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Senate:

RI-Sen: Teabagging businessman Barry Hinckley, whom we've mentioned before, is sounding very much like a candidate—and very much like a teabagger. He's seems pretty positive about the Ryan Republican budget, and is calling out Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse for supposedly "fear-mongering" about it. This is a fight we definitely want to have.

Gubernatorial:

NV-Gov: PPP tested a rematch between new Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval and his 2010 opponent Rory Reid. In a big exception to PPP's other similar polls, Sandoval suffers almost no slippage, winning by 51-41. Tom Jensen says that the weak Rory Reid's favorables have managed to drop even further than where they were last November.

WV-Gov: Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin once again far outpaced the rest of the pack in fundraising, pulling in $777K in the last month, while his nearest opponent, House Speaker Rick Thompson, raised $267K (and loaned himself $106K). Other numbers at the link. Speaking of Tomblin, he has a new positive ad out, narrative by his wife. SoS Natalie Tennant, who lags badly in fundraising, also has a new spot.

House:

NV-02: The DCCC is, for now, officially not endorsing any candidate in the special election, but I have yet to hear a single Democrat say they don't want to see the party rally around Treasurer Kate Marshall. Let's hope it happens.

NY-13: We've been keeping tabs on this general theme for a while now, but Politico has a good summation of Rep. Mike Grimm's deliberate distancing from the teabaggers who helped get him elected in the first place. As a political matter, I think Grimm is making the right decision. While many Republicans are afraid of getting teabagged to death, in this case, I don't think these nuts have the power to bring Grimm down. So it makes sense for Grimm to spurn them, since it allows him to look more "moderate" when he faces actual voters next November.

Other Races:

NJ-St. Sen.: Carl Lewis has been fighting his ballot eligibility battle on two fronts: state and federal. In addition to getting dinged by both a state trial and appellate court, a separate request to get restored to the ballot has been denied by a federal district court. Lewis is appealing in both cases: to the NJ Supreme Court in the former, and the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in the latter.

Special Elections: From Johnny Longtorso:

As expected, Republicans easily held Wisconsin's AD-60 and AD-83. In AD-94, Steve Doyle picked up the seat for the Democrats by a 54-46 margin. Notably, this is the most Republican of the three Assembly districts within Dan Kapanke's Senate district, and despite being swingy, has been held by Republicans for the past 18 years.

In California's AD-04, Republican Beth Gaines won as expected, but Democrat Dennis Campanale had a respectable showing, only losing 55-45.

Chris Bowers has more on the Doyle victory.

Grab Bag:

DNC: Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz was formally elected DNC chair yesterday. She takes over from—hah, no, you're wrong—Donna Brazile, who had actually served as interim chair for a couple of weeks. (Alright, I admit, I didn't realize that myself until the other day.)

WATN?: Does it get more perfect that this? Former Missouri Senator and U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft has accepted a job as ethics counsel for Blackwater! A match truly made in the fifth bolgia of the eighth circle of hell.

Also, this is just unspeakably sad. You're going to have to click the link and watch the video.

Redistricting Roundup:

Colorado: Even though this one seems all but certain to head to the courts, Republicans are claiming to offer an "olive branch" map… but of course Democrats say it's no such thing. You can see the GOP map here. Dems have also put out a further compromise map of their own (you can see it at the link)… but maybe it's all just posturing for the eventual legal battle? Redistricting in general has been so full of shocks and surprises that I'm just reluctant to try to predict what this all might mean.

Missouri: The GOP-held legislature over-rode Gov. Jay Nixon's veto yesterday, meaning their map will become law. A fuller post will follow later today.

North Carolina: Rep. Patrick McHenry, the GOP's key figure in the state's redistricting process, sounds like he's already running a victory lap. His stated goal is to create a third majority-minority district to imperil the white Democrats in North Carolina's delegation. I'll just let McHenry speak for himself:

“Republicans should pick up three seats under any fair and legal map,” McHenry said. “That is huge. No other states in the nation would gain as many Republican seats. This would be in a state that Barack Obama won in 2008 and where we have had a Democratic governor since 1992—the longest such period in the nation. A 9-4 delegation is pretty good and would attempt to avoid the risk of a bad year for Republicans. Clearly, Reps. Kissell and Miller are serving their final term.”

But at least one black Democrat (who knows a thing or two about redistricting battles under the VRA) is openly skeptical: Rep. Mel Watt, who seems to think such a district couldn't permissibly be created, and in any event is not legally required.

Site News:

Twitter: If you are the owner of the Twitter account "dKosElections" (or you know who is), could you please contact me? Thanks.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu May 05, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Any inklings of a Dem running against (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, tietack

    Don Young up in Alaska? Just looking for a place to start volunteering.

  •  MO (0+ / 0-)

    is this just the congressional map or was it the whole shebang?

    23, ">Solid Liberal Democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

    by HoosierD42 on Thu May 05, 2011 at 05:09:41 AM PDT

  •  McHenry (5+ / 0-)

    Not only is he a partisan asshole, he's factually incorrect; Oregon has had a streak of Democratic Governors since 1986.

  •  Colorado - Redistricting Tally (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Kretzy

    I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Dem's compromise map will become law. Its 3-2-2. The same as the current map. Even City Integrity 4 was 3-2-2 (though the 2 swing districts would favor us instead of them, as with the compromise map).

    I won't add it to the tally just yet as I'd like to wait for more concrete news. I have moved Missouri from de facto completed to de jure. Has Fallin signed Oklahoma's map yet? The numbers from yesterday had a mistake in them somewhere, sorry.

    Without Colorado this is the count:

    2000: 21-32-10.
    2010: 18-31-11.

    With Colorado this is the count:

    2000: 24-34-12
    2010: 21-33-13.

    21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Thu May 05, 2011 at 05:21:11 AM PDT

    •  Realistically (0+ / 0-)

      The current map is 3-3-1; CO-04 was only competitive because Musgrave was so unliked. I doubt Gardner would have any trouble holding the current CO-04.

      •  Hmm. (0+ / 0-)

        Point taken.

        21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

        by wwmiv on Thu May 05, 2011 at 05:38:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I dunno (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        Larimer county is rapidly trending Democratic, and Weld is getting swingish. If you're talking about excising some of the rural counties to make up for suburban growth you're basically making a district that's going to lean Democratic within the next decade, and won't be an easy feat for a Republican to hold.

        "For fools rush in where angels fear to tread". -Alexnader Pope

        by ArkDem14 on Thu May 05, 2011 at 07:07:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  . (0+ / 0-)

          Thats why I have it as swing, but Johnny is still correct. Musgrave is the only reason we held the district with Markey. Its a swing which leans Republican, IMO.

