With all of the interest and disgust that we all feel about the Republican scheme to alter the way Electoral College votes in California are distributed, I decided to look at Presidential Election statistics from the past century. I took stats from Wikipedia and several other sources to find out the National Electoral College vote results and the actual Presidential Vote totals for California each year since 1900.
By taking the number of Electoral College votes that California offered during each election and redistributing them by percentage of the vote each candidate recieved, I then figured out what the changes in the National Electoral College vote totals would be.
Obviously, the totals changed each year - goes without saying. What was interesting is that the change never altered who would have won the Presidential Election. The major change would be the net value of winning the state vote in California.
Of the last 27 Presidential Elections, including and since 1900, the proposed changes in Electoral College Vote tallies in California would have benefitted the Republicans 12 times, and the Democrats 15 times. The five elections since 1992 would all have favored the Republicans, as the Democrats took all of California's Votes during those years. The average swing doesn't really make any statistical difference as the number of Votes on the line change, but as I said, the swing would never have changed the National Outcome.
Let's take a look at National Results for 2004 and California's Presidential Results for 2004 and note the changes this proposal would make.
Bush (R)took 286 EV's, Kerry took 252 EV's. California's 55 EV's all went to Kerry based on his 54.4% of the vote to Bush's 44.4%. If we divide California's votes by percentage, Kerry would have taken 30 EV's, Bush would have taken 24 EV's, and there would have been 1 EV left-over. (I do not know how the State proposes to deal with these fairly common left-over EV's, so I'm just going to note them. They would not have ever made a difference overall either). The National EV Tally would have been Bush 310, Kerry 227, and 1 left-over. Net effect, Democrats lose 25 EV's, but no change in the National Outcome.
More importantly to me, however, is how much LESS important California becomes when we (I just moved here!) divide our EV's like this. California goes from being a 55 EV behemoth to being a net +6 to the Democrats. In perspective, Oklahoma, Connecticutt, and Oregon were worth 7 EV's. Kansas, Arkansas, and Mississippi were worth 6 EV's. California Voters will be lowering their impact in National Elections to that of VASTLY smaller states.
Now, let's take a look at National Election Results for 2000 and California's Presidential Results for 2000.
Bush (R)took 271 EV's, Gore took 266 EV's, and 1 EV voter abstained. California's 54 EV's went to Gore based oon his 53.5% of the vote to Bush's 41.7. With the proposal, Gore would have taken 29 EV's to Bush's 23 EV's with 2 EV's left-over. The National EV Tally would have been Bush 294, Gore 241, 1 abstain, 2 left-over.
California would go from a net 54 EV's for the Democrats, to a net +6 EV's. During the 2000 Elections, Oregon, Mississippi, and Iowa were all worth 7 EV's. Kansas and Arkansas were worth 6 EV's. Again, we see the remarkable decline in impact that the millions of California voters would have under this new rule. Keep the above equivalents in mind as I briefly look at the 1996 and 1992 Presidential Elections.
- Clinton 379 (D)EV's, Dole 159 EV's. California's 54 EV's went to Clinton who took the state 51.1 % to Dole's 38.2% and Perot's 7.0%. The Proposal would have given Clinton 28 EV's, Dole 21 EV's, and Perot 4 EV's with 1 EV left-over. Instead of 54 EV's, California would have netted the Democrats +7 EV's. National results: Clinton 353, Dole 180, Perot 4, and 1 left-over.
- Clinton (D)370 EV's, Bush,Sr 168 EV's. California's 54 EV's went to Clinton who took the state 46.3% to Bush,Sr's 32.9% and Perot's 20.8%. The Proposal would have given Clinton 25 EV's, Bush,Sr 18 EV's, and Perot 11 EV's with 1 EV left-over. Again, instead of 54 EV's, California would have netted the Democrats +7 EV's. National results: Clinton 340, Bush,Sr 186, Perot 11, and 1 left-over.
Republicans took California in 1988 and 1984. Let's look:
- Bush,Sr (R)426 EV's, Dukakis 112 EV's. California's 47 EV's went to Bush,Sr who took the state 51.8% to Dukakis' 48.2%. The Proposal would have given Bush,Sr 24 EV's and Dukakis 23 EV's. Instead of 47 EV's, California would have netted the Republican's +1 EV's. By comparison, the following states netted their winners THREE TIMES MORE EV'S: Alaska, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Deleware, Vermont, and Washington,DC. National results: Bush,Sr 403, Dukakis 135.
