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We've got a long way to go on this one.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect Susan Collins, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Collins?

Reelect 55
Consider 20
Replace 21


If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Allen, the Democrat, and Susan Collins, the Republican?

Collins (R) 56
Allen (D) 33

This one won't be easy. But Iraq will loom large, and hopefully will work to peel away Collins' significant Democratic and Independent support. Crosstabs are below the fold. I'll be commissioning periodic polls of this race to track our progress. Allen needs to push Collins below 50 percent within the next 4-6 months for this race to become top-tier. He's got the material to work with.

Collins enables Bush and his war, and will continue enabling war-mongering Republicans if she is reelected. No matter how much voters may personally like her, that is the reality.

Research 2000 is an independent polling outfit that does work for newspapers all over the country. This isn't a "partisan" poll or pollster. And given the results of this poll, I think that speaks for itself.

On the web: Tom Allen for Senate

MAINE POLL RESULTS - OCTOBER 2007

                                                                 
The Research 2000 Maine Poll was conducted from October 15 through October 17, 2007. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                 287   (48%)              
Women               313   (52%)
Democrats           186   (31%)    
Republicans         169   (28%)    
Independents/Other  245   (41%)
18-29                91   (15%)
30-44               185   (31%)
45-59               205   (34%)
60+                 119   (20%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Susan Collins? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV     FAV    UNFAV   UNFAV   NO OPINION  

ALL                 22%     36%     24%      9%      9%

MEN                 21%     35%     27%      9%      8%
WOMEN               23%     37%     21%      9%     10%
DEMOCRATS           15%     26%     37%     14%      8%
REPUBLICANS         28%     44%     16%      6%      6%
INDEPENDENTS        24%     38%     20%      7%     11%
18-29               19%     34%     27%     11%      9%
30-44               25%     38%     21%      7%      9%
45-59               21%     35%     25%      9%     10%
60+                 22%     37%     23%      9%      9%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Susan Collins is doing as U.S. Senator? (If approve or disapprove, ask if it is strongly or not):

                    STRG                   STRG
                    APP    APP    DISAPP   DISAPP  NOT SURE  

ALL                 21%     35%     26%     10%      8%

MEN                 20%     33%     19%     11%      7%
WOMEN               22%     37%     21%      9%      9%
DEMOCRATS           13%     24%     32%     16%      7%
REPUBLICANS         28%     46%     12%      6%      3%
INDEPENDENTS        22%     36%     18%      9%     11%
18-29               18%     21%     32%     13%      7%
30-44               25%     26%     37%      8%      8%
45-59               20%     23%     34%     10%      8%
60+                 20%     19%     36%      9%      9%


QUESTION: If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect Susan Collins, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Collins?

                  REELECT   CONSIDER   REPLACE   NOT SURE  

ALL                 55%       20%       21%        4%

MEN                 53%       21%       23%        3%
WOMEN               57%       19%       19%        5%
DEMOCRATS           38%       26%       34%        2%
REPUBLICANS         72%       11%        7%       10%
INDEPENDENTS        57%       21%       20%        2%
18-29               52%       22%       24%        2%
30-44               58%       19%       17%        6%
45-59               54%       20%       21%        5%
60+                 56%       20%       21%        3%


QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Allen, the Democrat, and Susan Collins, the Republican?

                  COLLINS     ALLEN       UNDECIDED        

ALL                 56%         33%         11%

MEN                 55%         35%         10%
WOMEN               57%         31%         12%
DEMOCRATS           37%         54%          9%
REPUBLICANS         75%         11%         14%
INDEPENDENTS        57%         33%         10%
18-29               53%         35%         12%
30-44               59%         30%         11%
45-59               55%         34%         11%
60+                 57%         33%         10%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

                  APPROVE     DISAPPROVE    NOT SURE        

ALL                 28%         71%          1%

MEN                 31%         68%          1%
WOMEN               25%         74%          1%
DEMOCRATS            7%         92%          1%
REPUBLICANS         71%         28%          1%
INDEPENDENTS        15%         84%          1%
18-29               23%         76%          1%
30-44               35%         65%          -%
45-59               26%         73%          1%
60+                 26%         72%          2%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 01:20 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  This is exactly why Reid & Pelosi (8+ / 0-)

    need to stand up and offer a different direction. The war is not a wedge issue if the opposition party doesn't do anything about it.

