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Via TPM and Mark Blumenthal at HuffPo come the results of a new poll conducted by Greenberg-Quinlan for the AFL-CIO on the Wisconsin union-busting battle.  Though the poll itself is not yet available online, Blumenthal provides a detailed breakdown of its questions and the results.  The short version?  It's not even close: we're kicking Walker's tail.

Here is Blumenthal's graphic representation of how the different players are perceived in Wisconsin:

Image Source

Greenberg-Quinlan also asked respondents specifically about Walker's plan, with the question providing a detailed description of exactly what Walker is proposing to do:

As you may know, Governor Scott Walker recently announced a plan to limit most public employees' ability to negotiate their wages and benefits. The plan cuts pension and health care benefits for current public workers, and restricts new wage increases unless approved by a voter referendum. Contracts would be limited to one year, with wages frozen until a new contract is settled. In addition, Walker's plan also changes rules to require collective bargaining units to take annual votes to maintain certification as a union, stops employers from collecting union dues, and allows members of collective bargaining units to avoid paying dues. Law enforcement, fire employees and state troopers and inspectors would be exempt from the changes.

The plan doesn't fly with the good folk of America's Dairyland: only 42% support while a full 52% oppose Walker's power grab.  Intensity favors our side as well, because while there is 24% strong support for the plan strong opposition came in at 41%.

More tidbits from the poll, Walker's job approval is a net negative ten points, 41%-51%, his favorability is also net negative 10, 39%-49%, but Senate Dems have a net positive favorability of 9 points, 47%-38%.

Polling for this survey was conducted last weekend, on February 19-20, coincident with the big rallies at the State Capitol.  Wisconsites are paying attention, and they don't like what they see from their governor.  (MB's APR today linking to editorials from around the state confirms what we see in this poll data.)

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Comment Preferences

  •  walker may have to bend (12+ / 0-)

    The longer this goes the worse Walkers polls will get. This guy has national aspirations so as he gets more toxic he may have to give. I am pretty sure in a year he could be recalled.

    •  There's no question in my mind (19+ / 0-)

      Walker is going to lose this one.  While the baggers have started a recall campaign against one Democratic senator they view as vulnerable, labor activists have already identified six potentially vulnerable Republicans.

      As we start putting pressure on their moderate base, the extremists Walker and the Fitzgeralds will find themselves isolated and powerless.  The best thing for him to do right now is cut his losses and deal.

      The good news for us is that he's too stupid stubborn to do that, so he's going to come in for a even bigger fall.  We might have to wait until next year, but it's looking more and more likely he won't finish out his term.

      Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
      ¡Boycott Arizona!

      by litho on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 06:17:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  how do you see that? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      politicalget, progressivebadger

      we have one poll that shows his numbers fading slightly after some major protests.

      he has the ability to pass the legislation without the democrats input, and likely will do so in a parliamentary maneuver along party lines should the the 14 not return.

      the unions have already conceded (!) all of the economic points - this isn't victory no matter how much lipstick you apply to this. nobody is winning.

      "In my many years I have come to a conclusion that one useless man is a shame, two is a law firm, and three or more is a congress." -John Adams

      by rcnewton on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 06:53:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Here's a formula to explain (13+ / 0-)

    why Republicans are so powerful despite their low poll numbers...

    Personal wealth X Personal Opinion = Personal Influence

    If cats could blog, they wouldn't.

    by crystal eyes on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 06:16:48 AM PST

  •  Walker's going to double down. (20+ / 0-)

    He's shooting to kill the unions and the democratic party; if he only wounds them, and gives them a chance to retaliate, he's in deep trouble.

    He's going to double down.

    "It's too soon to tell". Mao, when asked about the consequences of the French Revolution.

    by Inland on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 06:18:22 AM PST

  •  I am appalled that Walker's plan (11+ / 0-)

    polls as well as it does.

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 06:25:35 AM PST

  •  Walker asked Wisconsin's local news stations (15+ / 0-)

    for a little air time tonight at 6 PM CST.  You know what he's going to say--it's going to be the same crybaby shit he's been doing for the past week.

