Yesterday I posted a diary on the June 12th Presidential Election in Iran. I listed six potential candidates of the many who registered to be on the ballot. I am going to re-post the diary today with the four approved candidates noted.
As an introduction, take a look at a summary chart of the political power structure in Iran:
(Source of chart: National Democratic Institute's Iran Election Bulletin)
The power structure established in the two years after the 1979 Revolution certainly entrenches power in the clergy, and insures that Iran will continue as the Islamic Republic for some time to come. However, it remains important to note that while a great deal of power is concentrated in the Supreme Leader; the Guardian Council and the role of elections allow for diverse opinions within a certain range. Moreover, with a very young population (over 50% born after the Revolution) Public Opinion cannot be ignored. The Presidential and Parliamentary (Majlis) elections provide for some expression of Public Opinion. The Presidential Elections occur every four years (97, 01, 05, 09) and the Majlis Elections have taken place in 00, 04 and 08. The upcoming Presidential election will occur on June 12th, however, with the current field of candidates it is unlikely that one will attain a 50% majority to win outright in the first round. In the event that no candidate achieves 50% then the decision goes to a runoff election on June 19th between the top two candidates from June 12th. In order to run, candidates had to register by May 9th, and the Guardian Council will announce the approved candidates tomorrow May 20th. In the last election there were eight approved candidates, and Ahmadinejad won in the second round election. The following are candidates that are likely to be approved and are most likely to be among the top two finishers on June 12th:
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad APPROVED
Incumbent president who ran on a populist platform in 2005 promising to distribute oil profits to the poor. While the West (and the US) knows him primarily for his outrageous comments about Israel and to a lesser degree the US, there remain many of the underclasses in Iran that still support his egalitarian domestic policies. He defeated Rafsanjani largely because of the accuracy of the "corruption" charge against him and many mullahs like him. Rafsanjani and his family have become quite wealthy. Although it is not an entirely accurate historical example for a few reasons, one could equate Rafsanjani with Danton. He lead the Indulgents who wished to lighten up on the extremes of the French Revolution. Meanwhile think of Ahmadinejad as Robespierre--the Revolutionary purist who sought egalitarianism at any cost. The major difference remains that Rafsanjani never had to fear for his head.
Mohsen Rezai APPROVED
Rezai came into the race in late April, and as a conservative, his candidacy shows a profound lack of support for Ahmadinejad among the Conservative elites. He largely articulates a policy critical of Ahmadinejad's international theatrics and blames the lack of foreign investment and difficult economic times on Ahmadinejad's foolish posturing to the world. He is not a reformist, but in an attempt to capture a larger percentage of the young vote he has proposed to cut the compulsory military service from two years to one. He possesses serious Hard Line credentials as he held the chief commander position of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps for 16 years. His candidacy also suggests that conservatives think the election is likely not to go in Ahmadinejad's favor and if Rezai can capture some of the support that might go to a reformist candidate it could keep a reformist candidate from reaching 50% in the first round. Moreover, if he gains more votes than Ahmadinejad then Ahmadinejad's supporters will likely come to him in the runoff election. If he does not get more votes than Ahmadinejad, than his backers can switch in the runoff and leave Ahmadinejad more beholden to them if he still wins. Either way, since there are more reformist candidates, the Hard Liners certainly don't seem to see Rezai's candidacy as a risk. It stands to reason that the Reformist vote will be more split than the Conservative, as there are more Reformist candidates.
Mir-Hossein Mousavi APPROVED
Mousavi is a Reformist candidate who is gambling by having his wife campaign directly with him. He no doubt seeks to capture the votes of many women who perceive the Ahmadinejad years as big steps backwards. This strategy gains further support when coupled with the fact that 65% of Iranian university students are women. Mousavi--Prime Minister during the Iran-Iraq war (There was a different structure of government then.) has serious credentials as a competent technocrat. His wife is also perceived positively and has been written about here: Massomeh Torfeh's article on Dr. Zahra Rahnavard. Dr. Rahnavard served as a close adviser to President Khatami, and held the position of President of Al-zahra University. If the women's vote comes out strongly for him it is possible they could propel him to a first round win, or at the very least advancement to the runoff election.
