Yesterday's events in Tegucigalpa were very critical to the whole resolution of the post-coup crisis. There are three basic reasons:
- Micheletti put himself in a bad position by first saying Zelaya was welcome to Honduras, but that he would be arrested upon arrival and then, later on, categorically denying him entry. That was clearly unconstitutional and moreover, highly thuggish. The fact that his forces apparently were responsible for 2 deaths, one a ten year old child, will not play out well. That they apparently had real bullets in their guns was insane.
- That stupid press conference was silly and a waste of time. These guys looked and sounded bad. Then they let out that they were willing to sit down with the OAS, even before Zelaya had arrived. The "Nicaragua is psychologally invading us" line was simply loopy.
- Zelaya still seems to me a bit of a wild card, and today was definitely a stunt, but he played it well, conversing with and updating news outlets during the flight, and getting in the cockpit and speaking to Telesur during the attempt at landing was shrewd and showed strength. His words during those five minutes were smart and to an extent, eloquent.
Going forward this week, there are a few things things to focus on:
- If it is true that the De Facto Government is losing some support from Big Business, including Flores Facusse and Ricardo Maduro, I see momentum going quickly against the interim Government.
- Zelaya's position is a lot stronger than just a few days ago. The OAS sanction, the clumsiness of the De Facto Government helped, for sure, as well as his own shrewdness and, to be honest, courage. How does he capitilize on this?
- There is still the matter of the Catholic Church, which despite Cardinal Rodriguez's strongly pro-coup words on Saturday, still seems to be split internally.
- There were reports that the scuffle between the army and marchers on the south side of the airport gave the Police pause and that indeed the Chief of Police withdrew from the area. Whether this is indicitive of a nascent split, as Al seems to believe, or simply them wanting to get out of there and avoid the situation, we'll have to see. Reports all afternoon did seem to indicate that the police was in no way eager to crack down.
- Finally, although not as important as the above, is does the Obama aAdministration do about possibly withdrawing financing. If this is a military coup, and it sure looked that way yesterday, then we will to do so. Will Obama go that route?
Note - Yesterday's events are here.
Update 6:57 -Agence France Press estimated the crowd size at 30,000. Knowing the steets there in front of the airport, there is no way 500,000 people gathered there, as had initially been reported.
Update 7:20 - Secretary General of the UN, Ban Ki-moon, came out again this morning against the coup, saying that "when a a leader has been elected by a constituitonal process, their authority and mandate as a leader should be protected." He went on to ask all parties to find a constitutionally viable solution.
Update 8:08 - Litho in the comments brings up something I hadn't seen yet regarding the oft-cited 30% approval rating for Zelaya. According to the AP"latest February CID-Gallup showed it had rebounded to 53 percent, drawing support from farm, labor and student groups." I've only been able to find a survey from June 2008
that finds a 46-42 favorable number. Having said all this, I don't think Zelaya's popularity, or lack thereof, is really germane. Litho explains why.
Update 9:05 - BBC is reporting only one death, Isis Obed Murillo Mensías, a 19 year old boy from the province of Olancho. Apparently, he was struck in the back as he was trying to move away the disturbance on the south side of the airport.
Update 9:56 - Reports are that Zelaya has flown from Managua to San Salvador this morning. I still don't know what that was all about. Speaking of flights, seems international service to Toncontin will return Thursday.
Update 10:08 - World Bank to pause lending to Honduras. World Bank President Robert Zoellick said the country’s allocation for the next fiscal year was around $80 million.
Note - this is from June 30, Reuters. Thanks Nell for the catch.
Note - Betson08 brings up a point that Al had made somewhere yesterday, namely that the 105th Batallion on the north coast (La ceiba) didn't support the De Facto Government. We'll see what happpens..
Update 11:28 - Interesting note: In the later Inter-American Committee Human Rights Press Release, under the section: The following persons are now included in precautionary measures 196-09 is included this: 2. Alan McDonald, cartoonist; According to information received by the Commission, he and his 17-month-old daughter were detained after soldiers allegedly ransacked his house and destroyed his cartoons. More info on Alan is here.
Update 11:59 - On the diplomatic front, representantives of the new government are off to Washington to start talks with the OAS. Guillermo Pérez Cadalso, Leónidas Rosa Bautista and Felícito Ávilaw were said to be part of the group. Also, Roberto Flores Bermúdez, Honduran Ambassador confirms that the OAS had a "positive response" to the President of the Supreme Court Jorge Rivera's call for dialogue. Further, Nobel Prize winner and Ciosta Rican President, Óscar Arias, said that he is disposed to serve as mediator for any talks. He stated that he has been in contact with various people in Honduras, including an unnamed ex-president. However, as Al notes, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot to discuss, what with Canciller Ortez saying "There is only one thing that is not negotiable: the return of ex-president Zelaya."
Note - Michael Binyon at Timesonline has interesting analysis of yesterday's events. His point about the violence's effect of loosening support the coup among the Honduran society and the army itself is fairly common sense, but bears repeating.