          21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

          by wwmiv on Thu May 05, 2011 at 07:11:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Won't be for long (0+ / 0-)

            Even Bennet Managed to win Larimer, in 2010 no less. By 2016 Larimer will be a reliably Democratic county, and Weld will be 50-50 to Democratic leaning in a neutral year. Leave in Longmont, and only a few of the rural counties, and by then someone like Schaffer should have no trouble taking the seat.

            "For fools rush in where angels fear to tread". -Alexnader Pope

            by ArkDem14 on Thu May 05, 2011 at 08:26:03 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Rosy (0+ / 0-)

              I think you're being a little to rosy about our prospects there.

              21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

              by wwmiv on Thu May 05, 2011 at 08:34:10 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Shaffer probably isn't the best candidate (0+ / 0-)

                We need a moderate from the Greeley area to drive up turnout out east, since Fort Collins is trending so quickly in our direction. State Sen. Jim Reisberg has sort of the ideal profile, but he's too old.

                I think Gardner can hold that seat for a while, but he's too ambitious to stay there (sort of like Polis). When that seat comes open, or in a banner Dem year like 2008, we can take it. Until then, under the Dem compromise map, it's probably lean R.

                24, DKElections Gay Caucus Policy Chair; CA-14 (law school), CO-05 (home)

                by Kretzy on Thu May 05, 2011 at 10:01:33 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  How am I being rosy? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                I look at a district, where 60-70% of the population is in two counties. One, Larimer has gone from a county which gave Bush 60% in 2000, to a county that Michael Bennet won with 51% in the worst cycle for Democrats in a generation. Weld went from being a county where Republicans touched 70% to one where 57-59% is a ceiling for them.

                That's not including the way Longmont has also gone Democratic. What's more, these areas have experienced tremendous growth, while the core Republican voters, the rural regions, have shrunken or remained stagnant and in any map CO-04 will lose a sizable chunk of these, amounting to a bloc that would almost always provide a GOPer, (9and even did with Musgrave), with a 3-4 thousand vote margin over the Democrat.

                Taking that into account tell me how I'm being rosy? Bush won the area with 62% of the vote in 2000, then 58% in 2004, and then McCain won with 50%, and that's not taking into account what I just said, that is the district contracting and losing some 70% Republican areas on the rural fringe. I'm only being realistic.

                "For fools rush in where angels fear to tread". -Alexnader Pope

                by ArkDem14 on Thu May 05, 2011 at 01:51:47 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  Redistricting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, borodino21

    It's so unpredictable and weird! I think part of that is that this is the first time so many people have been following the process, because of the rise of the internet in political coverage (or maybe I am wrong; last time this happened I was eight and "into politics" meant I knew who the UN Secretary-General was).

    But props to Mell Watt for defending Democrats, unlike certain other black representatives (cough, cough, Missouri).

    •  while (0+ / 0-)

      many of the black representatives from the midwest have ethical issues or are just dicks, outside of detroit and indy (danny davis, jesse jackson jr, clay, cleaver, fudge, ellison), our southern non-floridian ones seem a lot better

      18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Thu May 05, 2011 at 03:32:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Acording to (0+ / 0-)

    Roll Call, Crossroads is contemplating going all in in NY-26

    Taxes are the price we pay for living in a civilized society. Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr., 1904

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Thu May 05, 2011 at 05:46:17 AM PDT

  •  NY-13: Left unsaid... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, KingofSpades

    ...is that the Staten Island Tea Party isn't in all that great of shape anyway.  After the November election they were talking about taking over the Republican Party and then a month or two ago you have their head, Frank Santarpia, the head of the Tea Party joining Councilman's Oddo in a part time not doing very much job to get some of that oh-so-sweet government healthcare.  This has caused more than a fair degree of disillusionment and infighting.

    Also Grimm  as a moderate is overstated.  Their complaint is his unwillingness to criticize and oppose the Republican leadership rather than being an apostate to the party.  Of course tactically it does move the perception of him to the center which is beneficial.  The question is whether he can play the handful of votes where he's differed from the leadership into him showing "real" independence should it prove necessary.

    Grimm is quite slick.  I saw him at the Staten Island Town Hall meeting and he was quite good.  He played an otherwise hostile crowd perfectly.  And was for the most part masterful at spinning his words.  (I have a draft of a diary I'll post on this eventually though it isn't really DK Elections material).  To have any chance against him we'll need the strongest most well-funded candidate possible.

    •  I just hope the recent scandal hurts him. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget

      Is McMahon still a likely candidate?  And obviously, if he runs again, he has to answer back to fraudulent political attacks this time.

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Thu May 05, 2011 at 09:40:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  As far as we know yes. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        He made the rounds to all the clubs at the start of the year (a highly unusual move given he has had a rocky relationship with a number of them) and everyone took this as a strong indication that he was looking to run again.  If I had to guess we probably won't hear much until after the off-year elections (DA and Borough President) this November.  Hopefully he'll tip his hand soon after that because any "plan b" is going to need time to organize and raise money.

        As for the Grimm scandal.  Don't hold your breath.  If it wasn't for the attention the New Yorker article got elsewhere the Staten Island Advance probably would never have even covered the story.  The same way the Advance ignored the widely circulating rumors about Fossella until the New York Daily News broke the story.  And it is doubtful it will ever be mentioned again unless Democrats choose to make it an issue.

        And that can be a dicey gamble.  Ideally you want to portray Grimm as an out of touch Washington insider.  If you move the debate to discussing his conduct while in the FBI he becomes a law enforcement officer in an area where many law enforcement officers live and where support for law enforcement officers runs high.

        You may pay more than you gain by going off message.

  •  Looking ahead, what are possibilities for NJ gov. (0+ / 0-)

    race in 2013? Is Cory Booker (Newark mayor) a possibility? Of course, he's not the heavyweight politician Christie is.

  •  It's amazing Christie keeps being touted as Pres. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    possibility (especially by Tweety) since I've never seen him make an appearance when he didn't consciously or subconsciously assume his bully persona. That and the rather cartoonish (and generaly unfair) physical contrast with a healthy president Obama would not go over well. And given concrens about the health of all presidents- physical considerations are valid, if unfortunate and to some extent unfair. At least Huckabee has tried to get in better condition at times.

    •  It's not unfair (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack

      in the sense of there being a legitimate medical question about how healthy Christie is. We all don't need to be as slim as Obama to be healthy, but I wouldn't be surprised if Christie's weight was close to the spot where it would be an issue for his health. He's a big guy in general, but he's also fat. (I say this as a person whose weight has gone up and down quite a bit in my life, by the way. I've gone through periods where I've looked like Obama and then looked like Christie.)