  •  it's the faux moderate and the media (4+ / 0-)

    Susan collins is out of touch with the state but has this baloney image.

    She's right wing, make no mistake about it.

    I shall not rest until right wing conservatives are 4th party gadflies limited to offering minor corrections on legislation once or twice a year.

    by davefromqueens on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 01:23:36 PM PDT

  •  Thanks for ponying up (2+ / 0-)

    for the polling for us, Markos.

  •  Dang I thought (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Superribbie, chrisRunner7, mconvente

    Allen was doing better than that.

  •  I'm not surprised. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jxg, wmacdona66

    I'm so much less optimistic about this cycle then most people.

    "No government has the right to tell its citizens whom to love. The only queer people are those who don't love anybody." - Rita Mae Brown (-5.38, -7.08)

    by AUBoy2007 on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 01:27:00 PM PDT

  •  Guardsmen Return (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    madgranny

    Yesterday when a Maine National Guard unit returned from Iraq, Collins was there to greet them and describe for the TV cameras how frequent and long deployments are so unfair to guardsmen and their families.  

    No mention of her mistake in voting to send them there in the first place of course.  

    But she feels for them.  So that makes it all right.

    •  Tom & Baldacci were there yesterday.... (0+ / 0-)

      The ceremony, set to the music of the Maine State Select Honor Guard/195th

      Army Band, began with speeches from Gov. John Baldacci and Rep. Tom Allen.

      Baldacci thanked the soldiers for their commitment and dedication to duty and said he was proud of the leadership this state has in its guard and the support it gives to the soldiers' families.

      "Making sure family support groups are there is the utmost importance in your minds," Baldacci said.

      Allen said the country is committed to providing veteran and healthcare services to soldiers who served in Iraq.

      "We're going to do everything we can to get them the services they need for what they've done for their country," Allen said.

  •  Um (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MI Sooner

    QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Allen, the Democrat, and Susan Collins, the Republican?

    DEMOCRATS: 37% Collins, 54% Allen

    Perhaps that question was worded poorly.

    Or there has to be some reason for Collins getting such a high percentage, when there is typically a gap between approval and a showing in a horserace.

    Seriously.. 54/37, if legitimate, is a really bad starting point for Allen. Especially when you consider that Allen and Collins have been in DC for the same amount of time.

    "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

    by RBH on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 01:29:46 PM PDT

  •  Question (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mainefem, madgranny

    Where are the pro-choice groups going to be this time around?

    Any pro-choice group that endorses Collins, or even stays neutral in the race, after she voted to confirm Roberts and Alito, needs to get a swift kick in the ass from its members.

  •  Approval dropped like a rock... (3+ / 0-)

    Collins used to have approval ratings last year in the 70s.  Now it's down to 56, that's an amazing drop.  I think that's success so far, so there's hope for the next six months.

    (And thanks, kos, for throwing in the Bush approval question!)

  •  The Bangor Daily News did an online poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    crodri

    on this last week - and the numbers were nearly identical.  I truly do not know what ails some of the people here - I think that Mainers tend to vote what they are comfortable and familiar with.  This also explains why some of the state legislators retain their seats in spite of their records.  So much for the state's motto of "Dirigo" - "I lead".

    When will our consciences grow so tender that we will act to prevent human misery rather than avenge it? - Eleanor Roosevelt

    by seefleur on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 01:33:54 PM PDT

  •  A Hard Race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    crodri

    My family has a house in Maine and I spent alot of time up there, especially this summer.

    Having been up there for a good part of the summer, I've come to realize Allen is teetering on the edge of not standing a chance against Collins. She still has a great deal of support up there, not only from Republicans, but independents, who make up a plurality of Maine voters, and even some Democrats I know. A Democratic friend of mine in Maine said he would vote for Allen, but won't because "We're going to have a Democratic President anyway"

    Collins, like Snowe, has done a good job breaking herself away from Bush, and she's still popular in Maine for being moderate. Mainers like her because she's a Mainer. Iraq will make it harder for her to win, but i think she still will win.

