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I was curious to see how 18-29 year olds voted in 2010.  Did they vote Republican or did they continue their trend of voting Democratic?

For example, if you were in college in 2004, you were more likely to have voted for John Kerry.  In 2006, we see that younger voters helped elect Democrats (in many cases, these Democrats would have not won without 18-29 year olds).  In 2008, Barack Obama owed several state victories to young turnout.  By 2010, those college students from 2004-2010 would have left college and entered their mid 20s.  Even in this very Republican year, these voters remained solidly Democratic.

Had these been the only votes that counted, 2010 would have been considered a midterm triumph for Obama and the Democrats, a vote of confidence in the President.

Governors races

All ages: 47-46 Quinn (D)
18-29: 55-33 Quinn (D)
Difference: +8 D

All ages: 49-47 Kasich (R)
18-29: 53-43 Strickland (D)
Difference: +6 D

All ages: 54-46 Corbett (R)
18-29: 55-45 Onorato (D)
Difference: +11 D

All ages: 52-47 Walker (R)
18-29: 55-45 Barrett (D)
Difference: +8 D

All ages: 55-42 Perry (R)
18-29: 51-46 White (D)
Difference: +9 D

All ages: 49-48 Scott (R)
18-29: 59-39 Sink (D)
Difference: +11 D

South Carolina
All ages: 51-47 Haley (R)
18-29: 58-40 Shaheen (D)
Difference: +11 D

New Hampshire
All ages: 53-45 Lynch (D)
18-29: 62-34 Lynch (D)
Difference: +9 D

All ages: 53-43 Branstad (R)
18-29: 50-46 Branstad (R)
Difference: +3 D

All ages: 49-49 Malloy (D)
18-29: 65-34 Malloy (D)
Difference: +16 D

All ages: 54-41 Brown (D)
18-29: 60-33 Brown (D)
Difference: +6 D

All ages: 54-43 Brewer (R)
18-29: 48-46 Brewer (R)
Difference: +3 D

So younger voters came out to vote for Democratic Governors, even in very red states in a very red year.  

We see the biggest differences based on age group in Pennsylvania, Florida, South Carolina, and Connecticut, where young voters favored the Democratic candidate by a margin of over 10 points higher than all ages did.

Senate races

All ages: 51-49 Toomey (R)
18-29: 61-39 Sestak (D)
Difference: +12 D

All ages: 57-39 Portman (R)
18-29: 49-45 Fisher (D)
Difference: +10 D

All ages: 54-41 Blunt (R)
18-29: 51-44 Carnahan (D)
Difference: +10 D
[Interesting to note that the very youngest voters supported Blunt, while 25-29 year olds voted 57-39 for Carnahan, the only group to do so.]

All ages: 52-47 Johnson (R)
18-29: 53-46 Feingold (D)
Difference: +6 D
[Here we see again, 18-24 barely voting for Feingold while he wins 25-29 by a much larger 12 points.)

All ages: 49 Rubio (R) - 30 Crist (I) - 20 Meek (D)
18-29: 36 Rubio (R) - 33 Crist (I) - 31 Meek (D)
Difference: +11 D
[18-24 group went for the Republican by 1 point, while 25-29 went to the Democrat by 1 point.]

All ages: 48-47 Kirk (R)
18-29: 59-33 Giannoulias (D)
Difference: +12 D
[18-24 was 56-36 Giannoulias, while 25-29 was 62-30 Giannoulias.]

All ages: 55-40 Coats (R)
18-29: 55-42 Coats (R)
Difference: +2 D

All ages: 56-44 Paul (R)
18-29: 51-48 Conway (D)
Difference: +7 D
[18-24 voted for Paul, 52-47.  25-29 voted for Conway, 56-42, and they were the only age group in Kentucky to favor the Democrat.]

New Hampshire
All ages: 60-37 Ayotte (R)
18-29: 51-46 Hodes (D)
Difference: +14 D

House races

The national exit poll for the House shows that 18-29 year olds supported Democrats 55-42.  The other age groups supported Republicans.  The elderly supported Republicans 59-38.

My findings are that younger voters have consistently now, since 2004, voted for the Democrats.

You do see in CNN's exit poll that 18-24 year olds are not as Democratic as 25-29.

If you were 18 in 2010, you were 8 in 2000, when George Bush was first elected President and you were 12 in 2004.

If you were 25 in 2010, you were 15 in 2000 and you voted in 2004 (these youngest voters would have elected John Kerry).  You were likely in your early 20s during the worst of the Bush years.  This is the time when usually political beliefs begin to be formed.  This mini-generation (25-29) seems to view Democrats much more favorably than Republicans and its probably because they associate Republican policies with George W. Bush's administration.

