If the DCCC can leak a story like this, "
Democrats Plan Political Triage to Retain House," to the NY Times over the weekend, then
really lamely refute it--or really NOT refute it at all, as the reality of the matter actually reflects the Party's quite weak attempts to deny the truth--via DCCC Chair and Rep. Chris Van Hollen, all during the same Labor Day weekend, then I sure as hell can speak my mind as I wish about the absurd kabuki we're now witnessing with regard to our economy.
(Rebutting Van Hollen's evasive response to the Times article in a DCCC press release, the truth here is that the DCCC provides "resources" to virtually all of its candidates; however, as far as providing money for significant media buys to the Dem incumbents running for re-election to Congress that really need the help the most...not so much...at least if you're in one of approximately 20 currently Democratic congressional seats where our party's predetermined, two months out, that you're toast.)
After all's said and done, if writing off 20,
sitting (one- and two-term) Democratic congresspeople is acceptable conversation to be had in (semi-) public now by the folks running the Democratic show (even if it's not for attribution--and even when the DNC is still raising money in those 20 congressional districts without informing its supporters in those districts of these inconvenient realities), then little ole yours truly can speak his mind about many other facts unmentioned (at least
here on DKos over the past few days). Because, quite frankly, if a tree falls on Main Street, and you don't hear it, all that means is that
you weren't listening (or your hands were over your ears; or, you weren't reading about it, and/or your hands were over your eyes, instead).
IMHO, as George Carlin used to refer to it, the "Vuja De" has been running quite thick this Labor Day weekend. (From, of all places, the Harvard Business Review Blog puts a more positive spin on this "Carlinology," "What George Carlin Taught Innovators--The Virtues of Vuja Dé.")
(Many here have been yelling about these same issues--whether it's the DCCC playing campaign demigod behind the backs of its contributors in 2006, much to the convenient benefit of the blue dogs I might add, or yours truly ranting while parsing the prescient commentary from folks like Stiglitz and Krugman during the past few years--the fact of the matter is ALL of this sh*t is now hitting the fan simultaneously. And, the "misdirective" from many here is: "Shut up and toe the line.")
The truth of the matter is we've either experienced virtually all of these nightmares before, or we've heard all about everything that we're now, STILL, witnessing occurring before us, politically (see links, above) and economically, right now.
Democratic leaders are surreptitiously throwing Democratic congresspeople and/or great new candidates under the bus.
STILL.
Scores of millions are suffering, economically, while we continue to pander to the Republicans.
STILL.
And, many of you don't want to hear about these truths in our reality-based community. (It's as if the fact that these stories are running as the ledes in the NYT and other major media outlets is irrelevant. The "problem" for Democrats, as many reading this post have "determined" it, is that you're being reminded of it now, here on this blog.)
STILL.
A NY Times' Editorial, from Sunday: "Jobs and Politics."
Jobs and Politics
Editorial
NY Times
September 5, 2010
The August employment report, released Friday, was not as bad as economists had forecast. Unfortunately, exceeding low expectations and making progress are not the same thing. Yet, speaking from the Rose Garden after the report was released, President Obama said the economy was moving in a "positive direction."
The economy lost 54,000 jobs in August, far fewer than forecast. The private sector added 67,000 jobs -- and tallies for the past two months were revised upward -- while the government sector, mostly the Census, shed 121,000 employees. Dig into the numbers, however, and both sectors are in deep trouble.
Growth in private jobs has slowed markedly this year, from a monthly average of 119,000 in the first four months to 72,000 jobs on average in the past four months. That is not nearly enough to employ new workers, let alone make a dent in the ranks of the unemployed. Worse, most of the new jobs in August were in health care and food service, where very low-paying jobs -- like home care aides and fast-food workers -- are concentrated. A job is better than no job, but jobs that do not amount to a living will not lift the economy.
And, then there was Krugman on his blog on Sunday afternoon, too: "Delusions Of Recovery."
Delusions Of Recovery
Paul Krugman
NY Times Blog
September 5, 2010, 1:21 pm
I've had a couple of conversations lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren't that close to the economic discussion -- and I've discovered that there are two comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we're on the road to recovery, just more slowly than we'd like; to be fair, the White House keeps saying this.