    The only way we get this seat is if she leaves. She's not and we're probably not gonna win this one.

  •  She needs to be presented as a true rightwinger (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AdmiralNaismith, crodri

    I think she's popular because she hides her right wing views well.  This is going to be a tough race for sure.  Looking at the numbers, I think one reason this race is so much in favor of Collins is that Allen only wins 54% of Democrats.  The huge percentage for her of Democrats will ensure her reelection unless Allen is able to change it.

    Obama-Villaraigosa 08'!

    by SoCalLiberal on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 01:40:43 PM PDT

  •  my 2 cents (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AdmiralNaismith, mainefem

    If you say you're a Democrat and you vote for a Republican, guess what?  You are a Republican.  

    "The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself" - Franklin Delano Roosevelt

    by djbender on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 01:44:28 PM PDT

  •  Once again I'd like to point out that tags for (0+ / 0-)

    diaries on the front page DO NOT WORK. Not all of us can check the front page, and as this diary will have scrolled away tomorrow, anyone searching for a diary with the tag "Maine" or any of the rest here WILL NOT FIND THIS DIARY.

    Can this please be fixed?

    "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities." -- Winston Churchill

    by Spud1 on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 01:53:36 PM PDT

  •  The war isn't the issue in Maine (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    crodri

    I was born and lived most of my life in Maine, but I've escaped!!  The truth is the war is not the deciding issue in that state.  It's PORK PORK PORK.  I'll give you an example.  The Bangor waterfront has gotten huge sums of federal government money for revitalization.  Millions of dollars for the only "major" city in the northern half of the state.   Susan Collins brings home the bacon, and her newspaper, the Bangor Daily News trumpets that loud and clear.  

    Tom Allen, I hate to say it, is kind of a John Kerry clone.   And I don't think that plays that well in the north.  It would be interesting to see the geographic breakdown of the poll.   I would think, although I could be wrong, that in northern Maine, she beats Allen by a huge margin.   Portland is probably about even.  Maybe Allen ahead a bit, but the giant margin in the north probably overcomes it.  

    He can probably win pretty handily in Portland, but everywhere else he's going to have trouble.   War or not.  

    I also think that the camera guy following her around for Allen hurt him badly.   Even though it might be fair play in today's campaigns, she got out in front on that issue and trounced him on it.  

    Don't get me wrong I think she's a horror show, but at this point after that poll, I'm thinking it's going to be a tall order to beat her.  

    •  That's too bad about the pork (0+ / 0-)

      It's one of the biggest reasons that Joe got reelected, right up there with the fact that he's good at lying.

      I was hoping this race would turn into sort of a Whitehouse-Chafee clone... you know, get rid of her by emphasizing how out rotten the national Republicans are.  We need that seat to get closer to overriding filibuster attempts.

    •  Collins brings home "pork" (0+ / 0-)

      for General Dynamics (Bath Shipyard) & formerly MBNA--who rec'd mucho tax breaks, then pulled out of Maine (Maine has one of the highest foreclosure, prime lending ripoff, & bankruptcy rates).

      Otherwise, winter is on its way, folks.

      shrub has slashed LIHEAP, screwed up Medicare part D to no end (we have elderly poor seniors, who need meds, thanks)--not to mention, SCHIP.

      Collins and Snowe always rush in w/some sort of screwball "amendment" (which doesn't stand a rat's butt chance of passage); and it's the media who falls for every dad time.

      Gas and oil prices are at an all-time high here, BTW.

      People reside in older homes (difficult to heat), our heating season runs through May--easily; and people commute outrageous miles to work and back on a daily basis.

      Tax cuts for the rich haven't been a boon, by any stretch of the imagination....

      This a campaign against the media, nearly as much as it's against Collins' duplicity.

      Look for what's missing in Maine's MSM, folks.

