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CT-Sen: Pretty unsurprising after all the leaks and pre-leaks and pre-announcements and rumored hinted alleged announcements, but anyway, ex-Rep. Chris Shays (himself) finally says he's going to seek the GOP nod for U.S. Senate… in October (groan). Shays, who had quit Connecticut in favor of an exclusive waterfront community in Maryland, only re-enrolled as a Nutmeg State voter last week. It looks like Linda McMahon, the 2010 Republican nominee, will also run again, so I'm really looking forward to these two pounding on each other.

FL-Sen, FL-22: I has a sad: Rep. Allen West says he will not run for Senate and will instead seek re-election to the House.

Elsewhere in the land of FL-Sen Republicans comes this very bizarre story: Retired Army Reserves Col. Mike McCalister has recently been on the receiving end of allegations that he's been trumping up his military record, making it sound like he's served in combat zones and for special forces when he's done neither. He also had said he'd testified before Congress (he hadn't), but when called on it, he said he'd never made such a claim — even though two YouTube videos emerged showing he had. Now he's whining about opponents trying to "pick apart" his every word, and says he just didn't remember saying he'd claimed he'd testified. Welcome to politics, Colonel!

IN-Sen: We originally mentioned GOP state Sen. Mike Delph back in February, when he said he'd decide whether to seek the GOP Senate nomination after the conclusion of the legislative session… in April. Delph seemed to quickly disappear, though, and the race became a one-on-one between incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar and challenger Richard Mourdock, the state treasurer. But according to Brian Howey, after all this time, Delph is finally gearing up for a run — and it seems he'd be doing Lugar a serious solid by helping to split the vote against him. Indeed, that's exactly what Mourdock said he feared in that February link.

MA-Sen: A surprisingly decent ad (with amusing visuals) from a coalition of progressive groups called MassUniting takes aim at Scott Brown. The buy, however, is small (around $24K). You can view it here or below:

MI-Sen: Local pollster EPIC-MRA shows improving numbers for Dem Sen. Debbie Stabenow in their latest survey. Click the link for the full post at Daily Kos Elections.

MN-Sen: Sometimes you can be an elected official and still be more-or-less a Some Dude. Case in point: St. Bonifacius City Councilman Joe Arwood, a Republican who is considering seeking the GOP nod to take on Dem Sen. Amy Klobuchar. The red dot you see on this map is St. Bonifacius, home to 2,283 people. The AP says Arwood's name "is not well-known, even in political circles.

OH-Sen: Republicans endorsing other Republicans usually isn't news, but this is an exception: GOP Rep. Jim Jordan just offered his backing to Treasurer Josh Mandel, who is running for the Republican Senate nod. Jordan, you'll recall, landed himself on the redistricting hot seat when he tried to sabotage House Speaker John Boehner's debt deal from the right. A Senate run seemed like a decent alternative to walking the plank, but with this endorsement, it looks like Jordan's closed that door on himself.

By the way, this Weekly Standard piece says that Mandel "does not anticipate a primary challenge." That's awfully weird, since ex-state Rep. Kevin Coughlin is not only running, but has already attacked Mandel on a few occasions. Does Mandel expect Coughlin to drop out, or to register as nothing more than nuisance level?

UT-Sen: In a surprising move, Rep. Jason Chaffetz will not challenge Sen Orrin Hatch for the GOP nomination. Follow the link for our full post at Daily Kos Elections.


MO-Gov: You know life sucks when you feel compelled to release an internal poll showing you down seven points — and that actually counts as good news. But, well, Peter Kinder's life does suck, and his survey from the renamed Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research (fka "Wilson Research Strategies") shows exactly that, with Kinder down 48-41. In the "Why you should view this poll skeptically" Dept., note that it purports to canvass likely voters (over a year out from election day). It also tries to establish a trendline with, amusingly, a PPP poll, claiming that Kinder's favorables are improving! (They stand at 33-20 in this test.)

MS-Gov: Today is the Mississippi runoff for the Democratic gubernatorial nod. Businessman and attorney Bill Luckett has been outspending Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree by about two-to-one, but they finished very close in the first round and there hasn't been any public polling, so I'd say this is probably anyone's race. (The third- and fourth-place finishers, who combined for 17 percent of the vote, both endorsed DuPree.)


