A few months ago, I declared that former speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio would win his insurgent US Senate primary against Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. Watching the race unfold early, I saw many parallels to our own efforts in Connecticut in 2006, down to a picture of "the kiss" -- this time with Crist and Obama.
My prognosticating powers seemed to take a hit after the Q2 fundraising numbers came out. Rubio raised a pitiful $340,000 April through June 2009. Crist, on the other hand, raised a mind-boggling and national-best $4.3 million. It seemed like it was race over, even if much of the conservative movement was lining up behind Rubio.
However, the third quarter has been kinder to Rubio.
U.S. Senate candidate Marco Rubio said Tuesday he raised nearly $1 million in the past three months to challenge Charlie Crist for the Republican nomination, turning what looked like a cakewalk for the popular incumbent governor into a potentially competitive race.
In the previous fundraising quarter, Crist's $4.3 million dwarfed the $340,000 raised by Rubio. But the former leader of the Florida House from Miami gained momentum, winning 11 small, unofficial polls of county Republican clubs across the state and garnering raves in conservative media nationwide.
"The Rubio campaign has now proven it's a legitimate effort for the nomination,'' said John Weaver, a national GOP strategist who worked for former presidential nominee John McCain. "While the governor obviously is the front-runner, it is no longer far-fetched to see how Marco Rubio wins this race.''
Crist has not announced his latest fundraising milestone but is expected to raise around $2 million.
Crist will easily raise far more money than Rubio, but that's not important. Rubio needs enough to get his message out, and with the help of the teabaggger grassroots, Rubio can make his money stretch much further than the establishment-backed Crist. And while hitting that $1 million mark is actually not that impressive -- Florida is a huge and expensive state to compete in statewide -- it should provide momentum for the coming quarters. Indeed, Rubio's success at winning local straw polls of his party's most committed activists shows that he's already performing strongly with those who will provide the boots on the ground. And when one of your campaign donors is Karl Rove, you discount Rubio at your own peril.
Unfortunately, the Democratic side looks weak, so a Rubio primary victory, at this point, likely means that a bona fide teabagger would sit in the Senate. Given this reality, it would clearly be better for our side if Crist prevailed. But moderate Republicans who sometimes work with Democrats (like Crist did during the stimulus debate) don't fare well in GOP primaries.
Meanwhile, Illinois developer Patrick Hughes hopes to become the Marco Rubio of the Land of Lincoln.
“I’m kind of like the Marco Rubio of Illinois,” Hughes said Tuesday.
With the establishment firmly behind Rep. Mark Kirk, grassroots conservatives are itching for an alternative to back. Kirk has long represented a Democratic-leaning district just north of Chicago, and his voting record lacks the sort of ideological purity to pass muster with the wingnut base. Kirk has already renounced his vote for cap and trade legislation, and is trying hard to stay on the right side of the ideological divide. Indeed, Kirk refused to say whether he supported Chicago's bid for the 2016 Olympic games before the announcement, knowing that backing the bid (popular in Illinois, obviously) would anger the nuts in his party.
While a couple of right-wing conservatives have entered the race, it appears that little-known developer Patrick Hughes has the early line on becoming the anti-Kirk. He will announce $380,000 raised in the quarter, after only a month in the race. Sure, most of that is his own money, but even better, he has the endorsement of Mike Ditka. Yeah, it's stupid, but Ditka is a minor-deity in Illinois. Illinois doesn't forget those who bring championships to Chicago. And again, with a party base on the warpath against anyone who has ever shown an inkling of support for Obama, Kirk will be in serious trouble if Hughes gains traction.
Unlike Florida, the Democratic side in Illinois boasts at least two strong candidates. The GOP's best chance of picking up this seat will be Kirk, and even that will be a tough slog in Obama's home state. Hughes would stand little chance.