    He had a press conference last night, too, during the start of the local news broadcasts.  At least two of Madison's TV stations didn't cover it.  I only caught it when I switched to MSNBC.

    He fucked up big time with this one.  Now it's biting him in the ass.

    Never meddle in the affairs of cats, for they are subtle and will piss on your computer.--Bruce Graham

    by Ice Blue on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 06:35:31 AM PST

  •  We're winning because this is what people want (7+ / 0-)

    to see. They want to see Democrats taking a stand, not waffling and trying to play all sides of an issue. Whether right or wrong, the public is inspired by revolution. This can be good or bad...in the case of 2010, they were swept up by false emotions, by a false grassroots wave...we have the opportunity to start a REAL one.

    Here's to our last drink of fossil fuels - may we vow to get off of this sauce. Shoo away the swarms of commuter planes...and find that train ticket we lost.

    by terra on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 06:46:28 AM PST

  •  Is the no bid sale of state assets (6+ / 0-)

    getting much play?  Seems like that would be a pretty big issue even for folks who are not big union supporters.

    "I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel." Maya Angelou

    by ahumbleopinion on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 06:50:27 AM PST

  •  Moderate Republicans are PISSED OFF!!! (11+ / 0-)

    http://scottwalkerwatch.com/...

    This is a recall walker website and I found this letter from a moderate republican

    Kassia Skubis-Millar says:
    February 21, 2011 at 3:44 am

    This is my letter –

    Senator Luther Olson,

    I live in Columbus, WI and am 42 years old. LOTS of time left to work and VOTE. I have gotten an email from you stating my voice is being heard. I sure hope me and 70,000 people’s voices have been heard. I am a moderate Republican and I am angered. I no longer support this party in any way shape or form. To take monumental groundbreaking history and wipe in out in a bill that is rammed through is disgusting.

    I am also a union member. SEIU health care providers. I am an RN with a base salary of $50,000. $75,000 (thank GOD AND MY UNION) last year if you count all the overtime I worked, crazy shifts, double backs, weekends and holidays…ALL WITHIN THE GUIDELINES OF MY UNIONS COLLECTIVELY BARGAINED CONTRACT. I am NOT a public employee so this does not impact me NOW but will.

    I Our income was cut in 1/2 when my husband was laid off 20 months ago. I negotiated lower rates on everything we had, I signed up for a federal program to help with my student loans, I PAID ALL MY BILLS ON TIME and eliminated many debts during this time. I plan to be debt free before I am 45 with the exception of my mortgage and some student loan left. We became foster parents & adopted 3 children. We want to be part of the SOLUTION NOT THE PROBLEM.

    He is learning to drive a bus, to process school bus repair claims and delivers mail for the EVERY SATURDAY for the USPS. There are no jobs in the HVAC field for an estimator or designer and he has not installed for 10 years. He could sit on the bench again but would never be called. Too many guys there with experience in-front of him. So you do what you have to and re-invent yourself.

    SHAME ON Anyone supporting this fabricated budget correction bill. Considering the state started out with a surplus. SHAME ON Anyone who allowed our Governor to give tax breaks to his big business as a pay back. This put us in the hole and opened the window for this emergency bill. Shame on anyone who allowed him to place the majority leaders father into a position of power that he did not EARN !

    I may or may not be able to take part in a recall action related to your Senate seat. I presume that my particular Senator is Fitzgerald but I will do my best to sort that out…shame on me for not knowing this detail. Shame on me for my political apathy. That has changed and I am active. I have posted a copy of this bill to everyone I know. I have posted video all of the action in the senate and assembly for everyone to see. It was despicable, rude, almost illegal, disrespectful. I have also posted all the information I can find about recalling or impeaching government officials. If I am able to partake in any fashion related to a recall of your seat…if you are unable to have an impact on your fellow Republicans Senators….I will do so.

