Here's a picture of Republicans shooting themselves in the foot:
Click to enlarge.
This shows the dramatic change in support from the Arabic-speaking community in Dearborn, Michigan. In 2000, Bush won with around 70%; in 2008, the community voted nearly 100% for Obama. I found no other community with change this stunning. This is what happens when you demonize a group of people: they stop voting for you. Quickly.
Of course, for those of you who read the previous diaries in this series, you know what I'm going to say next: we are not all of us alike. The Arab-American vote is not as monolithic nationwide as it is in Dearborn. We'll also explore communities with ties to other parts of Western and Central Asia below the fold.
Ten Second Summary
Change can happen fast, politically speaking. Previous trends are not guaranteed to continue, and can reverse themselves. There is also an easy lesson to learn here that hopefully most Democrats didn't need in the first place: avoid demonization. And, finally - of course - those with West Asian ancestry are a diverse bunch.
The Western Asian Electorate
I've defined Western Asia in a very broad way here. Immigration data are only available for a few countries, but show a growing amount of immigration like most non-European countries, with a peak of Turkish immigration around 100 years ago. Electoral preferences - some with very large errors indeed - are shown below.
Click to enlarge.
Michigan and Beyond - Arab Americans
As it turns out we have some nationwide polling commissioned by the Arab American Institute to help clarify things. A Zogby poll of about 500 was completed by phone in October 2008, using a list of Arabic surnames. Nationally, support for Obama was around two-thirds of those who expressed a preference. Support for Obama among Catholics and Protestant/Orthodox Christians was somewhat less, and support among Muslims was near 100%. Comparing to the 2000 Zogby poll, the most dramatic changes were among Muslims. Asked what the most important issue was in 2008, Jobs/Economy came in first (79%).
This poll also had data on party affiliation going back to 1996, shown here:
Click to enlarge.
Nationwide, the trend is not as dramatic as we saw in Dearborn, but significant nonetheless. Dearborn, I should note, has a large population of Arab Americans who are recent immigrants, and more likely to be Muslim, along with an older, more established Lebanese Christian community.
Michigan Again - Chaldean Community
Using the census category Assyrian/Chaldean/Syriac, a Catholic ethnic group that makes up 10% of the Iraqi population, we get stronger numbers (60-100%) for Obama in Chaldean Town, in Detroit, but weaker numbers in the suburbs further to the north (30-50%). As you can tell from the numbers, I'm pretty uncertain about these communities. However, there's some key differences. More established communities (in the wealthier suburbs) can be traced back to Chaldean-speaking immigrants from rural areas nearly 100 years ago, whereas Chaldean Town has more recent immigrants, who are more urban, educated, speak Arabic, and may have stronger ties to Iraq. Unhappiness with the Iraq war may have been an important factor for those who did support Obama - indicating, once again, self-inflicting injury on the part of the Republican party.
That Foot's Getting Sore - Armenians in Los Angeles
To continue with the theme, another shot in the foot came with respect to the Armenian-American community. Apparently the community used to support Republicans but this year the records of Obama and Biden on the Armenian genocide greatly helped them among Armenian American voters, while McCain had a bit of a 'problem'. In Los Angeles, I estimate Obama had 75-90% of their votes. Pre-election polling (methodology unavailable) had support at 80-85%. Obama's popularity in this community may be slipping recently though, as the anniversary of the Armenian genocide passed without what some believed to be adequate recognition.
Those Feet Are Kind of Obliterated Now - Iranians in Los Angeles
So how does a politician best win the support of Iranian Americans? A little music, that's all it takes. Yeah. It turns out 13% of Californian Iranians think the US should bomb Iran and 7% nationwide favored military action. It should come as no surprise, then, that Iranian-Americans also turned from a solid Republican voting bloc to one with a Democratic edge nationwide. In Los Angeles, I estimate the vote was split, but Los Angeles is apparently home to a more Republican community. The surveys linked to above showed a registration edge of 42% Democratic to 23% Republican in California, and 47% Democratic and 12% Republican nationwide. And while we're on the topic I'd like to point out the religious diversity in the Iranian-American community in California: 35% Muslim, 15% Jewish, 13% Christian, 4% Bahai, and 4% Zoroastrian.
It Takes Talent
This part of Asia is full of ancient enmities exacerbated by The Great Game, stirred up by colonialism, and brought to a boil by the Cold War. It is simply astounding that Republicans have been able to take their relationship with several different communities who have ties to this region and alienate so many, so well, so quickly.
The theme of this diary is that political preferences can change quickly and dramatically. As it happens, of the four groups from Western Asia discussed so far, Arab-Americans showed monumental changes and the rest showed large change based on anecdotes of previous voting behavior. I also included two more groups of recent immigrants found in New York with historical ties to the region - Bukharian Jews and Eastern European Jews (mainly Russian and Ukrainian) - and Americans living in Israel. All three groups showed low support for Obama; for Eastern Europeans, this support is little changed from 2004. So not all communities with ties to this region behaved in the same way - something which should not surprise any reader of this series.
Here's the Elephant
We can't forget Israel and Palestine while we're here. But we do know that only a paltry 5% of Arab-Americans did not vote for Gore (mainly voting for Nader instead) because of the presence of Lieberman on the ticket. Meanwhile, despite Obama being a secret Muslim, Jewish support of Obama does not seem to have changed much from that of Kerry (more on this later). Finally, when asked to name the two most important issues in the 2008 election, less than 1% of Arab Americans mentioned Palestine. Only 8% of Jews said Israel. So, thankfully, perhaps we can forget Israel and Palestine for the purposes of this diary at least.
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This diary is the sixth in a series taking a close look at the 2008 electorate and exploring three themes: diversity within demographics, progressive feedback loops, and demographic change.
Tomorrow: The Native American Electorate: Increasing Participation
Cross posted at Open Left.
Diaries in this series (updated list):
Looking Back
Alternate History
Why Republicans Should Be Really Scared
African-Americans – We Are Not All of Us Alike
East and South Asian Americans – Diverse and Growing
West Asian Americans – Rapid Change
Native Americans – Increasing Participation
Islander Americans – In Need of More Representation
Native Alaskans – An Economic Factor?
Latino Electorate – Increasing Influence
European-Americans – Tribal Politics Persist
“Americans” – You Might Be Surprised
Appalachia – Surprisingly Democratic
Why Republicans Should Be Really, Really Scared
Why Republicans Should Be Really, Really, Really Scared
A Few More Tidbits
Related 2008 electorate diaries:
Maps: Blue America and the Changing Electorate
Maps: Obama and White Evangelicals