The memory of
this diary about the latest numbers on California's upcoming special election was still pretty fresh in my memory today. Overall, fairly good news (or not bad news)--74 and 75 are close, and 76/77 looked to be going down in flames.
Then I watched tonight's local news. More below.
The dKos diary by sanchez96 referred to the Public Policy Institute of California's
poll. Tonight's news reported on the Hoover Institute's
poll released today, with signifcantly different results. The numbers, (PPIC yes/no, Hoover
yes/no):
Prop 74, teacher tenure: 46/48, 53/47
Prop 75, union dues: 46/46, 64/36
Prop 76, state budget: 30/62, 44/55
Prop 77, redistricting: 36/50, 55/45
The differences between the polls, 75, 76 and 77 in particular, is surprising. I'm not a professional poll watcher, by any means, but the disparities raise one, if not both, my eyebrows.
I offer no other analysis than this: Taking these polls at face value, right now anything could happen come November 8.