  •  While the continued occupation of Iraq (3+ / 0-)

    will probably be the most important issue, a very close second, third and fourth will be:

    Lack of good paying jobs;

    Access to affordable health care, and in rural areas, actual access to health care;

    Loss of Fed funding for local schools.

    There is an attempt to allow another 'racino' (a slot machine parlor attached to a harness racing track) here in Washington County, a sparsely populated and depressed rural area. This is being billed as a jobs creation project, despite the fact that there is no harness racing track to attach a slots parlor to. More on this here.

    Also, Maine has one of the highest tax burdens of any state, in large part because Mainers eanr about 1/3 less than those in Massachusetts, New Hampshire or Connecticut. There is a lot of pressure to cap or reduce property taxes here, and some of you may recall the attempt to pass a TABOR referendum last year.

    I encourage all of you interested in Maine politics so visit Turn Maine Blue.

    "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities." -- Winston Churchill

    by Spud1 on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 02:04:07 PM PDT

  •  most similar race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ramo

    In Sept 2005, Lincoln Chafee was up 38-25 on Sheldon Whitehouse.

    Yup, this is going to require some effort.

    •  Indeed this race is going to require some effort (0+ / 0-)

      As you've said before, in order to unseat an incumbent, the challenger must convince the voters that their choice in the last election must be revoked, and that the alternative is superior.  That's a tall order for anyone -- even for Bob Casey, who so convincingly unseated Rick Santorum.  The first poll -- the one showing Maine voters wanting to keep Susan Collins -- is the more important and telling one at this time.

      The doctor said I wouldn't have so many nose bleeds if I kept my finger outta there. - Ralph Wiggum

      by jim bow on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 06:54:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  because things won't change anyway... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wmacdona66

    that's why I really don't care if Susan Collins gets elected or if Allen does. after 25 years of rooting for the dems and supporting them with dollars and time, i've decided to call it a day. who woulda' thought that the dems winning control of congress would make me despise their pathetic crap more than I despise the current administration. i gave to dodd when he threatened to fillibuster.  I'll give to moveon.  screw the democrats and tom allen and harry reid and nancy pelosi.

    •  Haha, I feel like this pretty often (0+ / 0-)

      Most of them *are* a bunch of scared, calculating pussies, and it looks like they just want to hold on until next fall's elections.

      But then I have a swing of optimism, and think about a President Edwards or a President Obama.

      And maybe Feingold as Majority Leader, I think that'd be pretty sweet.

  •  guess i gotta change my byline also. (0+ / 0-)
  •  How much does polling cost? (0+ / 0-)

    This does seem like a natural activity for Kos Enterprises to fund when possible and/or applicable.

    •  Depends on the firm; (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      crodri

      For a live-call firm like R2000, a five question survey like this that reaches 600 voters would probably cost between $2K - $5K. Kos probably negotiated a contract with R2000, though, given the visibility that the firm gets for every poll they release.

  •  The rest of the nation doesn't understand Maine (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    crodri

    I grew up there, but I now only spend a couple months a year there, so there are plenty of people in Maine who understand it more.  But I've said it before that the Maine Senate is not anywhere near as much in play as it should be on paper.  Much as I like Allen, the odds are very very low that Collins gets voted out.  We almost certainly have a better chance of taking out McConnell in Kentucky than Collins in Maine.  There are three reasons why:

    1.Party does not mean nearly as much to people in Maine as it does elsewhere.  It just doesn't.  I don't believe there is a lot higher percentage of independents, it's just that many registered democrats and republicans don't think of the party first.  As long as I can remember (I'm  37) it hasn't.  The corellary of that is that people in Maine are not going to be as likely to blame the current debacle largely on the republicans.  Of course there are plenty of individuals who vary from what I'm saying, but taken as a whole, I believe this to be accurate.

    2.People in Maine tend to vote more for individuals than for their policies.  Essentially, if they've liked someone in the past, it is harder than in most places to get them to change their minds.  In some ways this is a throwback to the way the whole country was 50 years ago, and there are other places in the country where it is still true as well.  But it is particularly true in Maine.  Those of us in the online community can easily see how Collins' votes are counter to the strong opposition to the war that you will find in Maine.  But except for the first year of the war or so, she has been careful not to be an aggressive cheerleader, and it has paid off.  Mainers do not blame her for the war even as much as Rhode Islanders blamed Chaffee - and he actually voted against it!