      But then, that's the least of Christie's problems. I don't know that much about him, but he does come across as a jerk, which wouldn't play so well outside New Jersey, and he doesn't seem to have any particular reason to be running.

      •  Christie's weight is irrelevant (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, David Nir, LordMike, DCCyclone

        to his chances of being President. He would never become President because he's a thin-skinned bully; he'd never make it through months of close media scrutiny.

        •  It might not be (0+ / 0-)

          that relevant to whether or not he wins, but there's nothing unfair about using it as a characteristic to determine whether someone should serve, which is the implication I was responding to.

          •  I guess I'm being a little stricter than usual (0+ / 0-)

            Because I do think things like appearance can affect electoral outcomes, but I'd really rather we not get into things like weight issues. I think it could upset people, and I don't think it sheds a whole lot of light on Christie's future prospects. So would you be okay with moving on here?

            Political Director, Daily Kos

            by David Nir on Thu May 05, 2011 at 08:47:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'd like to add one thing I think is fair... (0+ / 0-)

              Whether or not he's overweight or otherwise healthy, Christie's physical condition matters for his ability to campaign.

              It's accepted wisdom that running for President is physically extremely grueling, and you have to be in good shape to do it.  After all, Haley Barbour said way back when that you'd know he was thinking about it if he lost weight, and sure enough he then lost some weight while he got serious about the possibility.

              I don't think there's anything offensive or insulting about pointing this out, and it's certainly directly campaign related.

              Again, I have no idea about Christie's physical condition, this isn't a commentary on him.  I know he's been ridiculed at times for his weight, but I haven't paid attention to that.  What really matters is the fact that he's a temperantal jerk who doesn't wear well, and the last Q-poll showing his job approvals down to sub-50 and at break-even establishes that.  That , not his weight, is what makes him a laughable pick among the many Republican fantasy candidates.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu May 05, 2011 at 10:04:13 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I considered saying nothing at all, but (0+ / 0-)

              I didn't want to think I was blowing you off. And yes, I will move on from this topic.

  •  Ah, shit (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, borodino21

    Did Rep. McHenry get hold of my horrific North Carolina gerrymander that threw Reps. McIntyre and Kissell into a minority-majority district?

    I would be simultaneously honored and deeply, deeply ashamed.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu May 05, 2011 at 06:10:36 AM PDT

  •  Debate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    Is the Republican debate being aired live anywhere tonight? I'd really like to pop some popcorn and watch the entertainment.

    21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Thu May 05, 2011 at 06:16:28 AM PDT

  •  IN Senate (0+ / 0-)

    Looks like Roemer is leaving because of a commerce secretary post, not a Senate run. I did not expect him to run.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/...

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9. Was hoosierdem on SSP, but that username was already taken here :(

    by drhoosierdem on Thu May 05, 2011 at 06:19:32 AM PDT

    •  I didn't think so either. (0+ / 0-)

      I find it hard to believe an ambassadorship is preferable to a Cabinet Secretary-ship, when it comes to Gary Locke.

      23, Solid Liberal Democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

      by HoosierD42 on Thu May 05, 2011 at 06:22:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wow, he's getting Commerce? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      Buddy Roemer must be cursing right now. The name "Roemer" finally breaks into a news cycle, and it's associated with a Democrat who is taking a major job in the Obama administration.

      It's kind of like if President Obama named a guy named Fred Pawlenty to run the Consumer Protection Bureau, or tapped Janice Bachmann to serve as Deputy Press Secretary. It's just a tough break in our soundbite-driven ADD media. I mean hell, Obama's been president for two and a half years now, and news programs still mix his name up with "Osama" - and they're not even the same name!

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu May 05, 2011 at 07:29:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  OR-01: Avakian's all in, Wu's pressuring others (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, Goobergunch

    http://www.forestgrovenewstimes.com/...

    Highlights

    -- Avakian won't go back to the Labor Commish job (i.e. he's all in on the OR-01 race)
    -- Avakian's pushing single payer.
    -- Both Avakian and Wu are pushing other potential candidates to get in now
    -- Wu challenged Will Hobbs ('06 primary opponent) at a town hall, dissing Paul Ryan,
    -- Wu's positioning himself to the left of the President on financial reform, the late '10 tax cut deal
    -- Only one question at a local (Hillsboro -- home of Intel) town hall on Wu's problems.

    No R has filed. IIRC, the most prominent R option, Bruce Starr, said he won't run against Wu (whatever that means).

    Both candidates tacking left suggests that OR-01 will stay at least D+8 (current level) post redistricting. While I cheer progressives, I was hoping that some Ds might be given to OR-05 to make Kurt Schrader's life easier.

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Thu May 05, 2011 at 06:39:11 AM PDT

    •  This isn't shaping up ideally (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, jncca

      We really need people to coalesce around one other candidate to get rid of Wu in a primary; otherwise, our worst fears about him winning with a plurality against three others or something like that will happen.

      Solid LIberal Democrat, born and raised in VA-06, went to school in VA-05, currently living in Italy. My SSP username was the same.

      by GeoffreyVS on Thu May 05, 2011 at 06:58:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Unfortunately that would be illegal (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, borodino21

      If Oregon law didn't prohibit redistricting with partisan considerations in mind, Democrats would have unpacked OR-03 long ago.

      I actually kind of enjoy Republicans thinking they can win OR-05 (and, to a lesser extent, OR-01) each cycle and falling flat on their faces after outspending the Democrat and dumping resources from races that are actually winnable into the Portland suburbs. Newsflash, Republicans: it's never gonna happen. Last year was your shot. The trends are not in your favor. The East Bay-ification of Clackamas and Marion counties is well underway, and guess what happens as voter registration creeps up among the growing Latino population along the I-5 corridor and in Hillsboro? Well, probably the same thing that happened in New Mexico, and is happening in Arizona now.

      It'll be a good map, whether the leg passes it or Secy. Brown has to draw it. I feel good about this one.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu May 05, 2011 at 07:36:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Shifts are possible within Oregon Law (0+ / 0-)

        Drawing Wu' s home out of OR-01 would likely push some of OR-03 (Multnomah Co) into OR-05.

        And that would all be within the "communities of interest" standard.

        You just can't say that it's for political purposes.

        I hope; therefore, I can live.

        by tietack on Thu May 05, 2011 at 07:39:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You can actually draw an OR-05... (0+ / 0-)

          That consists of every precinct in Clackamas, Marion, and Polk counties and has a population deviance of ~500 or so. That was one of the features of the map I submitted to Bonamici for consideration, as was the elimination of Multnomah County precincts from OR-01.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Thu May 05, 2011 at 07:43:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  such a map of OR-05 (0+ / 0-)

            would not be great for Democrats.

