(Romney photo credit: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)
Public Policy Polling (7/15-7/17, Republican primary voters):
Michele Bachmann: 21
Mitt Romney: 20
Rick Perry: 12
Herman Cain: 11
Ron Paul: 9
Newt Gingrich: 7
Tim Pawlenty: 5
Jon Huntsman: 3
Someone else/not sure: 12
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Bachmann's lead is just one point, but it's a meteoric surge, putting her atop the field in PPP's first poll since her official entrance in to the race. She also leads Romney in a hypothetical heads-up match for the nomination, taking 44 percent to Romney's 41 percent. It's notable that she leads Romney despite not being as well-known; while 74 percent of Republicans have an opinion of Bachmann, 80 percent have an opinion of Romney.
If Sarah Palin were to run, Romney would lead the field, but only because Palin would divide the field more than it already is. Romney's support is stuck at 20 either way, suggesting yet again that there is a Mitt Romney ceiling.
Mitt Romney: 20
Michele Bachmann: 16
Sarah Palin: 12
Rick Perry: 11
Herman Cain: 10
Ron Paul: 9
Newt Gingrich: 6
Tim Pawlenty: 5
Jon Huntsman: 2
Someone else/not sure: 10
(MoE: ±3.6%)
It's important to remember this the GOP nomination process will take place on a state-by-state basis, so a poll like this is really only useful for understanding broad trends, but those trends are not good news for Romney, and they are even worse for Tim Pawlenty who previously registered in double-digits but is now a non-factor.
Also noteworthy: Rick Perry does very well for a potential candidate who has not yet announced whether he is running. Given his conservative profile, if he does run he appears well-positioned to go after Michele Bachmann's supporters, especially if she falters.
Looking ahead, it's hard to see how things will get better for Romney, especially with liabilities like RomneyCare. Check out this question:
Would you be willing or unwilling to vote for a Presidential candidate who supported a law at the state level mandating that people have health insurance?
Willing 17
Unwilling 66
Not sure 17
When Romney finally faces a candidate willing to challenge him, it's going to be brutal. On the substance, Romney is a nonstarter for the GOP, and as PPP's Tom Jensen notes, he's going to have to base his campaign around electability. In other words, he's going to have to tell Republicans that teapartiers are unelectable at the national level. But that's not a message the GOP base is interested in hearing.