But it's not at all true. GDP is growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the current track, the answer is forever...
Bold type is diarist's emphasis.
Krugman continues on to discuss "Delusion #2," the reality that stimulus will solve the problem, since there are still substantial, unspent stimulus funds still available. But, as Krugman also points out, it's not about total funds spent, it's about the rate at which those funds are being spent. (i.e.: If one wishes to see GDP and employment rise significantly over a short period of time, a lot of money must be expended very quickly during that same period, too.) And, as Krugman reminds us, stimulus spending has already peaked.
But, let's get back to that NYT Editorial from Sunday, and as it relates to the two most recent political/economic stories of the past 24 hours.
The reality is, for all intents and purposes, not to mention the general economic consensus, is that the economy is going to continue to worsen over the next 60 days, and for at least many months after that. As Sunday's NYT editorial points out, census workers will continue to be laid off. State and local governments are--instead of picking up the slack--in dire need of funds, themselves. Employers have not added any time to the work week in many months. And, the money we're earning for these already-limited hours is being stretched to the max by family members who can't find sufficient employment.
The editorial continues along to tell us that we're short nearly 11 million jobs since the Recession started in December 2007. And, this Labor Day weekend, both Calculated Risk and Zero Hedge are saying the same thing.
And, judging from the latest graphics being provided by our own Bureau of Labor Statistics--interestingly enough--all of a sudden, even those blue vertical bars that signaled the starting and stopping points of our past recessions are now heading off into eternity, as opposed to ending in the Summer of 2009! As Calculated Risk noted over the past evening: "Reconciling the Household and Payroll Surveys of Employment."
I strongly encourage all reading this diary to checkout the chart--and the fine print in it--linked in the Calculated Risk story, immediately below.
Reconciling the Household and Payroll Surveys of Employment
by CalculatedRisk on 9/06/2010 04:10:00 PM
--SNIP--
The linked monthly report from the BLS discusses the differences, and adjusts the household survey to "an employment concept more similar to the payroll survey's".
BSL Household and Payroll Surveys
CHART: Household and payroll survey employment, seasonally adjusted, 1994-2010
(DIARIST'S NOTE: The Bureau of Labor Statistics notations on the length of the Great Recession, and how it's now graphically reflected on this chart. This is a first, as far as I can tell, in terms of the government's own charts now indicating uncertainty as to the actual/formal length of the Recession.)
This graph from the BLS shows the household survey, the payroll survey and the adjusted household survey.
I was inspired to post this graph by Professor Nancy Folbre's post at Economix: Taking the `Un' Out of Unemployment
--SNIP--
As Steven Hipple, a Bureau of Labor Statistics economist, puts it in a more detailed analysis of trends through the end of 2009, "Economic decision-makers might not understand the depth of the economic hole in the labor market."
Little employment growth for a decade is quite a "hole".
Note: Over the same decade, according to the Census Bureau, the U.S. population, has increased from around 285 million to 310 million
Spelling it out for everyone, as Zero Hedge also noted over the past 24 hours: "A 7 Million Increase In US Population Results In A Labor Force... Decline? Why The US Has Really Lost 11.2 Million Jobs This Recession."
Also per Zero Hedge: The harsh facts of our economic reality--once you understand the true nature of the statistics involved--tell us that under the most optimistic conditions, we are at a point where even wildly optimstic forecasts assume that the length of the most recent economic slowdown will take 85 months to resolve (and, in all reality, far, far longer).
As the folks over at the NYT editorial page remind us: the drop in our nation's unemployment rate, from a peak of 10.1% in October '09 to 9.6% this past month, "...has come almost entirely because of people dropping out of the work force -- or not entering -- because there are no jobs to be had."
The editorial continues...
...This week, the Obama administration is expected to unveil a plan for jobs, but early word indicates that it will be a political response designed to campaign specifications, and not to the scale of the problem.