FL-08, AR-02: Remember that gross story about GOP Rep. Tim Griffin, who represents Arkansas, handing out a Soviet-style "watch list" of progressive activists at his town halls — activists who hailed from Florida? Well, this answers the question of where Griffin got that list. We already knew that the activists had attended meetings hosted by another Republican freshman, Dan Webster, so I guess it's no surprise that Webster himself was responsible for circulating these names to fellow lawmakers. Webster claims it was all an accident. Sure, sure.

FL-10: It's not every day that a former governor gets mentioned as a possible congressional candidate — let alone a candidate for a different party than the one he was a member of while in office. But in point of fact, this is the second such day. Back in June, we relayed speculation that Charlie Crist could challenge GOP Rep. Bill Young (or run for his 10th District seat if he retires). At the time, it seemed like a bit of an outlier idea, but it seems to be gaining currency, with the St. Petersburg Times now discussing it as well. Of course, this is all just a giant game of telephone for now, but it's interesting to see chatter unfold like this.

IA-02: The NRCC is spending $11K to trot out the same ad they're running against Tim Walz and Kurt Schrader in Dave Loebsack's district. The spot (which you can watch here) is notable only because it's trying to turn healthcare reform into a salient issue again.

IL-11: Businessman and Grundy County Board member Chris Balkema says he's forming an exploratory committee for the GOP nod in this redrawn (and much bluer) district. The current incumbent Republican, Adam Kinzinger, isn't expected to seek re-election here, and Dem ex-Rep. Bill Foster is the early favorite to pick up this seat.

Another GOPer, state Sen. Chris Lauzen, who had been considering a run here has declined to do so. Instead, he'll seek the position of Kane County Board Chairman. It's interesting to see Lauzen pull the plug on his state Senate career like this (Illinois does not have term limits). I believe he may have gotten screwed in redistricting, but regardless, the new map not only locks in Dem majorities but probably Dem super-majorities, which will make being a Republican in Springfield about as fun as, well… how fun is Springfield anyway?

IN-05: According to the scrolling ticker on Howey Politics Indiana over the weekend, Dem state Rep. Scott Reske is considering a run against Rep. Dan Burton (or whoever emerges from that cockadoodle primary) in the 5th CD. Reske got jacked in redistricting, so this is an interesting escape hatch, especially since this district actually got a lot bluer as a result of the congressional remap. It went from 59-40 McCain all the way to 53-47 McCain. Now obviously those 2008 Obama numbers in Indiana are a serious high-water mark, but could this wind up being a hidden opportunity for Democrats, especially if Burton is the GOP nominee? (Hat-tip: SouthernINDem)

KY-01, KY-02, KY-Sen: Dem state Rep. Brent Yonts says he might run for the 1st CD seat (currently held by GOPer Ed Whitfield)… but not until 2014. Yonts doesn't want to share ballot space with Barack Obama for his inaugural run because “Kentucky doesn’t like President Obama.” True enough! The same article also says that Secretary of State Elaine Walker, who lost a primary earlier this year to Allison Lundergan Grimes, wants to run for office again, and she hasn't ruled out campaigns for Senate, KY-02, or possibly statewide office in 2015. (Walker was appointed by Steve Beshear after 2010 GOP Senate candidate Trey Grayson fled the state for the friendly confines of Harvard University.)

LA-03, LA-07: Sen. David Vitter insists that the two town halls he's co-hosting with fellow Republican Jeff Landry do not constitute endorsements — even though they're taking place within the current 7th District, home of Rep. Charles Boustany. Of course, there is no more 7th CD, and most of Boustany's new district is now renumbered into the 3rd. That seat also includes Landry's home and about a quarter of his current constituents, making it the most obvious place for Landry to try to continue his brief congressional career. But while Vitter swears he's not backing Landry, the linked article notes that Boustany refused to endorse Vitter for re-election last year, so perhaps it's payback time.

MI-13, MI-14: It looks like the switcheroo is in effect: Freshman Dem Hansen Clarke, who currently represents the 13th CD, tweeted that he'd seek re-election in the 14th; meanwhile, veteran John Conyers, the occupant of the 14th, will "absolutely" run in the 13th, according to a Politico source. The GOP tried to scramble these two seats in redistricting, but they by and large wound up creating two districts that still made sense for Clarke and Conyers, so long as they could broker a swap. Several other Democrats had been mooting primary challenges to Conyers, though, so it remains to be seen what they decide in the wake of this new arrangement.

NV-02: Democrat Kate Marshall is out with a new ad, backed by a substantial 1,000-point buy. (For a good explanation of Gross Ratings Points — which are actually a more useful metric than raw dollars — see here.) The spot (which you can watch at the first link) hits Mark Amodei on ethics/goo-goo issues, which suggests that Medicare isn't gaining the traction here that we might hope. Also of note: Early voting begins this Saturday. The special election is on Sept. 13.

