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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 4%  (9/24-26/07 results)

Cornyn (R) 48 (51)
Noriega (D) 44 (35)


That is nothing short of astounding. And lest anyone worry that it's an outlier, these numbers confirm a Rasmussen poll from earlier this week:

Rasmussen. 5/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Cornyn (R) 47
Noriega (D) 43


I also pitted McCain against both Obama and Clinton, and here, the results are a little less encouraging:

McCain (R) 52
Obama (D) 39

McCain (R) 53
Clinton (D) 38

Crosstabs below the fold.

TEXAS POLL RESULTS - MAY 2008

The Research 2000 Texas Poll was conducted from May 5 through May 7, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                 295    (49%)              
Women               305    (51%)
Democrats           199    (33%)    
Republicans         244    (41%)    
Independents/Other  157    (26%)
18-29               102    (17%)
30-44               198    (33%)
45-59               204    (34%)
60+                  96    (16%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Cornyn? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

              VERY                VERY   NO
              FAV    FAV   UNFAV  UNFAV  OPINION  
ALL           22%    28%    21%    20%     9%

MEN           23%    32%    19%    18%     8%
WOMEN         21%    24%    23%    22%    10%
DEMOCRATS     10%    17%    32%    33%     8%
REPUBLICANS   34%    39%    13%    10%     4%
INDEPENDENTS  20%    26%    20%    20%    14%
18-29         18%    25%    24%    24%     9%
30-44         27%    32%    18%    16%     7%
45-59         23%    29%    19%    18%    11%
60+           19%    26%    24%    23%     8%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Noriega? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

              VERY                VERY   NO
              FAV    FAV   UNFAV  UNFAV  OPINION  
ALL           18%    24%    17%    14%    27%

MEN           16%    21%    21%    16%    26%
WOMEN         20%    27%    13%    12%    28%
DEMOCRATS     33%    40%    10%     5%    12%
REPUBLICANS    7%    12%    26%    23%    32%
INDEPENDENTS  17%    23%    13%    11%    36%
18-29         22%    28%    13%    10%    27%
30-44         15%    20%    22%    18%    25%
45-59         16%    22%    20%    16%    26%
60+           20%    26%    14%    12%    28%


QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?

            CORNYN    NORIEGA   UNDECIDED    
ALL           48%       44%        8%
   

MEN           53%       40%        7%
WOMEN         43%       48%        9%
DEMOCRATS     11%       82%        7%
REPUBLICANS   81%       13%        6%
INDEPENDENTS  45%       45%       10%
18-29         43%       49%        8%
30-44         53%       38%        9%
45-59         51%       42%        7%
60+           45%       48%        7%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

            APPROVE   DISAPPROVE            
ALL           37%       63%

MEN           41%       59%                            
WOMEN         33%       67%                            
DEMOCRATS      5%       95%                            
REPUBLICANS   68%       32%                            
INDEPENDENTS  31%       69%                            
18-29         31%       69%                          
30-44         42%       58%                          
45-59         40%       60%                          
60+           36%       64%                            


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

              VERY                VERY   NO
              FAV    FAV   UNFAV  UNFAV  OPINION  
ALL           22%    29%    21%    18%    10%

MEN           25%    33%    18%    16%     8%
WOMEN         19%    25%    24%    20%    12%
DEMOCRATS      7%    18%    36%    31%     8%
REPUBLICANS   33%    37%    11%    10%     9%
INDEPENDENTS  23%    31%    18%    15%    13%
18-29         17%    23%    25%    22%    13%
30-44         26%    34%    17%    14%     9%
45-59         23%    30%    20%    17%    10%
60+           19%    27%    23%    20%    11%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

              VERY                VERY   NO
              FAV    FAV   UNFAV  UNFAV  OPINION  
ALL           17%    21%    19%    18%    25%

MEN           15%    18%    23%    22%    22%
WOMEN         19%    24%    15%    14%    28%
DEMOCRATS     31%    34%    10%     8%    17%
REPUBLICANS    5%     8%    28%    27%    32%
INDEPENDENTS  19%    24%    17%    16%    24%
18-29         21%    25%    15%    14%    25%
30-44         14%    17%    23%    22%    24%
45-59         15%    19%    21%    19%    26%
60+           18%    22%    18%    17%    25%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton ? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

              VERY                VERY   NO
              FAV    FAV   UNFAV  UNFAV  OPINION  
ALL           15%    21%    24%    23%    17%

MEN           13%    18%    28%    27%    14%
WOMEN         17%    24%    20%    19%    20%
DEMOCRATS     28%    34%    14%    11%    13%
REPUBLICANS    4%     8%    32%    32%    24%
INDEPENDENTS  17%    24%    25%    24%    10%
18-29         17%    23%    21%    19%    20%
30-44         12%    17%    29%    29%    13%
45-59         13%    19%    27%    27%    14%
60+           18%    24%    19%    18%    21%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

            MCCAIN    OBAMA     UNDECIDED
ALL           52%       39%        9%
   

MEN           56%       36%        8%        
WOMEN         48%       42%       10%
DEMOCRATS     15%       79%        6%
REPUBLICANS   83%        6%       11%
OTHER         52%       40%        8%
18-29         45%       44%       11%
30-44         59%       34%        7%
45-59         57%       36%        7%
60+           47%       42%       11%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

            MCCAIN    CLINTON   UNDECIDED
ALL           53%       38%        9%
   

MEN           58%       35%        7%        
WOMEN         48%       41%       11%
DEMOCRATS     16%       79%        5%
REPUBLICANS   84%        5%       11%
OTHER         53%       37%       10%
18-29         46%       42%       10%
30-44         60%       33%        7%
45-59         58%       35%        7%
60+           47%       41%       12%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:57 PM PDT.

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