Fed up with the choices of the two major parties, a disgruntled group of voters and activists is gearing up to break away and start a third party in time for the 2008 presidential race.
This might be the best news progressives will get this fall. I will explain after the jump.
I'm not talking about the Greens, other Naderites, or even the Sam Waterson Unity movement. Nope, after eight years of Bush, discontent with perceived Republican front-runner Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich's presidential run over before it started, Fred Thompson's run stumbling since the starting blocks, and Mike Huckabee seemingly still not getting traction, the religious right is angry enough to try another way.
A powerful group of conservative Christian leaders decided Saturday at a private meeting in Salt Lake City to consider supporting a third-party candidate for president if a pro-choice nominee like Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination.
The meeting of about 50 leaders, including Focus on the Family's James Dobson, the Family Research Council's Tony Perkins and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer, who called in by phone, took place at the Grand America Hotel during a gathering of the Council for National Policy, a powerful shadow group of mostly religious conservatives. James Clymer, the chairman of the U.S. Constitution Party, was also present at the meeting, according to a person familiar with the proceedings.
"The conclusion was that if there is a pro-abortion nominee they will consider working with a third party," said the person, who spoke to Salon on the condition of anonymity.
Abortion, perhaps the only issue of importance to the Republican base that Rudy hasn't flip-flopped on since he decided to make his run, may be the issue that threatens to make a Giuliani general campaign the losing end of an electoral blowout.
We have seen plenty of signs of fundie discontent already. Dobson has expressed public displeasure with Rudy, McCain, and most recently Fred Thompson. Intolerance of Mitt Romney's faith may prove a stumbling block for many evangelical voters as well (as may be seen in this week's Newsweek poll in which a third of Republican voters thought America wasn't ready to elect a Mormon president). The religious right leaders are unhappy and do not see the current likely nominee as an option. The other well-funded candidate, while he talks a good game, is viewed with suspicion as well. And neither man is from the South.
Salon does not identify who the candidate of this third party might be. But Steve Benen provides context on the scare put into the W re-election campaign in 2004:
[T]his scenario made Karl Rove exceedinly nervous in 2004, when there were rumors that former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore might make a suitable far-right candidate, who would pick up support from Dobson & Co., split the right, and throw the election to the Democrats.
And that was with Bush, who is pretty conservative. A Giuliani candidacy is obviously far more problematic, given his scandalous personal history and his previous support for abortion rights, gay rights, gun control, and stem-cell research.
A Roy Moore (or other evangelical) 2008 candidacy would make for an Electoral College landslide. State polling for any of Clinton, Edwards, or Obama had them competitive with Rudy in head-to-head matchups in Mississippi -- a third-party alternative puts the South on the board. This move, more than any other, could ensure a Democrat in the White House in January 2008.
[EDITED TO ADD: I had neglected to post the link to Steve Benen's piece in Talking Points Memo, so that's been added. Read Talking Points Memo, it's good for democracy.]