NY-09: According to the New York Post, the NRCC will apparently "dole out a five-figure sum" to Republican Bob Turner — big money, I know. Though the exact number isn't specified, I'm guessing this may be that rare breed known as a "coordinated expenditure" (as opposed to the vastly more common independent expenditure), based on the size (if the report is even accurate in the first place). Party committees are allowed to spend small sums in concert with campaigns, and in the case of House races, that number is $44,200. Chump change, but sometimes committees do this to give off the appearance of getting involved.

NY-23: I wonder if this will start a trend. Dem Rep. Bill Owens "declined to immediately endorse President Barack Obama for re-election in 2012, saying he'll have to 'wait and see.'" Before anyone gets bent out of shape, Owens had almost entirely positive comments about Obama, and even said: "I think he's done a good job under very, very difficult circumstances." I actually think this is a pretty smart move given his district, since it makes Owens look all "independent" and like he's thoughtfully making up his mind with each election, rather than reflexively supporting his party's nominee. (Also recall he pulled something similar last year with regard to the House speaker vote before coming around in the end.)

OK-02: Randy Krehbiel at the Tulsa World has a helpful roundup of the playing field in the open-seat race for OK-02. On the GOP side, the announced candidates so far are state Rep. George Faught, businessman Markwayne Mullin (who actually has already filed FEC reports), and Marine Corps vet Dakota Wood, who just got into the race. Also considering: ex-state Rep. Wayne Pettigrew, Tishomingo city attorney Dustin Rowe, and ex-state Sen. Randy Brogdon (who could also challenge 1st CD Rep. John Sullivan in a primary).

The piece also mentions a possible name on the Democratic side, assistant U.S. Attorney Rob Wallace, who is described as the "leading" candidate for Team Blue. Other potential Dems listed in this AP writeup from a few weeks ago include former state Sen. Ben Robinson and current state Sen. Jim Wilson.

PA-11: Mike Magner at the National Journal flags a month-old report in The Scranton Times-Tribune which says that Dem ex-Rep. Chris Carney took a "government relations" job at defense contractor BAE Systems back in June. (Amusingly, BAE claims it's not a lobbying job, but please go ahead and decipher this Beltway-speak for me: “He was brought on to interface and build relationships between our business sectors and the leadership of the relevant civilian agencies that they are going to work with, most notably the Department of Homeland Security.”) Anyhow, it sounds like a plum gig, so perhaps Carney isn't all that interested in attempting a return to Congress by challenging GOP freshman Lou Barletta.

WI-01: A week after claiming that Rep. Paul Ryan had changed his mind and would run for president, the Weekly Standard now regrets to report that he'll do no such thing.

Other Races:

NJ-St. Sen.: This is certainly an odd story. Pat Delany, a Republican Assemblyman, resigned his post last month, apparently because his wife had the genius idea to respond to an email blast from Democrat Carl Lewis with the following unsubscribe message:

Imagine, not having to pay NJ state income taxes...It must be nice. Imagine getting a court ruling overturned so your name could get put on the ballot. Imagine having dark skin and name recognition and the nerve to think that equalled (sic) knowing something about politics. Sure, knowing someone with fat purse strings is nice, but you have no knowledge.

Remove my email. To think you STOLE my email and name from a complaint letter. I'm reporting you as SPAM.

What makes this more than your run-of-the-mill "racist email derails political career" story is, well, a few things! First off, why is this story coming out now — a month after Delany's resignation? And why did he quit on account of something he didn't even say? A statement Delany issued yesterday (you can read it at the link) threw his wife under the bus anyway, so it's not like he was looking to protect her. Anyhow, there's a good lesson for all campaigns here: Read the crap that people send back to the generic email addresses you use for sending spam. You never know what goodies you might find.

Redistricting Roundup:

CO Redistricting: Republicans have filed their proposed map in the federal case that's currently adjudicating redistricting in Colorado. (You'll recall that the divided legislature couldn't reach a compromise.) You'd be forgiven for thinking they simply cut-and-pasted the current map, because it's basically designed to change existing lines as little as possible. Indeed, according to Lynn Bartels, "Republicans have named their map 'Minimum Disruption.1,' which Democrats dismissed as the name of a light jazz quartet.'" The over-arching irony here is that the GOP bitterly opposed the court-drawn map from a decade ago, but now they realize it's the closest thing possible to a Republican gerrymander. (Democrats were supposed to file their map yesterday but we haven't come across it yet.)