    I also will be taking my $75,000 income and spending in very discretionary. I WILL NOT, if at all possible, support any business who has, in any fashion, given to Walker. I boycott them all and will share what I know with others.

    I am going to have to change my bank!! Checking to see if American Family supported him…if so…guess I will have to check out new insurance. Plan to sell the John Deer and get a new rider. No more Karuba coffee or Kwik and lows EVERYDAY. I already quit working at Quad Graphics AND CHANGED MY CAREER but have a good idea of what they print…won’t be buying those magazines or from the catalogers they print for. No one in my home is allowed to shop at Menard’s anymore. I have to check into Wal-mart and Kohl’s next and the list goes on. Well even better for my personal debt reduction plan. No money spent there can pay things off faster.

    Thank you for listening…if you did.
    I will share this letter with all my friends and their friends.

    Sincerely,
    Kassia Skubis-Millar RN
    Graduate of UW Stout 1991 – Industrial Technology
    Graduate of Madison Area Technical College 2006 – ADN

    I also saw this video from a conservative republican that listens to Rush Limbaugh and watch OReilly....HE IS PISSED.. http://www.ustream.tv/...

    Walker may have stepped in something he should have and this has backfired. The longer this thing festers and the more people start to realize what is going on and why they tried to ram this bill through in the dark of night.

  •  There are two Wisconsins: urban and rural (4+ / 0-)

    I'd like to see more information about the folks polled:

    Where are they?
    Who are they?

    In my mind those are likely to be the same question about the same people.

    I presume well-designed polls sample the population in ways that reflect geographic distribution. In the news reports I've sampled to read, I don't see mention of this. I don't see it mentioned much in the analyses of Wisconsin politics I've sampled either.

    I grew up in rural Wisconsin. This drama seems to be playing out mostly in urban Wisconsin. Like some other states these days, the urban / rural divide greatly affects attitudes and voting.

    Today's Pundit Roundup op-ed quotes from Eau Claire and Oshkosh encourage me somewhat, but even those may not reflect small town and country attitudes.

    Are we winning both Wisconsins?


    Most models are wrong, but some are useful.

    by etbnc on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 07:01:28 AM PST

    •  My sense is that we are winning both (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      luckylizard, etbnc

      I haven't seen a complete list of the school districts closed by teacher walkouts, but I do know that many of them are in small and outlying areas.

      The only thing I know about the poll's representativeness is that the pollster claims a margin of error of +/- 5%.  That's a little high, but within industry standards.  Greenberg Quinlan is a major DC Democratic pollster with a pretty good track record.  I would imagine they took pains to include rural respondents in their sample.

      Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
      ¡Boycott Arizona!

      by litho on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 07:12:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  rural diversity (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ice Blue, luckylizard, etbnc

      The whole Fox Valley area is rock-ribbed Republican, but the northern and western rural areas are often blue, particularly in presidential years. I think the teaparty energy is pouring out of suburban Waukesha and Ozaukee counties. They are not only red but had a very, very high turnout in November.

      All the angry pissed off suburban independents turned out and voted for Walker. Are they feeling any buyers' remorse? Maybe it's too early to say.

      •  That rock-ribbed Republican Fox Valley (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ice Blue, luckylizard, dmhlt 66

        sent a Democrat to Congress for two terms starting in '06.  Though Kagen fell in the Republican wave last November, there are still plenty of Dem voters in Green Bay and Appleton.  And Dave Hansen is a damn good Dem Senator from Green Bay.

        Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
        ¡Boycott Arizona!

        by litho on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 07:24:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Totally agree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          etbnc

          I was thinking of rural areas north of Milwaukee and south of Green Bay--I think those are redder than northern and western rural areas.

          Do you think Kagen will run again? I hope he does. I endure Senselessbrenner with little hope of relief.

          •  I was in Green Bay for the '06 campaign (0+ / 0-)

            but haven't been back since.  I suspect, though, he probably won't try again.

            There may be some other local politicians willing to step up.  My favorite is Celestine Jeffreys, though I don't know if she's interested.

            Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
            ¡Boycott Arizona!

            by litho on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 08:28:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  an interactive map (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      scribeboy, litho

      Thanks for your feedback, litho and scribeboy.

      I found a 2010 election result map that's interactive:
      county map of Wisconsin 2010 election results (NYT)

      The graphic in the upper right is interactive. I'm looking at the 'bubbles' view of the governors race. (Governor Bubbles? Hmmm....)

      As y'all noted, there's intensity of support for Walker in Waukesha and nearby. The diffusion of red circles throughout so much of the rest of the state suggests to me a potential lingering problem.

      The brighter side, as litho notes, is that schools in rural areas might offer one of the few contacts that rural voters have with real people involved in organized labor. I hope that exposure offers rural residents a personal connection to the protests.

      Cheers


      Most models are wrong, but some are useful.

      by etbnc on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 07:48:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The northern rural areas are sending (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      scribeboy, litho, luckylizard, Amber6541, etbnc

      a few down to Mad City but, you've got to remember, we got dumped with about a foot of snow and a lot of us aren't dug out yet.

      We have our share of Union members, just like the rest of the state.  Not all of them are flaming liberals but once Walker tries to bust their Union they've got him in their sights.  

      We have a lot of struggling single mother who tend Democratic.  The trouble is, they often don't vote at all.  Then there's the elderly, who do vote, who could go either way, but it's usually toward the conservative side.

      Here's the thing--my area has a high school drop out rate of over 50%.  We've got a lot of jimbobs running around who have no futures.  They're the ones who are attracted to the tea party.   Worse, we've still got a couple of Birchers and Posse Comitatus to worry about.

      Altogether, though, we usually vote blue.

      Never meddle in the affairs of cats, for they are subtle and will piss on your computer.--Bruce Graham

      by Ice Blue on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 07:51:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  We've got a perfect opportunity (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        luckylizard, nancat357, snapples

        to organize those "jimbobs" into unions right now.

        Interviews with teabaggers show a lot of resentment towards union members, who enjoy higher wages and better benefits than non-union workers.  Turn that resentment into desire, get those folks into unions, and we win not only this fight but many future ones as well.

        There is power in a union.  We must never forget that.

        Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
        ¡Boycott Arizona!

        by litho on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 08:31:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  What these jimbob's do not realize (0+ / 0-)

          is they would not be making what they make now if it wasn't for the unions negotiating higher wages and benefits. This always brings up their standard of living.

        •  They're losers. The Unions don't want them. Most (0+ / 0-)

          have drug problems or criminal histories or can barely read.  They're the sort that can't be trusted to do quality work.  Think extras from the movie Deliverance.  

          Yet in their books, Unions exist for the sole purpose of taking every dime from the little guy, forget the fact he had his ass hauled into court for fucking up a job someone hired him to do.  It's all the Unions' fault, along with the judge and the county commisioners'.

          Never meddle in the affairs of cats, for they are subtle and will piss on your computer.--Bruce Graham

          by Ice Blue on Wed Feb 23, 2011 at 05:51:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Walker's Trojan Horse Bill...... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    litho, itskevin, Fury

    has been exposed.    That's not what he intended.  His plan was to ram it thru.  In the process, he's galvanized union workers across the United States.

    I was at a rally at the state Capital in Olympia, Washington state yesterday. We gathered in solidarity w/ Wisconsin. The unions blew the roof off the place.  Right after that rally, a measure to limit collective bargaining for Washington state workers was defeated in our Senate.

     Dennis Kucinich made a surprise appearance.  He put on a green SEIU T shirt.  800 people then attended his 2 hr talk on the costs of war at the State Theater.  

    One of the questions asked was about Wisconsin & Walker's union busting attempt.  Clearly....the 800 attendees were NOT on Walker's side.  

    •  A sleeping giant has been awakened. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      litho

      Their inroads with conservative leaning working people have just been demolished.  Rove must be pissed.

      Got Social Security? Thank a Democrat!

      by Fury on Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 09:55:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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