In 2008, 90% of John McCain's votes came from white voters. However, while the Republican relied primarily on white voters, only 55% of them voted for him.
Coincidentally, 55% is also the percent of babies born in the US in 2008 that were non-Hispanic white, according to Census estimates.
That just doesn't bode well for Republicans.
Here's how it looks:
Click to enlarge.
On the left, results from the 2008 exit polls. On the right, the decreasing share of the US population that is non-Hispanic white. Explanations below the fold.
Ten Second Summary
Not only are non-whites a growing share of the electorate and highly likely to vote for Democrats, but both non-whites and whites are increasingly likely to vote for Democrats. Republicans are in deep doo-doo. This idea has been gaining traction over the past year, but it cannot be repeated enough.
Couldn't Win Without...
We start with the 2008 results, at left above. It shows a more diverse group of voters for Obama than for McCain. Only 60% of Obama's voters were white, compared to 90% for McCain.
Here's some maps by race/ethnicity of the exit poll results:
Click to enlarge. See note on color. Only states with 51% or more are counted in EV totals.
Note that at the extreme ends of support, purple is used for the most Republican and green is used for the most Democratic support. We see that the support among whites varied dramatically. The lowest support for Obama was in AL, MS, and LA, hands down. Low (but still substantial) support of around 20-30% of white voters was found in adjacent areas of the South and NE, ID, WY, & UT. How well Obama did among whites is strongly related to (but not necessarily caused by) the proportions of whites who are evangelical and born-again Christians in many of these states.
There's only a little variation across the country in support among African-Americans. There's more variation among Latino voters, with the highest support for McCain in Arizona, his home state, and Florida, which has a large Cuban-American population. All non-white voters together show a predictable pattern based on demographics, with Obama's strongest base of support among non-whites also in the South. (Don't worry about Wyoming; it's probably just a small sample size turning it pink.)
Trends - Double Trouble
Not only are non-whites strongly Democratic, but there is a significant trend towards the Democratic candidate over the last few decades among African Americans and Asian Americans. There would actually be a statistically significant trend among whites, too, if we ignore the 1976 election. Added together, there is also a significant trend in the percent vote for Democrats among all races (right, below).
Click to enlarge.
The graph on the right starts with the first election after the Voting Rights Act was passed. Carter's peak in 1976 could be seen as a last gasp of a disintegrating economic coalition, some of whom were willing to vote for a Southern Democrat but no other, in part because of the Republican Southern Strategy, but there's also certainly the aftermath of Watergate tied up in there too and probably a few other factors as well. A cursory glance at individual states shows that the Carter peak can be seen in just about all states, but is greatly enhanced in Southern states. The general increasing trend is also not present in every state. A few examples can be seen here. And finally, don't forget we've got third parties to deal with here too, although apportioning their votes according to exit poll preferences still leaves us with a general trend in the Democratic direction.
Overall, Democrats have been improving at the presidential level at about one percentage point per cycle, on average. About half of that comes from increasing support from both non-whites and whites. To see this effect, we can calculate the performance of Democratic candidates over the past several decades if we assume the demographics of each election’s voters were the same as in 2008. We see a steadily increasing trend (with the exception of Carter):
Click to enlarge.
Trends Upon Trends
The other half of the Democratic improvement comes from increasing numbers of non-white voters, in part due to immigration trends, seen here. If Obama had run for president with a 1988 electorate, and done just as well among all racial categories as he did in 2008, he would only have won just over 49% of the vote (depending on turnout), because the 1988 electorate was more white. Again, we can calculate the performance of Democratic candidates of the past, this time assuming they performed as well among demographic groups as Obama did. And again, we see a steadily increasing trend, this time due to the changing composition of the electorate:
Click to enlarge.
Non-whites are making up more and more of the electorate as time goes on, a phenomenon which first came to my attention in a political way via Ruy Teixeira; Chris Bowers among others has emphasized this as well. In 1980, whites were 89% of the electorate. In 2008, they made up 74% of the electorate. Also in 2008, only 59% of 18-year olds were non-Hispanic white, and (as mentioned above) only 55% of newborns. To return to the graph from the introduction:
Click to enlarge.
The black line shows actual census data from 2000. The red dashed line continuing on shows projected data for newborns for the next few years. The other two lines show the effect of immigration - not all immigrants, however, will be able to vote. The lines are all pointing in one direction: Republican heartburn.
The vertical dashed line marks 1990 - these people were eligible to vote (if citizens) for the first time in the 2008 election.
Again, McCain's supporters were 90% white. In a country not too far down the road where only half the voters are white, there will be no hope for the current Republican party if almost all Republican support continues to come from whites. Indeed, Republicans only represent 13% of congressional districts with populations that are less than 60% non-Hispanic white.
The strategists in the Republican party do seem to recognize this, and there's a good argument that many minorities who currently vote Democratic agree with Republicans on some hot-button issues such as gay marriage and abortion. All the Republicans would have to do is minimize the Real-Americans-Are-Just-Like-the-Cleavers tendencies of their white voting base, while at the same time showing that minorities are welcome in their party. Hint: having Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh as the de facto leaders of the GOP doesn't help. Neither does tokenism, or calling Justice Sotomayor racist. In fact, it results in even less favorable views of Republicans among minorities - less than 5% favorability as of this writing.
Ding, Dong, the ... Uh Oh.
This is not to argue Democratic complacency. While it's safe to predict that the country will grow less white, previous political trends can be interrupted. And, even if previous trends do continue, trends allow for year-to-year ups and downs. If Obama loses the White House in 2012 with 49% of the vote, this would still be consistent with the trends of the last 30 years.
Every year it gets harder for Republicans in their current incarnation to win elections, because their demographic base is shrinking. But not, obviously, impossible.
Up Next
This is all very interesting, but the categories are very broad. Lumping a diverse crowd such as Latino voters all together? We can do better than that - and we will, starting tomorrow.
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This diary is the third in a series taking a close look at the 2008 electorate and exploring three themes: diversity within demographics, progressive feedback loops, and demographic change.
Tomorrow: The African American Electorate: We Are Not All of Us Alike - even one of the most Democratic voting blocs in the country is not uniform
Cross posted at Open Left.
Diaries in this series (updated list):
Looking Back
Alternate History
Why Republicans Should Be Really Scared
African-Americans – We Are Not All of Us Alike
East and South Asian Americans – Diverse and Growing
West Asian Americans – Rapid Change
Native Americans – Increasing Participation
Islander Americans – In Need of More Representation
Native Alaskans – An Economic Factor?
Latino Electorate – Increasing Influence
European-Americans – Tribal Politics Persist
“Americans” – You Might Be Surprised
Appalachia – Surprisingly Democratic
Why Republicans Should Be Really, Really Scared
Why Republicans Should Be Really, Really, Really Scared
A Few More Tidbits
Related 2008 electorate diaries:
Maps: Blue America and the Changing Electorate
Maps: Obama and White Evangelicals