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Daily Kos polling on Wisconsin recall targets

Last night, Democrat Steve Doyle won the 94th Wisconsin state Assembly seat, which had been held by Republicans for over 16 years. It was a special election caused by the resignation of Republican Mike Huebsch, who left the seat to become Scott Walker's Administration Secretary. The final margin was 54% to 46%.

This victory has significant implications for the July 12th recall elections—specifically, for the top recall target, Republican state Senator Dan Kapanke. The 94th state Assembly district seat lies entirely with Dan Kapanke's state Senate district (PDF). In 2008, President Obama received 55% of the vote in the 94th state Assembly district, but totaled 61% across Kapanke's entire state Senate district.

If Democrats are winning the redder portions of Kapanke's district by 8%, then Kapanke is in a world of trouble. Hard to see how he avoids defeat at this point.

Additionally, it is worth noting that Doyle outperformed state Supreme Court candidate JoAnne Kloppenburg in the 94th. While Doyle received 54% of the vote, Kloppenburg scored only 52%. This gives credence to the Democratic contention that the officially non-partisan nature of the Supreme Court race resulted in Kloppenburg underperforming relative to the overall Democratic position in Wisconsin.

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