In the early 80s, younger voters became Republicans and we that today that same age group does support Republicans.

Do you think it's likely that the younger voters remain Democratic?


Who was elected President the very first time you voted in a presidential election?

0%0 votes
0%0 votes
2%1 votes
2%1 votes
7%3 votes
10%4 votes
12%5 votes
15%6 votes
12%5 votes
20%8 votes
17%7 votes

| 40 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Sorry I meant to say 18-29 in 2010 (0+ / 0-)
  •  That's Those Who Showed Up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Image Hosted by

    Dems took a 40% drop in turnout when conservative seniors INCREASED 30%.

    Somebody made the seniors damned sure they felt wanted and that they had a stake in 2010.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Thu Jul 14, 2011 at 05:53:43 PM PDT

    •  And young voters (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      who are too fucking lazy or need coddling to be concerned about their current and future rights -- and yet decided not to vote -- make me sick.  

      I'm tired of the need for "inspiration."  If your reproductive, civil and economic rights aren't inspiration enough then you (not you, Gooserock) are a moran.

      I've voted since I was eligible -- held my nose almost every time -- but I voted for Democrats because the alternative was unappealing in my 20s and 30s and then horrifying later until the present.

      I fought for women's rights and environmental laws.  I'm 61 and don't have to worry about contraceptives and will be dead when this planet is gasping for breath.  If young people want to win a trophy to vote -- fuck them -- really -- that's how I feel.

      " My faith in the Constitution is whole; it is complete; it is total." Barbara Jordan, 1974

      by gchaucer2 on Thu Jul 14, 2011 at 06:05:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm intruiged... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    and a little surprised to see that Feingold did (relatively) poorly among the younger set. Esp. considering he's one of the most liberal pols out there. What is it, I wonder, that drove such a slim margin?

    "Don't let it end like this. Tell them I said something." -the last words of Pancho Villa

    by Shef on Thu Jul 14, 2011 at 05:55:18 PM PDT

  •  Math fail. (0+ / 0-)

    They voted for Democrats by the usual numbers but there were far fewer of them at the polls. Of course younger people are liberals, anyone who understands how societies morals evolve overtime understands that each consecutive generation will be more liberal.

    Aren't they amazing? They could go on forever, aimlessly talking about pointless subjects. Even I'm beginning to admire them for it. -- Nagisa, A Lollipop Or A Bullet

    by Dom9000 on Thu Jul 14, 2011 at 06:03:48 PM PDT

    •  Younger voters may be (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FG, tardis10, WellstoneDem, ChicDemago

      more socially liberal in each generation, but they're not necessarily more likely to be Democrats. The partisan split among the youngest voters fluctuates over time just like that of the electorate as a whole (in the late 80s, for example, the 18-24 cohort contained more Republicans than Democrats). So the fact that this cohort is overwhelmingly Democratic was not inevitable, and is good news over the long term for the party. However, as you pointed out, they didn't show up in 2010.

      Families is where a nation finds hope, where wings take dream.

      by cardinal on Thu Jul 14, 2011 at 06:19:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks! (0+ / 0-)

    Cheers me up a little.  it's scary, though, that the youngest group of voters in Kentucky actually voted for Ron Paul.  What did we put in THEIR cheerios??

  •  I honestly don't see ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    how young people, given their views in poll after poll, can possibly end up voting Republican, even as they age. Their tolerance of diversity is just too high to be absorbed comfortably into the current Republican Party.

    Now consistently turning them out in the long haul—as opposed to turning them off of politics altogether—is another story.

    •  Older views (0+ / 0-)

      It is strictly their different view of their own personal finances that does it.  As a college professor, I see different stages of people from young new voters to the 40-50 year old crowd, even older at times.  I teach English, something all freshmen must take and also a subject that leads itself to discussion and debate.  As people age and they have children and buy a home, they all of a sudden start to see themselves as middle class or even upper class if they happen to own the latest big screen or perhaps install a pool in their back yard.  They finish their degrees and now they are really on the road to conservatism, if these beliefs hold up.   Now all of a sudden the government is trying to take their money.  They start to think the republicans are for the man trying to make his fortune in America.  In reality, they will never ever be rich enough for the policies of republicans to help them.  I really do see a trend of people who once they reach 30, no matter how liberal they once were, changing into an independent leaning right or full blown tea bag.  It is not always the case, but it is certainly enough for concern.

  •  While this is nice (0+ / 0-)

    the big problem is that young people, generally speaking, don't turn out for mid-term or off-year elections. Hell, I was an election inspector in 2010 and about 1200-1500 people came to my polling site. I'd swear there were more voters over 80 than there were under 30.

    Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

    by milkbone on Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 06:56:54 AM PDT

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