OR-Sen: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley narrowly defeated Steve Novick yesterday to win the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. This race inspired a lot of passion over the last several months on behalf of both candidates, and I credit both men for running impressive campaigns.
Best to Speaker Merkley as he takes on Republican Sen. Gordon Smith in the fall. There's some very good news on the polling fron; a DSCC poll shows Smith leading Merkley by just three points, 45% to 42%. Better yet, Smith's approvals are abominable; he receives just 29% job approval, with 55% disapproving.
That's a big window of opportunity for Merkley, if the polling is correct.
NC-Sen: Reinforcing all the other North Carolina polling of the last couple weeks, SUSA's latest shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole leading Democrat Kay Hagan by just four points, 50% to 46%.
All the polls can't be wrong; Dole is in a box of trouble this cycle. She knows it, too, as the former NRSC chairwoman is suddenly going to her opponent on bended knee, begging for her to refuse national money for her race.
TX-Sen: Republican Senator John Cornyn, the target of a new VoteVets ad urging him to vote for the 21st Century GI Bill, has lashed out at the veterans' organization, and VoteVets has responded:
In today's edition of Roll Call, Cornyn's spokesman responded to an ad launched by VoteVets.org calling on Cornyn to vote for a new GI Bill by saying, "The anti-war crowd is determined to use our men and women in uniform for their political advantage, even if our national security is jeopardized in the process."
In response, Brandon Friedman, an Iraq and Afghanistan Veteran from Dallas, and Vice Chair of VoteVets.org said, "Senator Cornyn's response to veterans is ignorant, insulting, and beneath his office. The GI Bill has nothing to do with the decision to go to war, or the course in Iraq, nor would it jeopardize security. The GI Bill was a sacred promise enacted by President Roosevelt, and all we are asking for is that America not default on that promise."
Friedman added, "Further, to accuse veterans of using ourselves as a political football is pernicious and absurd. Apparently, veterans do not have the right to ask Senator Cornyn to do the right thing, or else we'll be smeared. At least we now know what Senator Cornyn thinks of those of us who served this nation in combat."
I am really at a loss as to explain how lobbying for the GI Bill endangers our national security.
CO-Sen: kos wrote earlier about the latest Rasmussen polling, which shows Democrat Mark Udall leading his Republican opponent, Bob Schaffer, by six points, 47% to 41%.
Frankly, after Schaffer's recent misadventures (both his "Mt. Macaca moment", and his unpleasant ties to Jack Abramoff and the Northern Marianas scandal, I'd almost hoped for more. But this certainly isn't bad, and things are only going to get worse for Schaffer.
AK-Sen: Kossacks clammyc and thereisnospoon will be interviewing Senate candidate Mark Begich at 5 PM Eastern today on BlogTalkRadio, in the lastest instalment of an excellent series of candidate interviews. If you're able to tune in, please do.
NH-Sen: Jeanne Shaheen's first ad is up:
Blue Hampshire's Dean Barker:
As a positive (re)introduction spot, I feel it hits all those notes it's meant to about reminding us what we had, and by (John Sununu's) absence, what we can do without.
KY-Sen: Bruce Lunsford has won his primary handily over Greg Fischer, and heads into the general election against Mitch McConnell. The most recent round of polling showed McConnell under 50% against Lunsford, leading 48% to 36%. It's going to be an incredibly difficult battle for Lunsford (who I don't like very much to begin with), but hopefully he can make McConnell sweat a little, and keep him from utilizing his legendary fundraising prowess to aid other Republican Senate candidates.
House Races
OR-05: Despite last week's scandal involving allegations of cocaine use, mistresses and abortions (quite a trifecta there for conservatives), Mike Erickson has won his primary in Oregon's 5th, and will face off against Democrat Kurt Schrader in the race to succeed Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley. I'd call this race "lean Dem" at this point.
MO-06: In one of the hottest races in the country, Republican incumbent Sam Graves holds a holds a 10-point lead over Democrat Kay Barnes, 49% to 39%, according to SUSA. The good news is that Graves is under 50%, which leaves a good opening for Barnes here. The DCCC will be deeply invested in this race, so hopefully they can use their tremendous cash advantage to help Barnes close this gap.
CO-04: Despite the solidly Republican bent of this district, surprisingly close races are getting to be a Musgrave Ritual. The internal polls of Democratic candidate Betsy Markey show her leading her Republican opponent, the odious Marilyn Musgrave, by seven points, 43% to 36%.
The best response the Musgrave campaign could give? Their own internals show Musgrave leading 47% to 42%.
Frankly, with nearly six months before election day, I would not be trumpeting a poll that shows me leading an opponent with inferior name recognition by just five points. If I were the incumbent.
But then, Musgrave is maybe not the wisest Rep in DC.
NH-02: Jennifer Horn, candidate for the Republican nomination against freshman Democrat Paul Hodes, sports an impressive new endorsement: Jackie Mason's.
As Blue Hampshire's Dean Barker notes in a must-read piece, this is a tremendous victory for hilarity, if not for civility. This is the man whose endorsement Horn welcomes:
Giuliani Drops Comedian Over Remarks
By DON TERRY
Published: September 28, 1989
Rudolph W. Giuliani said yesterday that the comedian Jackie Mason would no longer have a role in his mayoral campaign, after a newspaper quoted Mr. Mason as making racially charged remarks about blacks and Jews.
...''There is a sick Jewish problem of voting for a black man no matter how unfit he is for the job,'' Mr. Mason said. ''All you have to do is to be black and don't curse the Jews directly and the Jew will vote for a black in a second. Jews are sick with complexes.''
He went on: ''The Jews are constantly giving millions of dollars to the black people. Have you ever heard of a black person giving a quarter to a Jew? I never heard a black person say we have to help the poor Jews.''
Man, you've got to be a real piece of work if Rudy Giuliani kicked you off his campaign twenty years ago. And this is just one of many such statements.
From Dean:
Absolutely, positively, the dumbest decision to trumpet an endorsement I have ever seen, inside or outside of New Hampshire. I've got no words for the magnitude of stoopid needed to think this was a wise campaign decision.
NY-13: The New York Times has a good article on the battle for the nomination to succeed Vito Fossella in this Staten Island-based district:
Shortly after Mr. Fossella announced his decision Tuesday, two Democrats from Staten Island said they were interested in the seat: Councilman Michael E. McMahon, who has represented northern Staten Island since 2002, and Michael Cusick, a state assemblyman who represents an area in the center of the island.
"I am having earnest discussions with the other folks who are interested and the county leaders in Staten Island and Brooklyn," Mr. McMahon said Tuesday. "I’m hopeful that we can come to a decision very quickly. Because of the short time frame, it’s important that we unite around a candidate rather than having a primary fight."
Similarly, Mr. Cusick said that "ultimately, the goal is to win in November" and that "it would be preferable not to have a primary and for the Democrats to work things out."
There is still Mr. Harrison, who ran against Mr. Fossella two years ago and did better than any previous challenger, winning 43 percent of the vote. Despite being overlooked by Democratic leaders in Brooklyn and on Staten Island, Mr. Harrison issued a statement after Mr. Fossella’s decision became public. "I have not been running against Vito Fossella," he said. "I have been running for Congress and I will continue to do so."
On the Republican side, Staten Island DA Daniel Donovan and State Sen. Andrew Lanza are the frontrunners. The excellent NY13 blog has a good breakdown of all the rumored and declared candidates in both parties, and is eminently worth reading.