            "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Thu May 05, 2011 at 12:00:18 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It'd still be fools' gold (0+ / 0-)

              Bruun was probably the most serious, disciplined candidate for OR-05 in quite a few cycles, and 2010 was obviously the worst cycle for Democrats in a very, very long time. Rep. Schrader won by five points.

              The trends are favorable for Democrats. Is it a pro-Democratic gerrymander? No, but those are illegal. I do think that Schrader could keep the seat blue, and if Republicans happen to spend way too much money unsuccessfully trying to flip it, well, I'm not complaining.

              At this point, OR-05 is like Team Blue's equivalent of AK-AL. You can huff and you can puff but you can't blow that house down.

              Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Thu May 05, 2011 at 04:26:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah it wouldn't be that bad, (0+ / 0-)

                but it'd have a Republican lean.  You're an OR-01 native.  I'm an OR-05 native.  I know Clackamas and Marion Counties and I know that'd be a tough district.  Kurt could hold it down, but then his first district he won in 1996 would be impossible today.  He's just a strong contender.  If he left or we had another year like 2010 we'd be in big trouble.

                "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                by James Allen on Thu May 05, 2011 at 06:42:13 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  alright fellow swingnuts (13+ / 0-)

    I finely broke down and decided it was time to make a dke account. I missed you guys too much! I have a detailed analysis of the republican legislative redistricting plan from yesterday diary. I will cross post the seat-by-seat from rrh this afternoon after work

  •  OK, I'll ask: WTF's "WATN"? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, David Nir

    One of my all-time favorite websites, The Free Dictionary - Acronyms, sez it's "Western Australia Tourism Network".  Somehow, I doubt that's what's meant here.

    I'll take my answer off the air....

    "Push the button, Max!" Jack Lemmon as Professor Fate, The Great Race

    by bartcopfan on Thu May 05, 2011 at 06:59:38 AM PDT

  •  NV-Gov, MO redistricting (0+ / 0-)
    NV-Gov: PPP tested a rematch between new Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval and his 2010 opponent Rory Reid. In a big exception to PPP's other similar polls, Sandoval suffers almost no slippage, winning by 51-41. Tom Jensen says that the weak Rory Reid's favorables have managed to drop even further than where they were last November.

    That PAC scandal couldn't have helped.
    Missouri: The GOP-held legislature over-rode Gov. Jay Nixon's veto yesterday, meaning their map will become law. A fuller post will follow later today.

    Over-ridden with the help of some Democrats. Cleaver showing how influential he is in parts of the state, in a way Russ Carnahan isn't.
  •  More foreign elections today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, Goobergunch, borodino21

    The local parliaments in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are having elections today, along with a referendum on Alternative Vote replacing the First Past the Post system for House of Commons elections.

    I haven't followed these elections too closely, but polling suggests the referendum will fail by a large margin (it's become a referendum on Nick Clegg, apparently), the SNP will win in Scotland, and Labor will win in Wales, though I'm not sure if either will get a majority. I haven't heard anything about how Northern Ireland will go.

  •  I have to say... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv

    That the adjective "weak" really describes Rory Reid quite possibly better than any other word, on so many levels.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu May 05, 2011 at 08:32:15 AM PDT

  •  MI-Sen (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, KingofSpades, jj32, jncca
    Former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land has decided against running for the U.S. Senate next year.

    Land said today in a statement on her Facebook page that she has decided against joining the Republican field to take on Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow.

    http://www.freep.com/...

    So the two big names, Hoekstra and Land, are out. Not sure who else the GOP has to run against Stabenow.  

    •  I think Walker, Snyder, and Kasich (5+ / 0-)

      really screwed the pooch with their heavy-handed moves, and the home state candidates know it. This will probably boost Dems throughout the Rust Belt next year.

      •  I always assumed Sen. Brown would be (0+ / 0-)

        a tough hold but he is a pretty solid lock for re-election it seems.  Hell, I'll even go out on a limb here and say the GOP won't get their preferred candidates in many races because either their GOPers were just elected in 2010 or the ones with experience now want to enjoy GOP majorities at the state and local level before running against an Obama turn-out machine.

    •  That's unexpected. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blueonyx, tietack, itskevin, jncca

      I thought either her or Hoekstra would run since that news some time ago that they'd defer to one another on this.

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Thu May 05, 2011 at 10:22:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I just don't think Land has the fight in her. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, SaoMagnifico, jncca

        I don't think she's competitive enough for such a high profile race.  Nobody pays that much attention to SoS.  The fact that she wouldn't make a decision until Hoekstra decided first showed she didn't want to run in a competitive race.  She made a mistake running for lieutenant governor with Bouchard.  She should have run for MI-3 when Rep. Ehlers retired.  With her name recognition, she probably would have easily won.

        I believe McCotter is the only representative to not officially announce that he's running for re-election.  If he runs for the Senate, he would be a horrible candidate for the GOP.    

    •  Saul Anuzis? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blueonyx

      I think he might run. What about Rep Candace Miller?

      •  Miller has said she's running for re-election (0+ / 0-)

        I guess Saul could run but he wouldn't be a good candidate.

      •  If they're down to Anuzis... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        drhoosierdem

        They're screwed.

        This is kind of like the Senate race in Ohio last year, when a weak-looking candidate in a competitive state somehow managed to scare off every serious Democrat.

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Thu May 05, 2011 at 04:29:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm definitely curious to see how (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ndrwmls10

          Portman is approached in 2016, if he does in fact run again. Toomey, Johnson, and Kirk will certainly be top targets. Given the trends in North Carolina, Burr will probably be one, too. Rand Paul might be, depending on how he approaches governing. But people like Kelly Ayotte and Rob Portman are genuine question marks.

          •  If it's a Democratic wave in (0+ / 0-)

            New Hampshire I could see her loosing like John Sununu. Of course it would require the wave and a very strong Democrat.

            19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

            by ndrwmls10 on Thu May 05, 2011 at 06:18:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  She probably will be a tough incumbent to beat. (0+ / 0-)

              This is one of the reasons why I want us to get better at electing Democratic senators in red states. It is, in a lot of ways, a pure numbers game, and each time we let the other side win in a purple state, we make it less likely we take that seat when it's up again, perhaps even a lot less likely. This is one reason why I want us to try for the seats in states like Mississippi and Alabama. We are almost certainly going to get very conservative Democrats, but a Ben Nelson or a Gene Taylor-style Democrat is a lot better than a Republican.

  •  CO (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    It looks like Mike Coffman ends up with a more competitive district and CO-3 becomes the state's swing district. CO-4 looks like it is more winnable by shedding the plains counties to CO-5. This map doesn't look too bad.

  •  Ultimate "Some Dude" victory in Quebec (7+ / 0-)

    I stumble on the story of Ruth Ellen Brosseau yesterday.  The new MP for Berthier—Maskinongé.  

