rates has to be considered too...particularly as people will be filling their fuel tanks, and/or getting their first gas bills of the year right around election time...

  by mstarr77 on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 10:05:47 AM PDT

•  BP Chairman's Note to Self

  "The record profits we have been making ove the past couple years have been great.  We have managed to beat back any calls for any kind of excess profits tax that might require us to invest in infrastructure rather than paying dividends or nice sized bonuses to our executives.  Let's cool things off for a little bit, and make sure that we are there for the Republican Party in their hour of need.  After all, what's a few months of less-than-record profits when we've got another 20 months to feed at the trough before the next election?"

  by klw1963 on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 10:13:09 AM PDT

•  Maybe

  maybe we should all go out and get some little stickers made up, ones that say:

  Why do the Republicans let the oil companies keep gouging you? Maybe because oil companies give 84% their money to Republicans?

  data here

  by racerx on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 12:22:31 PM PDT

  •  oops

    I meant to add that these stickers would fit nicely by the price on the pumps.

    heh.

    by racerx on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 12:23:40 PM PDT

•  Then we're in trouble once again

  Oil prices will continue to slide somewhat into the elections.  It's no revelation that big and the GOP are partners, and since the average American has the attention span of a teapot (and less intelligence) the "good news" about gas slipping to, say, $2.75/gallon will be manna from heaven for Bush and the filth that report to him and their colleagues in Congress.

  Further, MSM will devote far more time to garden variety idiocies like Jon Benet Ramsey, and if there's one thing we can count on democrats to accomplish it's that they'll run weak, disorganized campaigns with disjointed messages that are easy for the Rove slime-machine to distort.

  In other words, the only messages that all but the most committed democratic voters will hear will be  that energy prices are "falling" and the world is safer with republicans at the helm.

  My prediction:  falling gas prices or not, dems will make progress in the house and senate, but obtain control of neither.

  I'm hoping I'm wrong (I stand a better chance of being wrong in the House.)

  We need better candidates with better advisors.

  by Seth Ruffer on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 12:52:49 PM PDT