GA Redistricting: Jim Galloway has a first look at the just-released Georgia congressional redistricting map. More details on the plans here (including a PDF of racial statistics), and a full version of the map below:

Some initial thoughts from David Jarman:
While the goo-goo in me likes the new Georgia map from the standpoint of having nice polygonal shapes and honoring county lines, having done some number-crunching, I can say this is a really effective screw-job against Rep. John Barrow, one of the few white Blue Dogs in the South who survived 2010. The new GA-12, centered on Augusta and shorn of Barrow's adopted hometown of Savannah, went 44% for Obama, 55% for McCain (down from 54/45 under the old lines). The flipside is that it's now equal to GOP Rep. Jack Kingston's GA-01, which used to be 36/63, but thanks to taking on African-American majority Savannah, is now also 44/55. I'm wondering if Barrow, rather than picking up stakes and casting his lot in with Augusta, should pull a Tim Holden: stay in his home district and fight the GOP incumbent, hoping that the previously-safe Kingston doesn't remember how to campaign.

Further west, Dem Sanford Bishop's GA-02 seems to have gained very little ground, despite gaining most or all of Macon... under the worst case scenario his district is unchanged at 54/45 (although it's probably a point or two better than that; it's hard to tell from the small map where exactly the district line cuts through Macon's northern suburbs). GOP frosh Austin Scott's sitting pretty, though, with his formerly 43/56 district now 38 Obama, 61 McCain. (That mostly has to do with the way that the 8th loses the arm to the north of Macon that reached up into Atlanta's southern tier of mostly-black exurbs.)

As it turns out, it looks like Barrow has rejected our sage advice, at least based on his public comments in response to the map. Rather, it sounds like he'll seek re-election in the soon-to-be-much-redder 12th CD. Dan Hirschhorn also notes that State Rep. Lee Anderson "is seen as a leading Republican candidate to challenge Barrow."

And on a separate note, I'm glad to see that state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams runs a tight ship — and that her threats are feared. Abrams had promised primary challenges to any Democrat who voted for the GOP's new legislative maps, and indeed, her entire caucus stuck together in voting on the House plan. Dems in the state Senate also voted en masse against the corresponding map. Of course, the Republican plans passed easily, but rule #1 of redistricting is never vote for the other side's gerrymander. With congressional redistricting now underway, I presume Abrams' cudgel is still handy.

ID Redistricting: Idaho is an interesting case: Despite the GOP's complete dominance, state law calls for a commission composed of equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans — and further requires that maps receive at least one vote from the opposite party in order to pass. If no one defects, then the whole thing winds up in the courts. The GOP seems intent on punishing some wayward "moderates," and the linked article gives no indication that they're likely to pull any Dems over to their side (or vice versa, for that matter). The commission has until the first week in September to reach a deal.

WV Redistricting: After a bunch of rigmarole, West Virginia's state House map is going back to Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin's desk for his approval. Tomblin had vetoed the original map for technical errors, but some folks (mostly Republicans) were hoping to revisit the issue of single-member districts. While the latest plan contains more single-member seats than the current map (47, versus 36), that's unchanged from the vetoed version. (Republicans want to see the entire body served by single-member districts.) Interestingly, while the map passed the House by a wide margin, it only made it through the Senate by a single vote, despite Dem control of the entire trifecta.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'm building a lobbying team for the MCM (0+ / 0-)

    - if you are interested in calling your congressman about issues important to veterans and military families, we would like you to take this short survey. It will help us target issues even before the hit the big time.

  •  New GA districts (5+ / 0-)

    Haven't seen a full set of numbers for all the districts yet.  I drew it up in DRA, and while I can't split precincts like they did, I think it comes pretty close.  2008 Obama/McCain numbers:

    GA-01: 43/56
    GA-02: 59/41
    GA-03: 35/64
    GA-04: 74/25
    GA-05: 84/15
    GA-06: 39/60
    GA-07: 39/60
    GA-08: 38/62
    GA-09: 26/73
    GA-10: 39/60
    GA-11: 35/64
    GA-12: 44/55
    GA-13: 66/33
    GA-14: 70/29

