Virginia is up next in my series on redistricting under the Wyoming Rule. Under the Wyoming Rule, VA would see its delegation grow from 11 to 14.
Texas has been done previously.
Virginia state map
VA-01 Rob Wittman (R-Montross)
Rep. Wittman's district remains in eastern Virginia. It no longer reaches into Prince William County and by losing those Obama districts, it becomes more Republican.
44% Obama 56% McCain
R+11
VA-03 Open
This is a new Richmond and central Virginia-based AA-majority district. The new VA-03 no longer winds its way down to Norfolk; therefore the current congressman Bobby Scott is not in this district. The district instead turns south and toward the middle of the state to absorb the AA voters in Greenville, Brunswick, and Sussex Counties. This should be a safe Democratic pick up.
50.6% AA
70% Obama 30% McCain
D+14
VA-05 Robert Hurt (R-Chatham)
VA-05 remains a south central Virginia district that no longer has that finger extending north. It also loses Mecklenburg and Lunenburg counties on the east. The result? A much safer district.
43% Obama 57% McCain
R+11
VA-06 Bob Goodlatte (R-Roanoke)
Rep. Goodlatte's western Virginia compacts quite a bit. This compacting results in a district that is not quite as friendly as it once was. Republicans still should be able to hold onto this district however.
45% Obama 55% McCain
R+11
VA-07 Open
Eric Cantor no longer lives in this Richmond-based district, so it becomes an open seat. It takes in most of the white voters in and around Richmond and central Virginia. It is expected to be a safe Republican seat.
43% Obama 57% McCain
R+12
VA-09 Morgan Griffith (R-Salem)
The rural southwestern district stays pretty much the same. Rep. Griffith doesn't live in the district, but then again, he doesn't live in the district now. I assume he still runs here, in a district that is slightly more friendly.
39% Obama 61% McCain
R+13
VA-13 Eric Cantor (R-Culpeper)
Rep. Cantor gets a new district in the northern part of the state. It is a few points more Republican than his current district, so he would have no complaints about running here.
44% Obama 56% McCain
R+11
NoVA
VA-08 Jim Moran (D-Arlington)
Rep. Moran's district remains very similar to what it is today. It contains all of Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church, and part of Fairfax County. Safe Democratic.
68% Obama 32% McCain
D+15
VA-10 Frank Wolf (R-Vienna)
Rep. Wolf actually lives in the newly-created 14th district, but I assume he'd run in this much friendlier nearby district. Due to the new district created in Fairfax County, VA-10 gets pushed out away from DC. Of course, this makes it more Republican.
49% Obama 51% McCain
R+4
VA-11 Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax)
Rep. Connolly's district gets pushed to southern Fairfax County and part of Prince William. He would be very happy with his much safer district.
61% Obama 39% McCain
D+5
VA-14 Open
A new Dem-leaning, though not completely safe, district has been created in Fairfax County (with a sliver of Loudon thrown in). As said previously, Frank Wolk could run here, but my guess is he'd go for his old 10th district.
58% Obama 42% McCain
D+3
VA Beach
VA-02 Scott Rigell (R-Virginia Beach)
Rep. Rigell's southeastern Virginia district contains the eastern shore districts as well as parts of Virginia Beach and Norfolk. Due to adding a new minority-majority district in the area, the district becomes safer for Republicans.
49% Obama 51% McCain
R+7
VA-04 Randy Forbes (R-Chesapeake)
VA-04 gets pushed eastward to accomodate the two AA-majority districts. This should suit Rep. Forbes just fine as VA-04 becomes decidedly more Republican.
43% Obama 57% McCain
R+11
VA-12 Bobby Scott (D-Newport News)
Rep. Scott is in a newly-drawn, fairly compact, AA-majority district in Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Newport News, and Hampton. It's not quite as safe as his old district, but the couple points difference won't hurt him.
52% AA
72% Obama 28% McCain
D+16
So there you have Virginia under the Wyoming Rule. Things turn out quite a bit better for Democrats here than they did in Texas. Dems essentially pick up 2 of the 3 open seats, although nearly all of the Republican seats may have been put out of reach for the time being. This ends up being a 9R-5D map, with VA-10 and VA-14 being swingy (although I suspect VA-14 will become permanently Democratic soon enough).