    Due to the believed uncompetitiveness of the riding, The NDP couldn't find anyone local to run for the seat, so they ran a paper candidate who:

    - Was a single mom working as an assistant manager at a college bar
    - Lived in Gatineau, on the other end of the province (Ottawa area)
    - Did not campaign, at all
    - Took a vacation to Vegas during the run-up to the election
    - DOES NOT EVEN SPEAK FRENCH (The riding is >95% Francophone)

    and yet she still beat the BQ incumbent by over 10 percentage points.

    I guess it just shows the extent to which Quebeckers want the bloc out.  Canadian elections are more driven by the party leader and label anyway and have less of an incumbent effect than our own.

  •  Fellow Swingnuts! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, drhoosierdem

    I've collected some tips for our transition in this diary

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Thu May 05, 2011 at 12:07:13 PM PDT

  •  Some WI news (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, James Allen, LordMike, DCCyclone

    Well it is official, it will be Pasch vs. Darling in the 8th SD.
    http://shorewood.patch.com/...
    Due to Darling's position and the fact that it will likely be the most expensive race this summer (Darling already has over 400,000 in hand) this could turn out to be the marquis recall election.  This is compounded in that this is in the Milwaukee media market, which means tons of coverage by the right-wing talk radio. So this race will get a ton of exposure.  Alas, it seems as if Darling is in a better position than Olsen or Harsdorf, the tossups, but Pasch is a superb opponent.

    Additionally, the State Dem party is alleging fraud (what a reversal) against the efforts to recall Dem senators. http://www.wisdems.org/...
    I do not know what to make of it except if true and if there is more than enough to disqualify the recalls (at least against Holperin) it would make the Democrats job much easier this summer.

  •  Anyone (0+ / 0-)

    who just tuned into Canadian politics these last few weeks (like myself) can read a pretty extensive article series on the campaign.They've only released the first few parts but it's still a good read. The 1st part of the series deals with the how the Liberals really lost the election, before it was even called!

    Stephen Harper on the rebound was a dangerous character. On May 13, 2009, the Conservatives launched a multi-million-dollar ad campaign against the new Liberal leader. The long-time expat bon vivant was “just visiting,” the ads warned. “He [Michael Ignantief] didn’t come back for you.”

    “They say that we try to portray Ignatieff in our ads and so on as a weak and flailing professor,” the war room staffer said. “No, that’s how we portrayed Dion. Dion was weak, you know, Dion was ‘not a leader.’ We’ve never said Michael Ignatieff isn’t a leader. We’ve never called him weak. And we’ve never called him a flip-flopper. Even when he changes his mind, we don’t say he’s a flip-flopper. Michael Ignatieff, in our narrative, is a political opportunist who is calculating, who will do and say anything to get elected.

    “He’s a schemer. When he says one thing and then he changes his mind the next week, it’s not because he’s indecisive and a flip-flopper. It’s because he’s an opportunist who will say different things to different people. I don’t think we’ve even used the phrase, even internally, ‘He’s a malicious human being.’ But that’s kind of the sentiment we’re getting at. With Dion, we were trying to portray him as weak. You can’t trust him to lead us out of the economic recovery because he’s a weak man. With Ignatieff, it’s ‘He’s a bad man,’ right? He’s someone you don’t want your daughter to marry, right?”

    http://www2.macleans.ca/...

  •  carl lewis (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, itskevin, SaoMagnifico

    on appeal, the judge orders his name to be printed on the ballot

  •  Info on UK elections (0+ / 0-)

    As previously mentioned, today has some important races in the UK.  The BBC's doing some good live-blogging for anyone interested in following along.

    Here's a link to national coverage: http://www.bbc.co.uk/...

    This one focuses on Scotland: http://news.bbc.co.uk/...

    Here's Wales: http://news.bbc.co.uk/...

    Finally, here's a timeline of when they expect results to be reported.  It should start about 6:30 Eastern: http://www.bbc.co.uk/...

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Thu May 05, 2011 at 03:12:13 PM PDT

  •  Minnesota Republican map. 1/5. Northern Minnesota (0+ / 0-)

    *Edit: This got a lot longer than I was anticipating, very quickly. so I am going to break it up into a few posts (I will try to get them all tonight)
    I will preface this with a few things. First, this district plan is not going to be signed by Dayton, nor should it be. Second, I don't see a distinction between the A and B halves of the districts, so I will assume North is A, and South is B (or West is A, and East is B) for the sake of this posting. The calculations I am doing are rough estimates, as I am not going to plug this beast into DRA, nor count precinct level data. Third, the districts only roughly correspond to the current districts (there are a lot of changes to the numbering, so I will only comment on who lives there, as opposed to numerical incumbents. Fifth, this is in no way a totally comprehensive analysis, as I don't know a lot of the intricateness about a lot of the freshmen members.

    First district:
    Two freshmen Republicans in the house, interestingly, both house members live in the A district. Both are much more DFL locally than federally, but even considering that, Obama won B by a few points, and lost A by a few. The DFL state senator is a long term incumbent, and will not lose until the day he dies or retire.

    Projected house count: 1 DFL, 1 R
    Projected senate count: 1 DFL

    Second district: This district moves a lot, but the same incumbents (kinda, as Bemidji has two representatives). Freshman Republican in the house, in a bad part of the district, as he lives in the college town of Bemidji, and a DFLer in Bemidji as well, and incumbency is important. Incumbent DFLer has quite a bit of tenure in 2B, but put in a more hostile district though. Incumbent DFL senator with tenure, not likely to lose
    House: 2 DFL, 1 R, 1 Toss-up
    Senate: 2 DFL

    Third district: THIS IS THE DISTRICT I WAS BORN IN This is getting into the north woods, and Iron Range. The 3rd shifts quite a bit, and the Republican freshman currently in 3A is now in another district. 3A is likely DFL with no incumbent. 3B is Safe DFL. Safe DFL in the senate.
    On a personal note, current 3A representative Tom Anzelc was the man that I was a full time staffer for (and an intern on his initial election effort in 2006). Also, the youngest representative, 25 year old Carly Melin will be in 3B.
    House: 4 DFL, 1 R, 1 Toss-up
    Senate 3 DFL

    Fourth district: This district includes literally none of the current 4th. It is Iron Range and Arrow Head. Both seats are safe DFL, as is the senate seat. Not exactly where the houses are, as St. Louis County is split, but there are at least 3 DFL representatives here, and one senator
    House: 6 DFL, 1 R, 1 Toss-up
    Senate: 4 DFL