    Old numbers for reference:
    GA-01: 36/63 R+16
    GA-02: 54/46 D+1
    GA-03: 35/64 R+19
    GA-04: 79/21 D+24
    GA-05: 79/20 D+26
    GA-06: 37/62 R+19
    GA-07: 39/60 R+16
    GA-08: 43/56 R+10
    GA-09: N/A
    GA-10: 38/61 R+15
    GA-11: 33/66 R+20
    GA-12: 54/45 D+1
    GA-13: 71/28 D+15
    GA-14: 24/75 R+28

    •  interesting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      looks like GA-06 and GA-07 might be vulnerable later on in the decade after all.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 06:06:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  not very likely (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HeyMikey, MichaelNY

        The only Democrat currently in a 60% Bush 2000 seat is Jim Matheson.  The electorate just doesn't move that quickly.  And when you factor in that 2008 was the best Democratic year in over 40 years, those 60% McCain seats are more like 65% Republican seats in normal years.  It's hard to see those districts being competitive any time soon.

        •  The electorate does move that quickly there (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sulthernao, MichaelNY

          the Republican % between 2004-2008 plummeted in GA-06 from 70 to 62 and in GA-07 from 70 to 60. in 2016 or 2020, a strong Dem candidate + the Democratic presidential candidate contesting the state could easily put Woodall or Price in danger.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:24:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I bet that was AA turnout. (0+ / 0-)

            GA was thought to be competitive for awhile in 2008, but that hope faded. The hope was based on Obama at the top of the ticket driving up AA turnout. The increased AA turnout wasn't enough to prevent GA from going for McCain, but it did cause a rapid shift in the numbers. But, I suspect, a temporary shift...unless the Dems will consistently nominate black people for President.

            "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

            by HeyMikey on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:47:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Georgia was never given the same level of (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              attention that others states close to it, like Virginia and North Carolina, were given. I don't think it's out of the question to suggest that he could have won it had he put resources into doing so.

              Whatever the case, it's supposedly one of the big target states for 2012, along with Arizona and possibly Texas, that would go along with traditional swing states in an ideal year. It's not clear now what will happen, but if he's not fighting for his life elsewhere, I expect his campaign to be there.

              You're right that Democrats need consistently support from blacks and other non-whites to be competitive and win, but let's also remember that Gore and Kerry basically ignored the state. Any other Democrat that tries will naturally get some return on his investment--perhaps not enough to win, but enough to make an impact.

              •  GA trending red, from where I sit. (In GA.) (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                The Caped Composer

                I worked some for the 2008 Obama campaign out of the Austell, GA (Atlanta suburbs) office. When it became apparent GA was out of reach, the campaign closed that office and most other GA offices to concentrate on other states.

                I hate to say it, but I think that was the right call.

                And I hate to say it, but the state is getting redder. Roy Barnes was a pretty good Dem governor. After 8 years out of office he ran for re-election last year against Nathan Deal, GOP hack and known crook. Deal beat him, and it wasn't particularly close. If Roy Barnes couldn't win GA statewide, then no Dem can win GA statewide.

                The people who think GA is a battleground state next year are living in a fantasy world. GA will go red.

                "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

                by HeyMikey on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 11:02:32 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  last year was the worst year for Dems (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jncca, andgarden, MichaelNY

                  in decades.  We shouldn't assume that someone who lost last year would lose in a normal year.

                  I was with the unions before it was cool. -6.38, -4.15

                  by James Allen on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 11:22:03 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Last year was reversion to trend. (0+ / 0-)

                    2006 and 2008 were the anomalies because Bush had screwed up the country so badly it could no longer be hidden. Last year was people reverting to what they've always wanted to believe: low taxes and blaming scapegoats are the answers.

                    At least, that's how I read things.

                    "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

                    by HeyMikey on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 12:16:05 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  Georgia might go red, but I don't think it's (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jncca, MichaelNY

                  becoming redder. It's been a Republican state at the presidential level for a while now, but trends appear to be working in our direction.

                  When did your office close? From what I remember, some resources were put in, then some taken out, and then some put back in.

                  Also, the Obama campaign supposedly mentioned the state earlier in the year as a target. That could easily change, as it's not likely to be crucial, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them make an investment at first.

                  •  I hope you're right, but... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:

           I said, Roy Barnes was about the best Dem gov candidate we could hope for, and Deal was one of the worst GOPers. We couldn't win the most favorable matchup we're likely to get for awhile.

                    I don't recall the specific sequence of the 2008 Obama office opening & closing. The office was open for awhile, then it closed.

