Senate Races:
NH-Sen: Rasmussen's latest poll shows Jeanne Shaheen maintaining her eight-point lead over Republican incumbent John Sununu. This race has sat comfortably in the top tier of Democratic pickup opportunities since Shaheen declared her candidacy, and it looks as though that is where it will stay. The New Hampshire race still looks like the strongest Senate challenge to a Republican incumbent this cycle.
NC-Sen: On the heels of the latest Research 2000 poll showing Elizabeth Dole with weak numbers versus Democrats Kay Hagan and Jim Neal (leading Hagan by seven points and Neal by 10), SurveyUSA has polled the Democratic primary race.
With just days to go before the May 6 primary, Hagan now holds a substantial lead over Neal, 38% to 17%. 35% of voters are still undecided, and Neal will have to take a large majority of those undecideds if he is to be the nominee.
OR-Sen: SUSA has polled this race as well, and in contrast to the North Carolina poll, this one shows the race tightening between Democrats Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley.
On the heels of Merkley's recent ad campaign, SUSA shows the race deadlocked, with Novick holding a statistically insignificant two-point advantage over Merkley. Last month, Novick led Merkley by 11 points.
At this point, I wouldn't even hazard a guess as to who is favored.
House Races:
IN-05, IN-07: Primary day in Indiana will also see three competitive races downticket. One is the Republican challenge to nutter Dan Burton in Indiana's 5th, one is the three-headed Democratic challenge to incumbent Andre Carson in IN-07, and one is the Democratic primary for Governor between Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger, which we'll look at in a separate post.
Burton has held his seat since 1982, but has recently come under fire for absenteeism (he apparently prefers taking golf trips to actually casting votes in Congress), and faces his strongest primary challenge in years from fellow Republican John McGoff. McGoff has established a cute little website called "Where's Dan Burton?" to underscore this fact. His attacks must be getting some traction, because Burton has spent $1.2 million to defend his House seat.
In the Seventh District, Andre Carson, who won a March special election to succeed his late grandmother Julia Carson, faces three Democratic opponents in his primary; state Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays, and former State Health Commissioner Woody Myers.
As the incumbent, Carson is certainly at an advantage, especially as he managed to fend off a surprisingly strong challenge from Republican Jon Elrod in winning his special election by 11 points. Still, with four serious candidates running, it's difficult to say what will happen, especially given the race's racial dynamics:
Carson hopes his brief experience in Washington sets him apart from his seven challengers.
He and two of those challengers — former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers and state Rep. Carolene Mays — are black, and some community leaders worry the crowded field will split the black vote. That could give state Rep. David Orentlicher, who is white, an advantage in the district, which is about two-thirds white.
IL-11: Republicans had been without a candidate in this district after the NRCC's favored recruit, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, dropped out of this open-seat race. They have apparently finally found a challenger to Democrat Debbie Halvorson, in the person of millionaire Marty Ozinga.
Ozinga has plenty of personal funds and has raised over $400,000 for the race so far, but he's deep in the hole against Halvorson, the Illinois Senate Majority leader, who has over $673,000 on hand and has already made the DCCC's Red To Blue List. IL-11 is a swing district with a PVI of R+1.1, so in a Democratic year, I like Halvorson's chances.
-CQ runs down the House races in the Midwest, and handicaps them here:
No Clear Favorite
KS-02 Boyda (D)
MN-03 Ramstad* (R)
OH-15 Pryce* (R)
OH-16 Regula* (R)
Leans Democratic
IL-08 Bean (D)
IL-14 Foster (D)
IN-07 Carson (D)
IN-09 Hill (D)
MN-01 Walz (D)
WI-08 Kagen (D)
Leans Republican
IL-10 Kirk (R)
MI-07 Walberg (R)
MI-09 Knollenberg (R)
MO-06 Graves (R)
MO-09 Hulshof* (R)
OH-01 Chabot (R)
OH-02 Schmidt (R)
Democrat Favored
IL-11 Weller* (R)
IN-02 Donnelly (D)
IN-08 Ellsworth (D)
KS-03 Moore (D)
OH-18 Space (D)
Republican Favored
IL-06 Roskam (R)
IL-18 LaHood* (R)
MN-06 Bachmann (R)
OH-14 LaTourette (R)
* denotes retiring incumbent
It's certainly inspiring to note the predominance of Republican seats on this list, particularly in the most competitive categories. For me, though, the biggest pleasant surprise is the listing of Joe Donnelly, Brad Ellsworth and Zack Space in the "Democrat Favored" categories.
Donnelly, Ellsworth and Space all represent Republican-leaning districts. The Indiana representatives hail from a state which has been reliably Republican in presidential election years, and has not given its electoral votes to a Democrat since 1964. These are precisely the kind of districts that a more vibrant and relevant Republican Party would have at the top of its target list. Nevertheless, at least by CQ's analysis, our Democratic incumbents are relatively safe.
MS-01: So the NRCC has responded to the $700,000 bombshell the DCCC dropped in MS-01...by throwing just under eight thousand whole dollars into the race. Meanwhile, the DCCC topped their previous investments with an additional $40,000.
The NRCC previously spent quite a bit here, so maybe they feel like they've done enough...but they better be damn sure if they're going to risk losing an R+10 district. I mean, that can't be good for morale.