    Fifth district: Republicans managed to slice and dice and pack DFLers everywhere else in northern Minnesota, and this is their payoff. There is a Cass/Hubbard/Wadena/Crow Wing district, which not so coincidentally are the only place you can find even moderately Republican voters (of any large number) in the northern half of the state. Both of these house districts SHOULD elect Republicans, as should the senate seat, but this area still has some old loyalties to the Farmer-Labor brand, so they aren't safe seats, but the are probably all R+4 or so.
    House: 6 DFL, 3 R, 1 Toss-up
    Senate 4 DFL, 1 R

    Sixth district: I really hate this district, as it really does extend through two very very different communities of interest unnecessarily. But the effect is that my Grandparent's home district is put into a Likely DFL district, and the southern portion is a Likely R, and putting these two areas that have nearly nothing in common together gives a swing Senate district.
    House: 7 DFL, 4 R, 1 Toss-up
    Senate: 4 DFL, 1 R, 1 Toss-up

    Seventh district: Suburban Duluth, and I-35. The northern portion, is Safe DFL, the Southern portion is lean DFL, but the incumbent is popular, and he and his mother have represented the area for a long time, so HE is safe, lean DFL if he leaves (he won't, unless he runs for something else, as he is young). Senate district is Safe DFL
    House: 9 DFL, 4 R, 1 Toss-up
    Senate: 5 DFL, 1 R, 1 Toss-up

    Eighth district: My brother lives in this district.  Careful DFL pack of Duluth, making sure none of those 75-80% DFL precincts leak into any neighboring districts, just in case. All three Duluth DFLers are safe, without question.
    House: 11 DFL, 4 R, 1 Toss-up
    Senate: 6 DFL, 1 R, 1 Toss-up

    Ninth district: Republicans did something very sneaky here. They packed the very liberal town in Moorhead into half of the district, and the more marginal parts of Clay County in the rest(Although, ironically, the Republican representative lives in Moorhead proper, so she may want to move to the other district). Senate seat is safe though.
    House: 12 DFL, 4 R, 2 Toss-up
    Senate 7 DFL, 1 R, 1 Toss-up

    Tenth district: Republican stronghold of Ottertail County is given it's own district (obviously, Republicans drew the map). All of these seats are likely R
    House: 12 DFL. 6 R, 2 Toss-up
    by: OGGoldy @ Tue May 03, 2011 at 19:18:56 PM EDT
    [ Reply ]
    Here is my take: Farmland
    Part 2.
    Same disclaimer as above applies. We are getting into the Republican portion of central Minnesota, this is the area that gives MN-7 it's high R+PVI
    Eleventh district: This district is pretty Republican, although a Peterson-like DFLer (The "F" if you will), could win here. The Alexandria area was represented by a DFLer before the 2010 elction, and the western portion of the district is very firmly locally-DFL (although only marginally at the higher levels). I think Republicans will get caught with their hand in the cookie jar here looking to lock down all three seats, and they could very well lose all 3.
    House: 12 DFL, 7 R, 3 Toss-up
    Senate: 7 DFL, 2 R, 2 Toss-up

    Twelfth district: Lakes country. This district is full of million dollar cabins on some of the most beautiful chains of lakes you'll find anywhere in the world. A combination of conservative businessmen retirees, and latte liberals. The Brainard portion of the district, and has a solid DFL representative now. The rest of the district would be a tough sell, and would likely be a Republican hold regardless. The senate seat is probably Republican in most years
    House: 13 DFL, 8 R, 3 Toss-up
    Senate 7 DFL, 3 R, 2 Toss-up

    Thirteenth district: Very Republican portions of nothing but farmland and bible thumpers. Three safe R seats
    House: 13th DFL, 10 R, 3 Toss-up
    Senate: 7 DFL, 4 R, 2 Toss-up

    Fourteenth district: Republican portions of Searns County, mixed in with a bit of cracking the outskirts of St. Cloud, which comes nto play n district 15. Not enough to change the partisan makeup. 3 Safe R seats
    House 13 DFL, 12 R, 3 Toss-up
    Senate: 7 DFL, 5 R, 2 Toss-up

    Fifteenth district: This is the "Let's cut St. Cloud in half so we don't risk Terryl Clark making a comeback. This takes in the center-left City of St. Cloud, and feeds it to the very Republican areas of Benton County, and sotuhern Stearns County. For good measure, they make sure that St. Cloud probably can't support a DFLer in the house (which would be very easy to do if put into one dstrict). 3 Republican seats most likely, but Clark or someone like her could potentially win, but not in an average year.
    House 13 DFL, 14 R, 3 Toss-up
    Senate: 7 DFL, 6 R, 2 Toss-up

    Sixteenth district: This is a bizzare district, but it isn't necessarily bad. It is a giant COI (Although someone might disagree with me, I feel that farmers are all pretty much the same). But this district is inherently swingy, and neither Obama nor McCain got more than 53% in any of the counties, and they split them down the middle (and not the middle where A-B is separated). This one will swing with the wind, all of them.
    House: 13 DFL, 14 R, 5 Toss-up
    Senate: 7 DFL, 6 R, 3 Toss-up

    Seventeenth district. This district is one of the ones designed to expand exurban influence well beyond the limites of population. The eastern half of this district is blood red exurbs, and the western part is swingy farmland. So that makes the senate district safe R
    House: 13 DFL, 15 R, 6 Toss-up
    Senate: 7 DFL, 7 R, 3 Toss-up

    Eighteenth district: This one sort of surprises me. It is a Republican/swing area of the state. But the Republican part is the western part, and the swingy part is the eastern. They could have split it north/south and had 2 likely R seats to go with their likely senate seat. But they went 1 Safe R, and one swing district
    House: 13 DFL, 16 R, 7 Toss-up
    Senate: 7 DFL, 8 R, 3 Toss-up

    Nineteenth district: Republicans are trying to stretch the influence of their voters here. They feed Nicolet County (center-left, to the most conservative areas around. Nicolet is not small, and will have a say, but that house seat is at least lean-R, but by no means safe. The other house seat is safe.
    House: 13 DFL, 18 R, 7 Toss-up
    Senate: 7 DFL, 9 R, 3 Toss-up

    Twentieth district: Republicans are trying to have a chance in the area by splitting the Mankato area as much as humanly possible. And they even split the city itself within the 20th to maybe have a shot at one of the house seats. It won't work, the area is just too blue. 3 D seats. On a side note, this is a huge dick move trying to minimize Mankato's voting power, but it will backfire
    House 15 DFL, 18 R, 7 Toss-up
    Senate: 8 DFL, 9 R, 3 Toss-up

  •  Minnesota Republican map, 2/5. Exurban/southern (0+ / 0-)