                    The faster Hispanics start to vote, the bluer Georgia will get. But that will take awhile. For now the Tea Partiers here are riled up and the low-info swing voters are in "all politicians are alike, they all suck" mode. Justly or not, they hold Obama and the Dems equally responsible with the GOP for the economy, perhaps more so. The enthusiasm gap is still killing us. Just like Gore 2000. I hope to God no new Nader emerges.

                    "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

                    by HeyMikey on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 01:21:50 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  It's also about white voters. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:

                      There needs to be an increase in white voters for the state to be truly competitive, but fortunately, the increase doesn't have to be that big. If 30 percent of whites had voted for Obama in 2008, based on the CNN exit polls, he'd have won the state with slightly over 51 percent of the vote.

                  •  Gallup actually gave Obama positive numbers in GA (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:

                    There year-to-date state polling averages actually had him with positive ratings in Georgia. Granted, I'm not sure how valuable the year-to-date polling averages are, but it was still interesting.

                    •  Yeah, but check enthusiasm. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:

                      Polling in last year’s election season consistently showed a majority of the public agreed with the Dems. But a majority of the voters obviously agreed with the GOP.

                      The enthusiasm gap killed us last year and will continue to kill us because the low-info voters blame Obama and the GOP equally for the lousy economy. The only folks fired up about voting in Georgia are the Teabaggers.

                      "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

                      by HeyMikey on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:39:24 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

              •  I do think it's out of the question (0+ / 0-)

                that he could have won it in 2008. But it's not out of the question that it could be won by a Democrat statewide within the next decade, and conceivably, in the 2012 presidential election, if all the stars align.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:26:16 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  I actually think Kingston actually becomes more (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          vulnerable because they not only gave him all of Savannah, but threw in Lowndes County as well. That's one more media market than he's had so far, if you add in Valdosta. Not only black voters but young voters at Valdosta State.

    •  I'm really hot under the collar about the 12th (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, HeyMikey, itskevin, MichaelNY

      I think it's a pretty transparent retrogression, and I'm spoiling for a fight over it.

      Just because you can't make a majority black district there doesn't mean that you can crack and diminish black voting power relative to the benchmark plan.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 06:25:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have a hard time hopping on board with that (0+ / 0-)

        Just because a district was drawn with 38.7654% black voters at one single moment in time doesn't mean that it has to be drawn with 38.7654% black voters in perpetuity.

        •  It's not a percentages game (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          It's a question of meaningful ability to participate. Can you say with a straight face that the electoral power of black voters in the new 12th has not been substantially diminished?

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:08:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  sure (0+ / 0-)

            It's been diminished in the 12th, but increased in the 1st.  Where do you draw the line?  The courts seem to have drawn the line at 50%.

          •  Well, they protected Johnson by (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            pushing his district further into Gwinett County and pushed Woodall's district further up into Forsyth County. That's pretty good for Dekalb County black voters who I had expected would be pushed into Lewis's district which has grown into Dekalb County over the years.

            12th issues notwithstanding, I think it definitely could have been a lot worse for Black voters in the state. Nothing to cheer about of course, but it definitely could have been worse.

            Especially with giving Bishop almost all of Bibb County. That's probably going to save him considering he only won by 3 points last year.

            •  The only way it could have been worse (0+ / 0-)

              is if they tried to take out Bishop. They weren't going to mess with any of the Atlanta districts.

              Ok, so I read the polls.

              by andgarden on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:21:24 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I dunno. I think they could have definitely (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                fucked with Johnson. Leaving him in place, but diluting him enough to make him squirm. No way they'd touch Lewis or Scott.

                But having said all that, with Bishop now looking more secure, I don't mind trading off the blue dog for a better shot at Kingston. Lot of Medicare on that coast. Throw in Black voters and all the college students Kingston has picked up, and overall I'd say this was the least worst scenario we could possibly get from the legislature.

                •  Johnson's district was VRA benchmark and (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  brooklynbadboy, MichaelNY

                  they couldn't have taken it out if they wanted to. It's pretty clear to me that the VRA requires that the 4th, 5th, and 13th be retained essentially as they are (because they can be drawn in a "reasonably compact" way to have majority black electorates).

                  IMO, there's no great shot at Kingston (although he thought there was a few years ago when he insisted that Savannah be left in the 12th.) The bottom line for me is that the current 12th could, in theory, support a better Democrat than John Barrow (Obama won it by almost double digits). Neither the new 1st nor the new 12th can.

                  It's nice to have Bishop a little more secure, but last year was the worst case scenario in his old district, and he still won.

                  Ok, so I read the polls.

                  by andgarden on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:44:49 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  That GA map has a lot of straight lines (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      and normal shapes, especially when compared to the ridiculous map for NC.