    3.The Olympia Snowe effect.  You can laugh, but Olympia Snowe is beloved in Maine and has been for 3 decades.  She would have to literally commit a violent felony to lose her seat.  Collins benefits from being a fellow female republican.  It sounds stupid, but voting for Collins "feels" a bit like voting for Snowe.  And when the sense of an individual is the most important criteria for voting, this absolutely matters.

    That's not to say we give up of course.  But this will probably not be a top tier race.  This is the type of place where the national party should be vocally supportive and send some decent dollars into targeted ads against Collins/for Allen early on, but don't keep throwing good money after bad unless Allen gets within 10 for 3 or 4 polls in a row.  The money would be better spent in Oregon or Minnesota, two races that are very winnable but also are very losable.

    "New World Orders" is the exciting new novel of global warming and conspiracy by Ed Parrot and Jason Derrig. Visit www.edwardgtalbot.com for more information.

    by eparrot on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 02:57:08 PM PDT

  •  This is a warning sign for Dems. (0+ / 0-)

    We need to make ending the war and withdrawing troops a priority issue.  With a Democratic Congress not working hard enough to change policy, GOP incumbents with some moderate credentials can win.  You need to ratchet up the intensity as we did in 2006 to get people like Collins out.  

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 03:42:00 PM PDT

  •  Nix "polling" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AdmiralNaismith

    Here is Craig Cote's Bangor Daily News 8.20.07 OpEd:

    Get Out of Iraq

    Franklin, ME is outrageously "red," BTW.

    Collins pulled a no-show on the Iraq public forum @U/Maine, BTW (Cote addressed the audience as keynote).

    Guess who attended?

    (U/Maine is five mi. from her home).

    Tom.

    Pls. lose the "polling" mentality, folks.

    As I noted yesterday & earlier today, Tom is running hard and strong (esp. in CD#2).

    See Collins' "dirty tricks revealed" fmi.

    We're fighting a MSM "war" up here, vs. polling.

    Thanks~

    •  Iraq Public Forum not a neutral forum (0+ / 0-)

      Tom Allen showed up at this event because it was sponsored by the Democratically affiliated Americans Against the Escalation in Iraq.  And even at an event set up to "peacewash" his campaign, he couldn't stay out of the middle of the road.  He basically admitted that although he voted against the authorization for war in 2002 (basically his only credential toward being anti-war), he was in favor of another resolution being considered that differed in the amount of international support required before military intervention.  He had a room full of people who were dying to have a candidate to feel good about, and he "Kerry-ed" them.

      And it will only get worse.  Allen tries to skate and finesse around why he continuously voted for every war budget from 2003-2006 (one of the most pro-war voting records for House Democrats).  If he would have admitted that he might have erred, misjudged, anything, there may have been some forgiveness.  Instead, he comes across as arrogant and superior, and he has disappointed the peace community to the point where an independent candidate has announced that she's soon entering the race.

      •  Were *you* in attendance??? (0+ / 0-)

        I was (up front, taking pics--I am strictly an unpaid volunteer for Tom, BTW).

        There were Peace & Justice "plants" (the self-aggrandizing "sit-in" crowd) in the audience (primarily Maine Independent Green party members), who were intentionally rude as hell to Tom.

        We don't tend to behave rudely in public up here--esp. interrupting someone while they're attempting to articulate a point.

        When you live in an areas this "small" (despite Maine's vast rural nature in square mileage), you tend to know who is who--as well as their agendas.

        Tom was more than courteous and respectful to them, despite it all (I wouldn't have been--I guess that's why I'm not a diplomat or a politician, eh)?

        Collins' invitation had been hand-delivered to her in plenty of time (she still blew it off).

        Snowe sent a long statement (which was read to all); as did Rep. Mike Michaud (sent a video).

        ...nor was the BDN in attendance (5 mi. away).

        I did meet the so-called MDP "tracker," BTW (he shot the videos embedded herein).