    Twenty-first district: This district tries to take in the moderate areas of Blue Earth County, and the more moderate/conservative areas around it. That makes the northern part of this district swingy, but the Southern district, dominated by Albert Lea, will be at least lean-DFL. The senate district is a toss-up, if not tilt DFL (I will count it as a toss-up here)
    House 16 DFL, 18 R, 8 Toss-up
    Senate: 8 DFL, 9 R, 4 Toss-up
    Twenty-second district: Basically this is Steele, Dodge, and Rice counties. Rice county being the northern half (Fairbault is a pretty liberal place), and Douglas/Steel being the other half. Fairbault's will be a DFL seat, and the other will be a likely Republican seat. Overall, I would say that the senate seat would have an ever so slight DFL tilt in an average year, but I will count it as a toss-up. (Republicans are trying to minimize DFL senate seats with a map like this)
    House: 17 DFL, 19 R, 8 Toss-up
    Senate: 8 DFL, 9 R, 5 Toss-up

    Twenty-third district, and twenty-fourth districts: I am doing these two together, because they are a blatant gerrymander, and maybe the more egregious part of this map. Rochester is split 4(!!!!!) ways. Rochester is becoming a DFL stronghold (strange, considering it is very ancestrally Republican, but things change). This means that 23A is a likely Republican seat from this cracking, and 23B is a safe DFL seat. The senate seat in 23 is a likely-DFL seat. (Communities of interest be damned!). In 24, it seems even stranger, as both seats appear on the surface to be likely DFL seats. So Republican's sliced and diced a major city to get a grand total of 1 House seat (that isn't even 100% safe). IOKIYAR, but wahtever.
    House: 20 DFL, 20 R, 8 Toss-up
    Senate: 10 DFL, 9 R, 5 Toss-up

    Twenty-fifth district: This is the DFL portion of SE Minnesota along the Mississippi River. Although Republicans did manage to carve out a toss-up seat in Wabasha somehow.
    House: 21 DFL, 20 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 11 DFL, 9 R, 5 Toss-up

    Twenty-sixth district: Much like the 25th, although no toss-up seats really. But neither DFL seat is truly "safe."
    House: 23 DFL, 20 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 12 DFL, 9 R, 5 Toss-up

    Twenty-seventh district: Republican exurbs, nothing to see here.
    House: 23 DFL, 22 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 12 DFL, 10 R, 5 Toss-up

    Twenty-eighth district: More Republican exurbs, although this one extends further into rural area to expand the influence of exurbs (shocker).
    House: 23 DFL, 24 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 12 DFL, 11 R, 5 Toss-up

    Twenty-ninth: Exurban district that that extends inward to suck up center-left Anoka city. Safe R northern seat, likely R for the southern one, but that House district is trending the wrong way for Republicans. At the senate level it won't matter, but the southern house district will be toss-up at worse for the DFL soon.
    House: 23 DFL, 26 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 12 DFL, 12 R, 5 Toss-up

    Thirtieth district: Another exurban district sneaking in to take marginal suburbs (This time Coon Rapids). All are Safe or Likely R, but like the 29th, the southern district is going the wrong way for Republicans.
    House: 23 DFL, 28 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 12 DFL, 13 R, 5 Toss-up

    Thirty-first district: Much like above, this feeds central Anoka county to Chisago County. I don't see these seats slipping away like the previous two, however. Lino Lakes and Centerville are still conservative.
    House: 23 DFL, 30 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 12 DFL, 14 R, 5 Toss-up

    Thirty-second district: More exurbs, although these aren't eating marginal areas. Quite Republican
    House: 23 DFL, 32 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 12 DFL, 14 R, 5 Toss-up

    Thirty-third district: This is a district designed to make a competative senate district, where there should be a DFL district based on COI. DFL stronghold of Brooklyn Park, and Republican bastion of Maple Grove make for a battle royal in the senate.
    House: 24 DFL, 33 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 12 DFL, 14 R, 6 Toss-up

  •  Minnesota Republican map. 3/5 (0+ / 0-)

    Thirty-fourth district: I work in this district Henepin County exurbs, with some extra Red flavor added out west for good measure. Republicans all
    House: 24 DFL, 35 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 12 DFL, 16 R, 6 Toss-up
    Thirty-fifth district: This district is about the border between R and DFL meet in Hennepin County. Currently, the districts are represented by Republicans, but their hold is probobly tenuous. They didn't add any blue areas for that reason. These are Republican seats for now, but could flip by decade's end.
    House: 24 DFL, 27 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 12 DFL, 17 R, 6-Toss-up

    Thirty-sixth district: DFL suburbs in Hennepin County, although Republicans may have an outside shot at the western district in a 2010-like year.
    House 26 DFL, 27 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 13 DFL, 17 R, 6 Toss-up

    Thirty-seventh district: Brooklyn Cetner and Brooklyn Park are as blue as the ocean. Republicans would ignore this district.
    House: 28 DFL, 27 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 14 DFL, 17 R, 6 Toss-up

    Thirty-eighth district: THIS IS MY HOME DISTRICT. I also went to high school here after relocating to the cities with my family as a teenager. I bought my parents house last year, so this used to be my parents district too. I actually dated the daughter of the State Representative here, Caroline Laine. Republicans tried to pack the southern district to make the northern district marginal. Not sure that is going to protect the Fridley Freshman, as the areas they added are not conservative, although not as blue as the eastern direction the current district has. It won't be enough though, as it is just hostile territory for a Republican.
    House: 30 DFL, 27 R, 9 Toss-up
    Senate: 15 DFL, 17 R, 6 toss-up

    Thirty-ninth district: This is another Republican effort to swallow DFL areas by a Republican leaning city. In this case, Spring Lake Park being fed to Blaine. I am not sure if that would be all that effective though, as Blaine is the quintessential swingy area. But for now, one seat is Likely R, one is toss-up, and the Senate seat is Republican
    House: 30 DFL, 28 R, 10 Toss-up
    Senate: 15 DFL, 18 R, 6 Toss-up

    Fortieth district: This is a quite afluent district, and is very swingy. The districts are probably lean-R in the north, lean-DFL in the south, and toss-up in the senate, but I will count them as all toss-ups.
    House: 30 DFL, 28 R, 12 Toss-up
    Senate: 15 DFL, 18 R, 7 Toss-up

    Forty-first district: DFL Ramsey County suburbs of Roseville and New Brighton.
    House: 32 DFL, 28 R, 12 Toss-up
    Senate: 16 DFL, 18 R, 7 Toss-up

    Forty-second district: This district has a very weird, gerrymandered shape. It was designed to balance out the DFL areas with more conservative rural portions of Washington County. 1 DFL, 1 R, Toss-up seante
    House: 33 DFL, 29 R, 12 Toss-up
    Senate: 16 DFL, 18 R, 8 Toss-up