      "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

      by bear83 on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:03:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Bishop picking up most of Bibb County is probably (0+ / 0-)

      a net plus for him overall.

    •  The new Ga 11th (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      contains Cherokee and Bartow Counties plus a slice of East Cobb.  Not coincidentally State Senate Majority Leader Chip Rogers is from Cherokee County and his state senate district includes much of that same segment of Cobb.  He's obviously planning a move to DC in the near future.

      But there's been a scandal involving Rogers and Rep. Tom Graves from NW GA.  They reneged on a loan from the Bank of Bartow over a motel they bought together in Calhoun, GA (in Graves' district) and caused the bank to fail.  So I doubt Bartow is going to be strong Rogers country.  However Cherokee and East Cobb can easily outvote Bartow so I'm sure old Chip will be in DC come 2013.

  •  correction (0+ / 0-)

    Carney is PA-10; PA-11 was Kanjorski's seat.

    And, yes, given the definition of "lobbying" under federal law it is certainly possible to engage in governmental relations work which does not require registering as a lobbyist.

  •  That Brown ad is actually (7+ / 0-)

    good. Wow.

    "Gussie, a glutton for punishment, stared at himself in the mirror."

    by GussieFN on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 06:38:43 AM PDT

  •  so why would McMahon pounding (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, sulthernao, itskevin

    Chris 'both ways" Shays end differently than her pounding Rob Simmons did?

    CT republicans are tea flavored these days.

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 06:47:02 AM PDT

  •  FYI, we actually have elections in Virginia today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker

    Primary elections today in Virginia for the House of Delegates, State Senate, and other offices like Commonwealth's Attorney and Fairfax County supervisors. For more, see Blue Virginia and Not Larry Sabato.  Also, if you live in Virginia, don't forget to vote, polls open 6 am-7 pm!

  •  The Democratic version (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    of the Colorado redistricting map was posted in this morning's Denver Post. Makes Mike Coffman's seat a contested one - finally.

    I was drawn to the flame because of the light, but got lost in the smoke.

    by maizenblue on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 06:50:59 AM PDT

  •  As (12+ / 0-)

    you all know Jack Layton (Canada's opposition leader) died yesterday. He was kind enough to pen a letter in his final days:

    Dear Friends,

    Tens of thousands of Canadians have written to me in recent weeks to wish me well. I want to thank each and every one of you for your thoughtful, inspiring and often beautiful notes, cards and gifts. Your spirit and love have lit up my home, my spirit, and my determination.

    Unfortunately my treatment has not worked out as I hoped. So I am giving this letter to my partner Olivia to share with you in the circumstance in which I cannot continue.

    Its such a tragedy that Canadians lost a man like him because political leaders like him don't come around this often.

    Rest in peace Jack.

    It's time to move forward.....away from the Tea Party!

    by ehstronghold on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:02:55 AM PDT

  •  Link to Colorado Dem map (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HeyMikey, MichaelNY

    Here it is.

    Also, for the record, the redistricting litigation is not federal. It is in state district court in Denver.

  •  Bwhahaha.... the battle of new vs. old money (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    • CT-Sen: Pretty unsurprising after all the leaks and pre-leaks and pre-announcements and rumored hinted alleged announcements, but anyway, ex-Rep. Chris Shays (himself) finally says he's going to seek the GOP nod for U.S. Senate… in October (groan). Shays, who had quit Connecticut in favor of an exclusive waterfront community in Maryland, only re-enrolled as a Nutmeg State voter last week. It looks like Linda McMahon, the 2010 Republican nominee, will also run again, so I'm really looking forward to these two pounding on each other.

    I am off my metas! Präsidentenelf-maßschach; Warning-Some Snark Above"Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03)

    by annieli on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:07:33 AM PDT

  •  NJ-State Sen: I really don't get it (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    I've gotten emails from Republicans by mistake in my email, but I just delete it. There are plenty of Republicans that I don't care fore, but I'd never send even think of sending them a racist or inflammatory email.

    I really do not get why people have to get so ugly over political matters.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:07:36 AM PDT

  •  Kinder is only down 7 points (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GradyDem, itskevin, MichaelNY

    According to the Law of Diminishing Effect of Stripper-Related Misconduct, he should be in a dead heat by April 2014.

  •  Michigan's RWers really want Debbie Stabenow's (4+ / 0-)

    Senate seat.  There are several no-names and Pete Hoekstra, a defeated GOP gov candidate and former repub House rep.  Stabenow is popular with the unions because of her role in the automakers' rescue, so the Amway folks will go after that like it's a bad thing.  