Mehdi Karroubi APPROVED
Karroubi served Ayatollah Khomeini, but resigned over too much influence of non-elected conservative factions. He is a Reformist who opposed many policies of Rafsanjani in the 90s. He shares Ahmadinejad's populism, but nothing else. He supports women's rights and appointing women to high cabinet positions. Unlike the three candidates described above, Karroubi is a cleric. If nothing else, the election of Ahmadinejad showed the ability to move away from clerical domination of all high government positions. For this reason, it is unlikely that Karroubi will gain significant support, despite his attractive positions to many reform-minded Iranians.
Akbar Alami NOT APPROVED
Alami, a Reformist candidate who served in the Majlis, questions some of the basic assumptions of Islamic Law as practiced in Iran. He ascribes to a statute definition of relations between the government and citizens which relies less on more vague constructions of human interpretation given to Islamic jurists. His positions remain highly critical of Ahmadinejad and support wide reforms. He probably stands little chance to make it past the June 12th vote.
Azam Taleghani NOT APPROVED
Taleghani, the daughter of Ayatollah Mahmoud Taleghani, and reformist candidate may not actually reach the ballot due to the fact that she's a woman. A number of women tried to run in 2005 and did not obtain approval for the ballot. If her candidacy continues it could show a serious change in the Guardian Council's views. Or, cynically, it could be seen as a attempt to limit the effect of the women's vote on Mousavi's candidacy. If the Reformist female vote becomes effectively split then the top two candidates on June 12th could be Ahmadinejad and Rezai.
May 20th Update: Since Ms. Taleghani has not been approved the possibility of spltting the women's vote is less, however it certainly would have been quite a step forward to put a woman on the ballot.
Conclusions:
As I have written before, HERE, it is important to put the current Iranian political environment into proper context. Iran's leaders and polity possess a distinct mistrust of "outside influences" on their internal politics. This is why you will see announcements like this from Supreme Leader Khamenei:
"Those who submit to the enemies and bring shame on the nation should not come to power by the people's vote," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said during a speech in the western town of Bijar.
Reported in the LA Times, and cited in the Huffington Post
The charge of being "influenced by foreigners" carries the same scorn as the smear of being a "communist sympathizer" in the the US in the 1950s and 60s. Iran's government lead by Ayatollahs like Khamenei will continue to espouse vehemently anti-Western and particularly anti-US and anti-Israel rhetoric. This will be the case even if a reformer like Mousavi is elected. This is all the more reason as to why diplomatic relations need to be opened up. With consistent interaction with the US, we will benefit by actually learning about how Iran's politics work; who can be taken seriously and who cannot. Iran's people, with exposure to Americans will be less likely to believe the Hard Liners more outrageous pronouncements. It certainly provides a great deal more promise than bombing. The young population of Iran does not harbor any particular resentment toward the US, but if we bomb them, they will.
If polls are to be believed, then Ahmadinejad is still the favorite in the upcoming election. However, it is important to note, that the rest of the world does not campaign like the US does. The announcement of approved candidates tomorrow launches the campaign officially, and a great deal could still change. Ahmadinejad won in 2005 for a variety of reasons. 1) Khatami could not run--one can only serve two consecutive terms as President 2) The ruling elites, like Rafsanjani, had become extremely wealthy since the Revolution and Ahmadinejad campaigned as a "Man of the People." 3) Many intellectuals sat out the election as they were disgusted with Khatami's eight years and lack of progress on reform. 4) The US occupied both Iraq and Afghanistan on their borders, and so the Hard Liners appeared to be more correct. The list could go on... Now, Ahmadinejad is the incumbent, and indeed someone like Mousavi could ask the Reaganesque question, "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" For many the answer is "no", and for women the answer is a resounding "NO!!" In any case, if Mousavi can pull off an upset this could provide an opening to moving US/Iranian relations quietly and gently to a saner level of discourse. One can hope.
May 20 update: With only four candidates the chance for a definitive result on June 12th increases substantially. In the last election there were eight candidates approved for the ballot. Ahmadinejad won in the runoff election. It remains to be seen whether the Reformers or the Conservatives gain advantage from the short field, my gut feeling says this is good for Mousavi, with a strong turnout of women he may be able to reach 50% in the first ballot. Here's a link to the official announcement:
Official Candidates