- Reagan (R)525 EV's, Mondale 13 EV's. California's 47 EV's went to Reagan who took the state 57.5% to Mondale's 41.3%. The Proposal would have given Reagan 27 EV's and Mondale 19 EV's with 1 left-over EV. Instead of 47 EV's, California would have netted the Republicans +8 EV's. States that year worth 8 EV's included Colorado, South Carolina, Iowa, Connecticut, and Oklahoma. States worth between 9 - 11 EV's included Washington, Minnesota, Louisiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Maryland, and Kentucky. National results: Reagan 505, Mondale 32, and 1 left-over EV.
Republicans took California in 1980, 1976, and 1972. Let's look:
- Reagan 489 (R)EV's, Carter 49 EV's. California's 45 EV's went to Reagan who took the state 52.7% to Carter's 35.9% and Anderson's 8.6%. The Proposal would have given Reagan 24 EV's, Carter 16 EV's, and Anderson 4 EV's with 1 left-over EV. Instead of 45 EV's, California would have netted Republicans +8 EV's. See below for comparable EV state values. National results: Reagan 468, Carter 65, Anderson 4, and 1 left-over EV.
- Carter (D)297 EV's, Ford 240 EV's. California's 45 EV's went to Ford who took the state 49.3% to Carter's 47.6%. The Proposal would have given Ford 22 EV's and Carter 21 EV's, with 2 left-over EV's. Instead of 45 EV's, California would have netted the Republicans +1 EV - one third the value of the smallest states and DC. National results: Carter 318, Ford 217, and 2 left-over EV's.
- Nixon (R)520 EV's, McGovern 17 EV's. California's 45 EV's went to Nixon who took the state 55.0% to McGovern's 41.5%. The Proposal would have given Nixon 25 EV's, McGovern 19 EV's, with 1 left-over EV. Instead of 45 EV's, California would have netted the Republicans +6 EV's. National results: Nixon 500 EV's, McGovern 36 EV's, and 1 left over.
For the above 3 elections:
States worth 6 EV's: Arizona, Oregon, Arkansas.
States worth 7-8 EV's: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Mississippi, South Carolina, Connecticut.
States worth 9-10 EV's: Washington, Minnesota, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Maryland.
Republicans took California in 1968, while Democrats won in 1964.
- Nixon 301 (R)EV's, Humphrey 191 EV's, Wallace 46 EV's. California's 40 EV's went to Nixon who took the state 47.8% to Humphrey's 44.7%. The Proposal would have given Nixon 19 EV's, Humphrey 18 EV's, with 3 left-over EV's. California nets the Republican's +1 EV. National results: Nixon 280, Humphrey 209, Wallace 46, and 3 left-over EV's.
- Johnson (D)486 EV's, Goldwater 219 EV's, Byrd 15 EV's. California's EV's went to Johnson who took the state 59.1% to Goldwater's 40.8%. The Proposal would have given Johnson 24 EV's to Goldwater 16 EV's. California nets Democrats +8 EV's. National results: Johnson 470, Goldwater 68.
For the above 2 elections:
States worth 8 EV's: Oklahoma, Connecticut, South Carolina.
States worth 9-10 EV's: Washington, Minnesota, Lousiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Maryland.
Republicans took California in 1960, 1956, and 1952.
- J.F.K. (D)303, Nixon 219. California went to Nixon 50.1& to 49.6%, netting him 32 EV's. The Proposal would split the EV's down the middle, netting him nothing. National results: JFK 319, Nixon 203.
- Eisenhower (R)457 EV's, Stevenson 73 EV's, Jones 1 EV. California went to Eisenhower 55.4% to Stevenson's 44.3%, netting him 32 EV's. The Proposal would have given Eisenhower 18 EV's to Stevenson's 14 EV's, netting the Republican's 4 EV's. National results: Eisenhower 443, Stevenson 87.
- Eisenhower (R)442 EV's, Stevenson 89 EV's. California went to Eisenhower 56.8% to Stevenson's 42.3% netting him 32 EV's. The Proposal would have given Eisenhower 18 EV's to Stevenson's 14 EV's, netting the Republican's 4 EV's. National results: Eisenhower 428, Stevenson 103.
For the above 3 elections:
States worth 4 EV's: AZ, ID, UT, NM, ND, SD, NH, RI, MT.
Democrats took California in 1948 and 1944.
- Truman (D)303 EV's, Dewey 189 EV's, Strom Thurmond 39 EV's. California went to Truman 47.6% to Dewey's 47.1 % and Wallace's 4.7%, netting him 25 EV's. The Proposal would have given Truman 12 EV's, Dewey 12 EV's, and Wallace 1 EV, netting the Democrats nothing. National results: Truman 290, Dewey 201, Strom 39, Wallace 4.
