The latest developments out of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region are always worth discussing. Beyond the fact that there is a war going on, beyond the U.S.'s precious commitments to the area, it is also the area where al Qaeda Central operates.
Afghanistan:
Following Pakistan's offensive against the TTP(Pakistani Taliban) in Swat last year, the TTP leader there had claimed to have fled to eastern Afghanistan. In recent days members of that Taliban faction had engaged in combat against Afghan security forces in the eastern province of Nuristan. Reports had stated that Maulvi Fazlullah himself had led the group of 300 or so Taliban. Reports now suggest that Maulvi Fazlullah, one of Pakistan's most wanted men, has died in the fighting. No confirmation yet.(
Dawn)
Pakistan:
Fighting continues in the tribal agency of Orakzai, the TTP's "second home" as Pakistani security forces seek to break the militants' hold on central-FATA.(Dawn)
The big news to report pertains to North Waziristan- the rear base of the Haqqani network and the most likely hiding place of al Qaeda Central's network and leadership. As I've been maintaining, I don't expect the Pakistanis to launch an operation into the area until at least August for a few big reasons; internally-displaced people, strain, prudence, and the U.S. buildup on the otherside of the border. Well, there's been a major development.
Hafiz Gul Bahadur, the Taliban commander of North Waziristan, has either reached an agreement with Hakimullah Mehsud or politely banished Mehsud and the TTP from North Waziristan. It really depends on who you're asking. At any rate, according to reports, the TTP militants who had been sheltered in North Waziristan are returning to South Waziristan- namely the Shaktoi/Makeen area, which is not just mountainous but also heavily-wooded. But the Pakistani army already defeated them there once before, and they are in an even stronger position to deal with them than they had been in the fall of last year.
A lot of talk is happening regarding the Pakistani state's role in the talks between Bahadur and Mehsud. Some think the Pakistanis are trying to find an excuse to not go into North Waziristan. In my opinion, the truth is that the Pakistanis are trying to find an excuse to not go into North Waziristan right now to fight not just the TTP(Pashtun and Punjab) but also Bahadur's forces, Haqqani's forces, al Qaeda Central's forces, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan's forces, et cetra. If I were a Pakistani I would rather draw the TTP back into South Waziristan to fight them there separately from the militants being sheltered in North Waziristan and the militants focusing on Afghanistan. I have said it a hundred times; the Pakistanis are incrementalists and are trying to guide their war on the Taliban with prudence. It is far easier for them to engage the TTP in the Shaktoi/Makeen regions of South Waziristan than it is for them to engage them in North Waziristan which would probably turn most of the "Afghan-Taliban" in the region against them. If you were a Pakistani, would you rather engage the TTP that had been sheltered in North Waziristan in North Waziristan where you'd be fighting many militants at once, or in South Waziristan where you'd be fighting far fewer at once? A telling sign of Pakistani army's intentions is the latest from the government's Interior-Minister/Chief-Liar Rehman Malik, that failed Times Sq. bomber Faisal Shahzad had links to South Waziristan.
In addition to consolidating and defending their victories in South Waziristan and Swat, the Pakistani army would be wise to look north and keep an eye on Bajaur; the northern-most of the federally-administered tribal agencies, where the Taliban are far from dead.