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Notice all the Press this morning that the new Q-Poll "Swing" State got?  It's got the full splash at Mark "Tool" Halperin's website...

Memo to Mark, MSM and Q-Poll: Obama is the Nominee; OBAMA HAS A DIFFERENT MAP

Hence the shocking part... Obama's Map is becoming reality; Virginia has been under polled and this would "shock" the Halperin's of the world hung up on Clinton's 2004 map

Case In POINT:  VIRGINIA - 13 EV's

Obama: 49% (35%)
McCain: 42% (55%)

Obama/Edwards:   53%
McCain/Huckabee: 41%

The Map has Changed, Electability has been redefined, and there is no Gender Gap in Virginia.

Obama: 48%
McCain: 44%

Obama: 51%
McCain: 40%

Obama: 45%
McCain: 41%

Obama: 79%
McCain: 10%

Obama : 17%
McCain : 81%

Obama is Pulling more Republicans than McCain is pulling Democrats.  

Pennsylvania is Equally Fine

As is Colorado... Obama's Map is Bigger, Better and Badder than ever.

Virginia Blue!

Update: FenderT206 points out that usingthe EV Map, with Obama winning All Kerry States (Minus New Hampshire), Obama is President if he carries Virginia and Colorado (and not even Iowa).  

He gets 270 Exactly, WITHOUT Florida, Ohio, New Mexico or Nevada, all certainly in Play, and his Fringe states like Indiana, North Carolina and Texas.  That's not to say none of those states aren't in contention.  The Landslde is certainly on the table with Barack.  And he'll keep a cash strapped McCain on Defense as it only takes a few flips to win it while McCain has to defend nearly a dozen red states...

Update II More General Polling Commentary:

Earlier this week, I made this statement

After reviewing PA's Polling and the recent North Carolina SUSA Poll that shocks and shows Clinton winning with Obama losing vs. McCain, I'm developing a hypothesis that over time, Clinton voters return to Obama, but that takes a 4-6 week gestation period during which they go through the five stages of grief.  Polling out of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, California, Ohio and Colorado now indicate that Obama is solidifying the party base and Clinton voters... by July, Obama should hit his stride  into the convention.  With a United Democratic Party, this year, Victory is Very Very Probable.

Many below in the comments are still talking about the North Carolina poll that had Obama losing to McCain while Hillary was winning vs. McCain.  A Few Thoughts, that hopefully get comments on at the bottom of the diary:

  1. Polling differently

It's possible that because one poll asks about Hillary while the other never asks About Hillary there is a screening going on where by Hillary voters are hanging up on one poll and not on another. It's also possible that when asked both questions, they give a choice answer, spiking one poll and not another.  

I find it most interesting that when polling for Hillary is removed from the Questioning, Women Voters especially seem to have no problem choosing Barack over McCain.  It's something I'm going to keep an eye on going forward.

  1. Spiteful Hillary voters or Unconvinced GE Voters

There is something important to remember about Primary polls/voters versus General Election polls/voters.  I believe there will be about 40M voters in the Democratic Primary while about 125M voters in the General Election.  Beyond just the dramatic increase in republicans involved, there is just as many passive Democrats and sideline Independents who will wade into the fold.  Right now, if you look at the RCP average of the McCain/Obama and McCain/Clinton Nationwide, we'll see

Obama +4.5 (Losing only Rasmussen)
Clinton +1

However, when you dig into certain polls, North Carolina SUSA for instance, or the Q-Poll out today, or even today's Gallup, case by case Clinton appears stronger.  It's a situation where you will believe what you want to believe.  Do you go by the Topline Averages? Or by the evidence you seek?

One thing is certain.  Obama has worked his way with the 40M or so Democratic Primary Voters (+11 in Gallup Today vs. Clinton) but he's still lagging Clinton by 2% in Gallup head to head vs. McCain.

Here's Gallup's Method

The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from May 19-21, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,251 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

The general election results are based on combined data from May 17-21, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,446 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

In all probability, this may simply be a case of another Name Recognition Deficiency.  There may infact be very few Spiteful Clinton Voters, but equally possible, when you start polling for the General Election, there is just a whole new set of Low-Information General Election voters still not paying attention, who will be targeted by the conventions and fall campaigns.  This is the theory I also like to believe, because in the end, it renders Clinton's current irrational and unforgivable actions in Florida much less important.

Originally posted to Steven R on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:57 AM PDT.

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