- F.D.R. (D)432 EV's, Dewey 99 EV's. California went to FDR 56.5% to Dewey's 43.0%, netting him 25 EV's. The Proposal would have given FDR 14 EV's to Dewey's 11 EV's, netting the Democrats 3 EV's. National results: FDR 421, Dewey 110.
For the above 2 elections:
States worth 4 EV's AZ, UT, ID, NM, MT, ND, SD, NH, RI.
FDR and the Democrats took California BIG TIME in 1940, 1936, and 1932.
- F.D.R. (D)449 EV's, Willkie 82 EV's. CA went to FDR 57.4% to 41.3% netting 22 EV's. Under the Proposal, FDR gets 13 EV's, Willkie 9 EV's for a net of +4. National results: FDR 440, Willkie 91.
- F.D.R. (D)523 EV's, Landon 8 EV's. CA went to FDR 67.0% to 31.7% netting 22 EV's. Under the Proposal, FDR gets 15 EV's, Landon 7 EV's for a net of +8. National results: FDR 516, Landon 15.
- F.D.R. (D)472 EV's, Hoover 59 EV's. CA went to FDR 58.4% to 37.4% netting him 22 EV's. Under the Proposal, FDR gets 13 EV's, Hoover 8 EV's, and 1 left-over EV with a net of +5. National results: FDR 463, Hoover 67. and 1 left-over.
For the above 3 elections:
States worth 4 EV's: VT, ID, MT, ND, SD, NH, RI
States worth 5 EV's: OR
States worth 8 EV's: WA, WV, CT, MD, SC
States worth 9-10 EV's: KS, AR, LA, MS
Republicans took California in 1928, 1924, and 1920. Democrats won in 1916. 1912 was an odd election where CA actually split it's EV's between Roosevelt running as a Progressive - who won the state - and Democrats who came in second.
- Hoover (R)444 EV's, Smith 87 EV's. CA went to Hoover 64.7% to 34.2% netting him 13 EV's. Under the Proposal, Hoover gets 8 EV's and Smith gets 4 EV's with 1 left-over EV for a net of +5. National results: Hoover 439, Smith 91, 1 left-over EV.
- Coolidge (R)382 EV's, Davis 136 EV's, LaFollette(Soc) 13 EV's. CA went to Coolidge 57.2% to Socialist LaFollette's 33.1% and Democrat Davis 8.2%, netting Coolidge 13 EV's. The Proposal would give Coolidge 7 EV's, LaFollette's 4 EV's, and Davis' 1 EV. National results: Coolidge 377, Davis 137, and LaFollette 17.
- Harding (R)404 EV's, Cox 127 EV's. CA went to Harding 66.2% to 24.3% netting him 13 EV's. Under the Proposal, Harding gets 9 EV's and Cox gets 3 EV's with 1 left-over EV, for a net +6. National results: Harding 400, Cox 130, 1 left-over.
- Wilson (D)277 EV's, Hughes 254 EV's. CA went to Wilson 46.7& to 46.3% netting him 13 EV's. Under the Proposal, California's EV's split 6 to 6 with 1 left-over EV, netting ZERO EV's. National results: Wilson 270, Hughes 260.
- Wilson (D)435 EV's, Roosevelt (Prog)88 EV's, Taft (R)80 EV's. CA went to Roosevelt 41.83% to Wilson's 41.81% and the Socialists 11.7%. Taft (R) was not on the ballot. California split their EV's, giving 11 to Roosevelt and 2 to Wilson. Under the Proposal, Roosevelt and Wilson get 5 EV's, while the Socialist Party gets 2 EV's, and 1 EV is left-over. Net is ZERO EV's. National results: Wilson 438, Roosevelt 82, Taft 80, Socialists 2, and 1 left-over.
For the above 5 elections:
States worth 4 EV's: ID, UT, MT, VT, NH
States worth 5-6 EV's: ND, SD, RI, ME
Republicans won California in last century's first three elections.
- Taft (R)321 EV's, Bryan 162 EV's. Under Proposal, Taft 317, Bryan 162.
- Roosevelt (R)336 EV's, Parker 140. Under Proposal, Roosevelt 332, Parker 143.
- McKinley (R)292, Bryan 155. Under Proposal, McKinley 288, Bryan 159.
BOTTOM LINE: California's stature and importance in the National Elections will be reduced to at or below the level of states such as Kansas. And Kansas has less than a tenth of the population of California.
And if voting patterns DO change, who here doesn't think that the Republicans will use OUR VERY ARGUMENTS to overthrow this bit of nonsense?