The CNN exit polls are a treasure trove of information....
here's a rough sketch sort through of some of the data...no numbers...just "strong" demographic and "weak" demographics for selected candidates.
The CNN exit polls show really interesting results, just rough sketches of each candidates strongest and weakest demographic segments, but I find them uncanny:
Methodology: If Kerry's average share was 50%...a segment he won 59% I am calling "strong", less than 43%..."weak."
ie. Relative only to his own totals...
but, basically, a description, within that, of where he was able to grab "more" voters from the pie, or "fewer."
Obviously, a very strong showing by a particular candidate in one demograhic means the others will be weak...where this is obvious...like Edwards "Understands My State" in SC...I factored that in.
As well, in Arizona, Gen. Clark won a pretty steady 20something percent of every demographic, so his "strengths" and "weaknesses" are less marked than someone whose support shows big fluctuations. But that won't show below.
I'm not a statistician, so forgive me in advance...it's still pretty interesting.
So, for MO:
Kerry found his strongest support in:
Over 65, Under $15,000, Economic Condition Worse under Bush, Economy Poor, HS Graduate, in Union, has "Right Experience" and "Can Beat Bush"
Edwards found his strongest support:
White Women, Independents, Conservative, Protestant, More than Weekly Church Attendance, "Satisfied/Enthusiastic" w/Bush admin., "Very Dissatisfied if Kerry" wins nom, "Cares about People" and "Positive Message"
Dean:
Under 45, over $100,000/year, family's financial situaton "Better", Post grad Study, Very Liberal, No Religion, Non Church Goer, Campaign Ads not important, Somewhat Dissatisfied if Kerry wins Nom, Taxes, "Stands for Beliefs."
Clark:
Independent, Iraq important, "Right Experience"
And in MO:
Kerry was weakest:
Family Finances Better, Conservatives, More than Weekly Church Attendance, those who made up their mind "today", those for whom "issues" are most important, those who see the economy as "Good or Excellent", those who see "Stands for Beliefs" and "Positive Message"
Edwards was weakest:
Non-white men, Non Church attending Catholics, those who made up their minds over a month ago, those for whom Iraq was the top issue, "Right Experience" and "Can Beat Bush".
Dean's weak demographics in MO were:
Non-white women, Over 65, H.S. Grads, Veterans, Moderates, those who made up their mind in the last month, those who say Health Care is most important issue, "Right Experience" and "Can Beat Bush"
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In South Carolina
Edwards strengths were:
Understands my State, Satisfied w/ Bush administration, Protestants and "Other" (ie. not Catholic or Jewish) religions
and his weakness were:
Households w/ 2 veterans, those w/ No Religion, those for whom Iraq is top issue, and those whose main concern is "Right Experience"
While John Kerry in South Carolina was strongest with:
Non-white men, Union members, 2 Veteran Households, those looking for work, those who made up their minds in the last week or 3 days, those for whom "Can Beat Bush" is the most important factor, "Right Experience"
and weakest:
Stands for Beliefs, those upbeat about the economy, those who made up their mind over a month ago.
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And for Arizona:
Kerry's Strengths:
Over 65, dual Veteran Households, Catholics, those who made up their mind in the last week, Can Beat Bush, Health Care, Right Experience
and weaknesses:
Very Conservative voters
Clark's Strengths:
Veterans, Protestant churchgoers, "Satisfied" with Bush Administration, Those whose top issue was "Taxes", "Right Temperament", "Cares about People"
and weaknesses:
Can beat Bush, Jewish voters, very conservative voters
Dean's strengths:
18-27 year olds, Very Liberal, those who made up their minds over a month ago, "Stands for Beliefs"
And Weak Points:
Can Beat Bush, Right Experience, National Security, those who made up their minds in the last week, Catholics
And finally Edwards Strengths in AZ:
Right Temperament, Positive Message
Weaknesses
Right Experience, Can Beat Bush