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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (7/14-16 results)

Senate

Stevens (R) 44 (45)
Begich (D) 50 (47)

This remains one of our top pickup opportunities. While Begich runs through the state picking up support, Stevens will be in court in Washington DC generating the wrong kind of headlines back home.

The House race looks even better.

At-Large House District

Young (R) 39 (40)
Berkowitz (D) 53 (51)

Parnell (R) 43
Berkowitz (D) 48

The CW was that Parnell would cruise to victory had he pulled off his primary, but this poll suggests that it would've still been an uphill climb for the GOP to retain this seat. As is, this is one of the top pickup candidates for Democrats this cycle. And since Parnell would be Berkowitz likely opponent in 2010, this suggests that the matchup wouldn't be as lopsided as once thought.

As for the presidential, if nothing else, Palin has locked down her state's three electoral votes, with McCain leading 55-38. The last time we polled this state, it was 51-41 McCain. So the Palin effect? None down-ballot, and about seven points at the presidential level. Not too impressive.

Full crosstabs are below the fold.

Update: To be clear, since I wasn't before, Parnell lost his primary challenge to Young. The CW was that had Parnell won, Berkowitz would be toast. This poll states otherwise. This is all relevant because Parnell will be back in 2010 trying to take out freshman incumbent Rep. Ethan Berkowitz.

ALASKA POLL RESULTS - SEPTEMBER 2008

The Research 2000 Alaska Poll was conducted from September 15 through September

17, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  292 (49%)
Women                308 (51%)

Democrats            126 (21%)
Republicans          185 (31%)
Independents/Other   289 (48%)

18-29                107 (18%)
30-44                211 (35%)
45-59                191 (32%)
60+                   91 (15%)

Anchorage            288 (48%)
Central/Other         95 (16%)
Fairbanks/Juneau     217 (36%)


U.S CONGRESS:


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 22%         34%         18%         16%         10%

MEN                 20%         32%         21%         18%          9%
WOMEN               24%         36%         15%         14%         11%

DEMOCRATS           38%         41%          7%          6%          8%
REPUBLICANS          5%         25%         29%         25%         16%
INDEPENDENTS        26%         37%         16%         14%          7%

18-29               27%         39%         11%         10%         13%
30-44               19%         33%         22%         18%          8%
45-59               24%         35%         15%         15%         11%
60+                 18%         29%         23%         22%          8%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Don Young? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 10%         31%         36%         22%          1%

MEN                 12%         36%         32%         19%          1%
WOMEN                8%         26%         40%         25%          1%

DEMOCRATS            3%          6%         55%         35%          1%
REPUBLICANS         18%         52%         20%          9%          1%
INDEPENDENTS         8%         29%         37%         25%          1%

18-29                5%         23%         43%         27%          2%
30-44               12%         34%         34%         19%          1%
45-59               10%         29%         37%         23%          1%
60+                 13%         33%         33%         20%          1%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sean Parnell? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 12%         39%         19%         13%         17%

MEN                 14%         41%         18%         12%         15%
WOMEN               10%         37%         20%         14%         19%

DEMOCRATS            5%         14%         38%         25%         18%
REPUBLICANS         19%         58%          9%          6%          8%
INDEPENDENTS        11%         38%         17%         12%         22%

18-29                5%         36%         22%         16%         21%
30-44               14%         42%         17%         12%         15%
45-59               11%         39%         19%         13%         18%
60+                 16%         41%         18%         10%         15%


QUESTION: If the 2008 election for Congress were held today for whom would you votefor if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz the Democrat and Don Young
the Republican?

                   BERKOWITZ   YOUNG       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 53%         39%          8%

MEN                 48%         45%          7%
WOMEN               58%         33%          9%

DEMOCRATS           87%          6%          7%
REPUBLICANS         19%         75%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        60%         31%          9%

18-29               56%         34%         10%
30-44               51%         43%          6%
45-59               55%         36%          9%
60+                 49%         44%          7%

ANCHORAGE           55%         40%          5%
CENTRAL/OTHER       45%         42%         13%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    54%         36%         10%


QUESTION: If the 2008 election for Congress were held today for whom would you votefor if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz the Democrat and Sean Parnell the Republican?

                   BERKOWITZ   PARNELL     UNDECIDED  

ALL                 48%         43%          9%

MEN                 42%         49%          9%
WOMEN               54%         37%          9%

DEMOCRATS           86%          5%          9%
REPUBLICANS         15%         79%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        53%         36%         11%

18-29               52%         38%         10%
30-44               46%         45%          9%
45-59               47%         44%          9%
60+                 44%         48%          8%

ANCHORAGE           48%         43%          9%
CENTRAL/OTHER       43%         48%          9%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    50%         42%          8%

U.S. SENATE:


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 22%         34%         19%         13%         12%

MEN                 19%         31%         22%         15%         13%
WOMEN               25%         37%         16%         11%         11%

DEMOCRATS           38%         48%          8%          4%          2%
REPUBLICANS          8%         21%         31%         23%         17%
INDEPENDENTS        24%         36%         16%         11%         13%

18-29               28%         38%         16%          8%         10%
30-44               20%         33%         21%         15%         11%
45-59               24%         35%         18%         10%         13%
60+                 17%         30%         22%         20%         11%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 10%         30%         34%         22%          4%

MEN                 13%         34%         30%         20%          3%
WOMEN                7%         26%         38%         24%          5%

DEMOCRATS            4%         14%         51%         31%         -
REPUBLICANS         17%         45%         18%         13%          7%
INDEPENDENTS         8%         28%         37%         24%          3%

18-29                6%         23%         41%         27%          3%
30-44               12%         33%         32%         18%          5%
45-59                8%         27%         35%         26%          4%
60+                 13%         36%         30%         17%          4%


QUESTION: If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich the Democrat and Ted Stevens the Republican?

                   BEGICH      STEVENS     UNDECIDED  

ALL                 50%         44%          6%

MEN                 46%         49%          5%
WOMEN               54%         39%          7%

DEMOCRATS           87%          6%          7%
REPUBLICANS         14%         82%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        57%         36%          7%

18-29               56%         37%          7%
30-44               46%         46%          8%
45-59               52%         44%          4%
60+                 46%         48%          6%

ANCHORAGE           52%         41%          7%
CENTRAL/OTHER       42%         53%          5%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    51%         43%          6%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 55%         38%          2%          5%

MEN                 59%         34%          3%          4%
WOMEN               51%         42%          1%          6%

DEMOCRATS           12%         84%          1%          3%
REPUBLICANS         86%          7%          1%          6%
OTHER               54%         38%          3%          5%

18-29               48%         47%          1%          4%
30-44               60%         30%          3%          7%
45-59               54%         43%          2%          1%
60+                 58%         31%          2%          9%

ANCHORAGE           55%         37%          2%          6%
CENTRAL/OTHER       58%         35%          1%          6%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    54%         41%          2%          3%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 05:00 PM PDT.

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