        He's financially compensated to not only "track" Collins--but also Tom (or any other Maine Democratic party candidate who needs him, for that matter).

        •  Are "you" really from Maine? (0+ / 0-)

          I was in attendance - I was the person who said they were discouraged by Tom Allen's persistent blank-checking of the war from 2003-2006 while my cousin was constantly re-deployed to the middle east.  As far as "rude", I thought I was very respectful, as were most people with the exception of the gentleman asking about impeachment.  The peace and justice group  members you call "Greens" included at least 10 delegates to the 2004 Maine Democratic convention, including myself.

          The people in attendance had been told the week before that this would be an actual town meeting, with at least an hour for questions and comments.  On the night of the event, comments/questions were scheduled for 11 minutes - many people didn't think this was very respectful of them and their time.

          And why would Susan Collins come to a Democratic Party event?  Most people knew this was a partisan group that was not really interested in the issue of peace past what it would gain their candidate.  You can complain about the peace and justice crowd all you want, but they've been out there since before the war started doing what they can.  When a group like "Americans against the surge in Iraq" comes along, pretends like anti-war resistance started with them, and start posing as a peace group (taking considerable funds away from the groups that have been working before day one), you should expect people to not take that lying down.  Tom Allen is a Johnny come lately to the anti-war movement, and if he would admit that, he would be a lot better off.

        •  doesn't matter if you think it's funny (0+ / 0-)

          It's real, and will siphon off votes that Tom Allen can't afford to lose right now.  Remember, of the delegates for president picked by the caucuses in 2004, Dean and Kucinich gained over 50% - the progressive Democrats are very strong in Maine, and if you add the Green vote (which very enthusiastically went to Jean Hay Bright in 2006), Laurie Dobson gets a substantial number of votes.  And if she is on the right side of the issues and Tom Allen is not, then shame on him.  

           

  •  Link to poll & research methodology, pls.? (0+ / 0-)

    I've never heard of this "Research 2000" outfit in my life.

    Sounds screwy to me.

  •  It's hard to believe (0+ / 0-)

    that Collins' numbers are that high, I mean 37% support from Democrats! WTF?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, ... I'm a Democrat." Will Rodgers

    by CCSDem on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 04:57:05 PM PDT

  •  This will be tough but not impossible (0+ / 0-)

    I've lived in Portland since '93.  Allen needs to energize the base and then convince the independents that there is nothing "independent" about Susan Collins.  Hammer her over the head with Iraq over and over and over.  It's still a year away so there's a lot of time left.  It's like the Red Sox being down 3 games to 1.....it's a problem but we've still got our aces in the bullpen.  Don't give up on this one people!  Go to Tom's site and donate now!

    I'm just a symptom of the moral decay that's gnawing at the heart of the country.

    by TomT on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 05:14:53 PM PDT

    •  Donate on my sig line, too (0+ / 0-)

      Tom isn't one-issue on this race (FISA is a prime example--as is healthcare...yes, for those vets who aren't receiving it!), folks (and for you nutjob "MaineImpeach" Greenies on this thread....impeachment ain't gonna happen).

      Go read his portal on the issues.

      Ever.

      Pelosi can't even muster up overrides on basic life & death legislation....how in hell do you perceive that impeachment is even doable?

      I'm still awaiting to see this "poll's" full report (esp. its methodology).

      I've lived inD C#2 for 52 yrs., BTW.

      It's poor as hell; and Collins' votes are killing us.

      Politics doesn't happen while the goddamned tourists are here, BTW (those of you who "summer" here for a couple of weeks don't see what transpires the rest of the year).

  •  Spine (0+ / 0-)

    I have called and emailed Tom Allen's office numerous times.   Response invariably has been spineless triangulating .  The man will not have anything to do with pleas from Maine voters to sign on to impeachment.   That to me is a real  test that he is failing on.  My wife is planning a fundraiser for him and I will damn sure vote for him,  but shit,  why can't the man find a spine and speak out plainly about the thugs running this country.  
         When he and Sen. Clinton can stand up and say they screwed up by giving the Shrub money and power to wage war anyway he sees fit,   then I will have a lot more respect for them and will pitch in a lot more time and money.  In the meantime it ain't easy being optimistic up here.