Administration officials are said to be considering a package centered on business tax cuts, because those are presumably more palatable to Republicans -- and to Democrats who are afraid of losing to Republicans and cannot think of a better response than to mimic their ideas.
The administration seems to have forgotten that the Republicans who run the show in Congress are happy to oppose their own ideas if Mr. Obama embraces them...
There is talk, as the editorial points out, of letting the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy expire at year's end, and using those funds to pay for more jobs programs. On the other hand, many are saying that letting the Bush tax cuts for the rich expire at year's end simply isn't going to happen. eHowever, based upon another top story in Tuesday's NY Times, "Obama to Propose Tax Write-Off for Capital Investments," it looks like our Party--as the editorial notes above--is being reduced to doing little more than mimicking the G.O.P.'s failed ideas!
Then there's an even greater, harsher truth at the end of the editorial, and it's this: aside from the extensions of jobless benefits this year, there was "...a $13 billion hiring credit for employers and $26 billion in aid to states. A large part of the hiring tax credit is likely to have gone to employers who would have hired new workers anyway. The state aid was cut nearly in half before it got through Congress."
The editorial concludes by telling us the primary danger to our economy is not going to come from the stalled job market in coming months, it's going to come from "...the stalled politics of Washington."
And, this brings us back to George Carlin's "Vuja De," or at least the Harvard Business Review's convenient distortion of it, per what they had to say about him, around the time of his passing just over a couple of years ago: "What George Carlin Taught Innovators--The Virtues of Vuja Dé."
What George Carlin Taught Innovators--The Virtues of Vuja Dé
Harvard Business Review
Posted by Bill Taylor on June 23, 2008 12:10 PM
Fans of edgy comedy--and critics of the political establishment--are mourning the death of George Carlin. Most of us know this game-changing comedian through his riff on the "seven words you can never say on television."
--SNIP--
But George Carlin made another contribution to the language--believe it or not, to the language of business and innovation. The term he coined was "vuja dé"--and it's become a battle cry of sorts for innovators who aspire to make big change by identifying opportunities that others don't see.
We all know déjà vu--looking at an unfamiliar situation and feeling like you've been there before. But what's valuable to innovation is vuja dé--looking at a familiar situation with fresh eyes, as if you've never seen it before, and with those fresh eyes developing a new line of sight into the future.
Let's face it: Most companies in most industries have a kind of tunnel vision. They chase the same opportunities that everyone else is chasing, they miss the same opportunities that everyone else is missing...
Which brings me to my conclusion of my Labor Day 2010 post, a few hours later than Labor Day, itself, and Bob Kuttner's column from Sunday night, on HuffPo: "Not Just Jobs -- Good Jobs."
Not Just Jobs -- Good Jobs
Robert Kuttner
Co-founder and co-editor of The American Prospect
Posted: September 5, 2010 10:30 PM
On Labor Day 2010, we are short at least 25 million jobs. And just as importantly, we don't have enough jobs that pay decently.
The press last week was full of stories that the jobs picture was not as dismal as feared.
The economy is actually generating jobs again -- just not enough to make a dent in the backlog of 15 million Americans officially out of work and another 8 million with part time jobs seeking full time ones, and millions more out of the labor force entirely.
In the government's most recent report, released Friday, officially measured unemployment actually increased to 9.6 percent, just one tenth of a point below its rate last Labor Day.
--SNIP--
But there is a larger story here that predates the recent financial collapse. The economy not only has a scarcity of jobs, but a shortage of good jobs. And while Republicans would resist legislating a serious public jobs program, the administration should fight for one anyway.
And there is plenty that government could do right now to improve jobs pay via executive powers...
Kuttner then continues on to list numerous things President Obama could do, right away, in: "The Case for Presidential Action, There is a lot the administration can do without legislation." And, I strongly encourage you to read not just Kuttner's entire post, linked above, but the following special report from him and many others in: "American Prospect's Special Report, October 2010: Jobs Well Done."
Kuttner spells out the solid answers that Democrats could take to the bank, right away, as we head into the final stretch of the mid-term season!
Peace, good health, happiness...and prosperity...to all, at the start of this new school year!