    Forty-third district: Ah yes, Washington County sans southern farm portions. This is the the definition of swing turf.
    House: 33 DFL, 29 R, 14 Toss-up
    Senate: 16 DFL, 18 R, 9 Toss-up

    Forty-fourth district: Another exurban districtthat sucks up rural areas to expand exurban influence.
    House: 33 DFL, 31 R, 14 Toss-up
    Senate: 16 DFL, 19 R, 9 Toss-up

    Forty-fifth district: Very very wealthy district in SW Hennepin County. This is without a doubt the richest district in the state, and relatively Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.
    House: 33 DFL, 33 R, 14 Toss-up
    Senate: 16 DFL, 19 R, 10 Toss-up

    Fourty-sixth district: Another wealthy district, but this area is represented by DFLers, and Minnetonka (Home of Tonka Trucks) is actually pretty blue, considering the wealth. I would put this at a DFL and a toss-up in the house, and a toss-up in the senate
    House: 34 DFL, 33 R, 15 Toss-up
    Senate: 16 DFL, 19 R, 11 Toss-up

    Forty-seventh district: Hopkins and St. Louis Park. Very liberal suburbs (St. Louis park actually has a significant Jewish population, as odd as that is).
    House: 36 DFL, 33 R, 15 Toss-up
    Senate: 17 DFL, 19 R, 11 Toss-up

    Forty-eighth district: Edina and Bloomington. Edina is swingy, but Bloomington is a DFL stronghold.
    House: 37 DFL, 33 R, 16 Toss-up
    Senate: 18 DFL, 19 R, 11 Toss-up

    forty-ninth district: Bloomington and Richfield. DFL territory.
    House: 39 DFL, 33 R, 15 Toss-up
    Senate: 19 DFL, 19 R, 11 Toss-up
    by: OGGoldy @ Tue May 03, 2011 at 21:21:58 PM EDT
    [ Reply ]
    Here is my take: surubrs/urban
    Fiftieth district: DFL suburbs south of St. Paul
    House: 41 DFL, 33 R, 15 Toss-up
    Senate: 20 DFL, 19 R, 11 Toss-up
    Fifty-first district: Hard to say really, because this part of Washington County has liberal and conservative regions (Bachmann lives here, for instance). I'll call them toss-up, but without doing more indepth research with precincts, that's shooting from the hip, honestly
    House: 41 DFL, 33 R, 17 Toss-up
    Senate: 20 DFL, 19 R, 12 Toss-up

    Fifty-second district: This is a GOP masterpiece. It slices the liberal city college areas in Rice, the very balanced LeSuaur county with the blood-red portions in Carver County. This is a cutthroat partisan gerrymander of the 1st degree. 3 R seats, but not safe.
    House: 41 DFL, 35 R, 17 Toss-up
    Senate: 20 DFL, 20 R, 12 Toss-up

    Fifty-third district: Scott County, perhaps the most Republican in the state.
    House: 41 DFL, 37 R, 17 Toss-up
    Senate: 20 DFL, 21 R, 12 Toss-up

    Fifty-fourth district: Dakota County. Very swingy.
    House: 41 DFL, 37 R, 19 Toss-up
    Senate: 20 DFL, 21 R, 13 Toss-up

    Fifty-fifth district: Swingy areas of Dakota county again. Perhaps a tick to the left of the 54th
    House: 41 DFL, 37 R, 21 Toss-up
    Senate: 20 DFL, 21 R, 14 Toss-up

    fifty-sixth district: More swingy parts of Dakota County. This plan could really backfire in this area of the state
    House: 41 DFL, 37 R, 23 Toss-up
    Senate: 20 DFL, 21 R, 15 Toss-up

    fifty-seventh district: This is a Republican area of Dakota County, but could easily shift in a wave, or marginally DFL year.
    House: 41 DFL, 39 R, 23 Toss-up
    Senate: 20 DFL, 22 R, 15 Toss-up

    fifty-eighth district: Another Republican plan extending an exurban district to take up marginal rural areas (Goodhue). 1-0-1 R in the house, R in the senate
    House: 42 DFL, 51 R, 26 Toss-up
    Senate: 20 DFL, 24 R, 15 Toss-up

  •  Okay, to be honest 4/5 (0+ / 0-)

    I haven't yet done an analysis on 59-67. This is urban Minneapolis and St. Paul, and all safe DFL, with PVIs in the D+20 to D+30 range. 5/5 will come later, if I have time tonight to finish this.

  •  KS-3, MO-Everything (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem

    Kansas City is getting a major fiber optic network investment by Google that will put the area at 1gig a second for roughly 500k people.  (Article states current average high-speed internet service is 10megs a second.)  Very interesting to see how this will effect job growth and population changes as the idea for this type of investment is to get tech companies the bandwidth they need for more advanced applications.  Should be interesting to watch this metro area over the next decade and hopefully we'll see some movement in KS-3 and statewide races in MO.

    Another fun business effecting politics I just remembered is that the Iron Range in Northern Minnesota is getting the country's first ore to steel complex.  It'll create 500 permanent jobs, which, once fully completed and developed, has got to net the DFL several hundred if not 1k votes.  Oberstar lost by 4500.

  •  Fayard running for LA SoS, not Gov (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.nola.com/...

    Caroline Fayard, who won 43% in the special election for Louisiana Lt. Gov last year is running for Secretary of State.  If Dems are going to pick up any statewide office in Louisiana this year (and that's a big if) this is probably the one.  The incumbent Tom Shedler isn't particularly well known according to a recent poll, and has at least one not-too well Republican challenger State Rep. and former Dem Walker Hines.

    With Fayard out Dems don't have an obvious candidate for the unenviable task of taking on Bobby Jindal.  Rich guy John Georges is apparently running for some statewide office so I guess he could be the Dem candidate.  For those who don't know Georges he was a Bush fundraiser in 2004, an indy Gov candidate in 2007 who won 15%, and a Dem candidate for New Orleans Mayor in 2010 who won 9%.

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Thu May 05, 2011 at 05:55:34 PM PDT

  •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

    Lt. Gov. Krolicki has passed on running for NV-02.  He seemed to be the obvious choice.  It's looking like it will be GOP chairman Mark Amodei vs. Sharon Angle for the Republican votes, unless even more pile in.

  •  Oh Charlie..... (0+ / 0-)

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9. Was hoosierdem on SSP, but that username was already taken here :(

    by drhoosierdem on Fri May 06, 2011 at 05:10:57 AM PDT

    •  Dude, this is the second time (0+ / 0-)

      A politician has accidently given out a phone sex line's number in like, a month.

      Although this isn't quite as funny as when Randy Hopper did it.

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