  •  This is very doable (2+ / 0-)
    1. Tom is more in step with Mainers on top rung issues like Iraq, economic and energy policies, and health care.
    1. Susan is a rubber stamp for Bush on those issues, no matter what she tries to say at home and no matter how moderate she tries to sound. Can someone just say Sam Alito?
    1. Tom has a year to whittle away at her. This race will be won with steadiness.
    1. Besides ads from outside groups, there hasn't been any media yet. Remember, we are talking a year out.
    1. Tom has already constructed quite an impressive team of professionals who have been on the ground putting everything in place, raising money, and working the ground game. Collins has been running her campaign out of the Senate office and has no campaign structure.
    1. Lincoln Chafee was more popular the day he was defeated than this poll says Collins is right now. And he voted against the war.
    1. Tom's message revolves around substance and issues (see number 2), while Collins wants to play victim and deal in tactics.

    8 - 10. Iraq and the myriad issues -- Halliburton/KBR/Blackwater/lack of privacy/torture -- that go with it, her support for the superwealthy, pharmaceutical companies and Big Oil, her superloyalty to Bush and Cheney -- will help do her in. And did I mention Sam Alito?

  •  How was Whitehouse polling this time 2 years ago? (0+ / 0-)

    That RI race, it seems to me, is the most comparable one to Maine 2008.

    Ms. Pelosi, a "KICK ME" sign on your own back is not an effective fashion statement!

    by AdmiralNaismith on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 06:28:08 PM PDT

    •  Whitehouse (0+ / 0-)

      was behind 25%-38% in September 2005.  

      •  Then Allen is still top tier. (0+ / 0-)

        We can do it.  It's up to the netroots.

        Bill in Portland, Maine will drop a ton of Snark on Collins that she will never wipe off. Not as long as she lives.

        Ms. Pelosi, a "KICK ME" sign on your own back is not an effective fashion statement!

        by AdmiralNaismith on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 09:21:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think so (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      philinmaine

      Rhode Island is overwhelmingly Democratic, Maine is not.

      Maine will elect moderate Republicans because of the high number of Independents who aren't 100% loyal to either party.

      In Rhode Island, getting the Democratic vote out was enough to swamp Chafee, and even then only barely. I don't think the same factor is reliable in Maine. If we expect everyone who voted for Kerry four years ago to come out for Allen, we are going to be unpleasantly surprised.

      This race may have been easier if it was last year when we knew our unpopular president was still in office two more years. We cannot use Bush as a cammpaign tool, he'll be out of office by the time the new Senate goes into session. We need to convince Mainers than Collins was a Bush enabler and needs to be punished for it. This is not going to be as easy as it was in places like Missouri, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana and Virginia last year, or in New Hampshire or Minnesota this cycle.

      •  Kerry won Maine by 9 (0+ / 0-)

        And Gore won it by 5 before that. The nominee in 08 -- Hillary, Obama, whomever -- will win by double digits. Maine is the bluest state of those on the map this year.

        Collins is a Bush enabler and Allen will let the folks in Maine know it.

  •  The Outside Ads have Hurt Allen (0+ / 0-)

    As a 2nd district Mainer here, this race is still early, and there has been almost no coverage. That said, the coverage here has been heavily focused on the ads Moveon.org and other groups have been running against Collins

    Maine is not a negative state, and tends to punish negativity(see 2002 Pingree v. Collins). For the last four months we've watched non-stop ads hitting Collins on everything. While I think these ads were effective in the spring, we have long since reached the saturation point. Now they just look negative.

    To make matters worse we have seen no positive Allen ads. This would not be a problem except everyone I talk to thinks Allen is personally responsible for all the ads hitting Collins. Therefore all people know about him is that he is just attacking non-stop on Iraq.

    I think this has hurt him badly by making him appear one-issue in a state where several posters have pointed out economic development and geography are the major issues. This race is not undoable, but I would have sure liked to see Allens Fav/Unfav rating from this poll. I think that might be more concerning right now than the benchmark.

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