Note - Twitterer Hondurasenlucha has a nice collection of photos from yesterday.
Update 12:51 - I've talked about before, but the Bishop of the Diocese Copán, Luis Alfonso Santos sent out a press release this morning, saying in part "As the responsible party of the Catholic Church in Western Honduras, we repudiate the substance, style and form with which the new Executive has imposed itself." From what I've heard the Western Diocese is more progressive than the Archdiocese as a whole, so..
Update 1:12 - Marches continue today. AP reports 2,000 peaceful protesters arrived at the Casa Presidencial Also regarding the new curfew of 6:30, I'm not sure if it's going to continue or if was simply a one off to disband and arrest protesters (800, says Telesur) yesterday, but locking down a country at 6:30 pm is not conducive to econimic activity, to say the least.
Update 1:22 - Ap says that Zelaya to meet with Sec. of State Hilary Clinton this week. Zelaya is expected in Washington on Tuesday. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly also went out to say "We deplore the use of force against demonstrators in Tegucigalpa in recent days, and we once again call upon the de facto regime and all actors in Honduras to refrain from all acts of violence, and seek a peaceful, constitutional and lasting solution to the serious divisions in that country through dialogue."
Update 3:03 - Andres Martinez at Bloomberg reports that Zelaya plans to return to the country on July 8. According to Luis Roland Valenzuela, Zelaya's Housing Minister, "Zelaya won’t come back through regular entry points." Zelaya is promising a press conference after his meeting with Sec. of State Hilary Clinton tomorrow.
Note - At the top, I mentioned how I thought that fact that soldiers had live ammunition was insane. Well, National Commission on Human Rights Director Ramón Custodio is saying that it was NOT the military that killed the young man from Olancho, Isis Oved Murillo, and according to his information, the Army used only rubber bullets Yesterday. Now, I don't know much about this sort of this, but in theset of images I pointed out earlier, there are a couple of images of protesters holding bullets in their hands. Are these rubber bullet casings?
Note - In the comments section at his blog, Greg Weeks brings up something I've seen elsewhere over the last few days, namely that big business, like Eduardo Facusse, is thinking it can stick it out until November or at latest, January, when supposedly a duly elected government will come in. However, what if that's not true and the new government does NOT get the international seal of approval and sanctions continue? How deep in the hole will Honduras be then? That seems like a big gamble on their part.
Update 4:03 - To follow up on the use of force yesterday, Andrés Pavón of the Honduran Human Rights Commission said that the bullets that killed the young man yesterday came from sharpshooters stationed within the confines of the airfield. "wW took observations in the area and confirmed that there were indeed M-16 Shells. We will present this evidence tomorrow in the Ministerio Publico." Interestingly, Pavon relates that "the dead boy's father met with the Committee of Disappeared in Honduras (COFADE) and that Micheletti himself went to talk with them to give a kind of compensation and pay the funeral charges". I would like some more info about that last part; even in Spanish, it sounds kind of murky..
Update 4:22 - Pepe Lobo, the man Zelaya beat out in 2006 for the Presidency, and President of Partido Nacional, is saying he is in favor of Mel's return. Information seems sketchy in this article, hopefully they'll follow it up a bit. I'm not sure if that's not a bit of maneuvering for his own party, but..
Update 4:33 - Seems as if yesterday's 6:30 curfew was indeed a one-off, and that, for now, it's 10:00 PM to 5:00 AM.
Note - One thing from this morning I wanted to touch on before finishing for today is the matter of the Cuarta Urna Referendum itself. I had assumed that there was not a great deal of support for a Yes vote, but from the same AP report there's this, "As recently as March, three-fourths of Hondurans supported some form of direct public vote to modify aspects of their government."
Now, that sounds vague, and there's no mention of what the nature of the poll was, but this, as well as other anecdotal evidence seem to say that the referendum would have done well, especially in the rural areas. BTW, Poliblogger's got the scoop on the actual referendum ballot.
Day's Summary -
Two things happened today that I think are of note:
- Zelaya will meet with Sec. of State Clinton directly. I don't know if this is going to occur tomorrow, but the fact that Zelaya is hinting at a July 8 return seems to suggest so. We'll know alot more about what the Obama Administration thinks following that.
- Maybe it's just me, but I thought that Pepe Lobo coming out for Zelaya's restoration was indeed important. Now, if he's just trying to position his party for the next election, figuring that if Mel carries out his term the end, the Liberal party will be so exhausted that it couldn't put up either a candidate or a fight, then that's not such a big deal. But if he's sincere, then it is. Especially because a Nationalista win, while not guaranteed, seems about as likely as the Democratic victories here the past November.
Note - Speaking of November, let's suppose that Zelaya never is restored and the Current Interim Government (that is still Partido Liberal after all) stays all the way to the elections. If the Liberal party somehow wins, after all this, I can't see the International Community viewing that as a totally legit, above board win. That would seem to lead to the scenario above, where even after the elections, International Sanctions are not removed, and Honduras is way in the hole, economy-wise.