    I wouldn't be surprised if after pollings show Hoekstra has little traction that MI-GOP will try to get John Engler to run now that he owns a residence here.  He left a mess for Granholm to try to clean up.  This seems to be a GOP strategy:  When it looks like they are going to be evicted by the electorate, they really trash the house.

  •  NV-02: I Told You So... Yet Again! (9+ / 0-)

    From RGJ:

    Some of the readers of the Reno Gazette-Journal have contacted me to say that reports of last week’s poll on the special election for the open seat in the 2nd Congressional District are bogus.

    It showed that Republican Mark Amodei has a 13-point lead over Democrat Kate Marshall with three weeks to go until the Sept 13 election. It would be almost an insurmountable lead, with so little time remaining.

    Yet three readers sent e-mails last Friday after the story appeared, saying Marshall was referred to by another name during the robo polling sponsored by Americans For Prosperity, considered a conservative group with Republican leanings.

    "I was contacted by the poll to which you refer in your article today," Kathleen Fogarty wrote last week. "Kate Marshall’s name was not even offered as a candidate. Instead, they listed Kate Jackson as a candidate. I would have voted for Marshall, but when her name was not offered I just hung up. I did listen to the message twice though before I hung up to make sure I heard it correctly." [...]

    Fred Cooperof Reno asked if it was a deliberate plan to impact polling, although he did not mention "Jackson" at all.

    "I recently answered a robo-call that was polling for the special election," Cooper wrote. "The recorded call used Kate Marshall’s incorrect name. It said Kate Wilson -- or some other incorrect name for Kate. Frustrated with the incompetence of the polling agency, I hung up.

    "I later wondered if it was incompetency," Cooper said. "Or was it deliberate, in order to affect the polling results? And after reading your RGJ article, I ask, was this the poll that resulted in a 13-point lead by Amodei? I know that I am only one witness to this. But, if you receive other similar reports, this may be a newsworthy story."

    Barb Giacommi, owner of the Daughters Cafe in Reno, also said, the robocall referred to "Kate Jackson."

    "Here’s something funny about that poll: I got the call and participated in the survey," Giacomni wrote. "The last question was "would you vote for Mark Amodei or Kate Jackson!" I am not kidding! I didn’t know what to say!

    So who still wants to believe Mark Amodei is winning easily over "Kate Jackson"? Wow! Who would have guessed one of Charlie's Angels would run for Congress one day!

    •  This is a perfect example (7+ / 0-)

      of how in a mass-information age, things like this always need to be looked at closely -- are they: 1) Legitimate, well-done surveys done by a non-partisan entity, 2) Still legitimate polls done by a campaign, so expect skewing in one direction, 3) Campaign progaganda dressed up as scientific research (like this crap), or 4) Scott Rasmussen.

    •  I'm sure that was just a "mistake" (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, dc1000, itskevin, MichaelNY

      Okay, I knew the poll was off, but I never thought it was for reasons like that.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:45:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is why I don't automatically... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Believe any and all public polls that are released. As we all saw last year in NV-Sen, we saw everything from supposedly "respectable" outlets (I'm looking at you, CNN) releasing crap with wacky demographics, usually good outlets (such as PPP) releasing numbers that skewed more GOP than what's realistic, and just pure farce (like those R-J piles of s--- made to look like "polls"). I have to do my research, see who has the best track records (and here in Nevada, Suffolk is the ONLY public pollster with any sort of credibility; Mellman and POS are quite good here, but they're private), and look at the internals to see if they get the demographics right. Sorry, but from the start I smelled a rat in that AFP poll done by Magellan.

        •  I say we just ignore this poll when analyzing NV02 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, MichaelNY

          I should have known the Koch bratts would pull something like this. I really do not have any problem with public polling but when they are giving the wrong names for a candidate, the legitimacy is in question. Amodei is just lucky he didn't have to face AG Cortez Masto, who happens to be extremely popular in the northern nevada area.

    •  Thanks, but don't quote so much (0+ / 0-)

      I really don't want to see one of us get sued.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:52:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Crist (0+ / 0-)

    personally, I hope Crist runs for governor again, as a democrat.  I stated months ago that he'd only make a good candidate if there was no one else, but then I realized what would happen if Crist won: there would be one hell of a case study.  Think about it, when was the last time a governor served two nonconsecutive terms under two different parties, neither of which is a third party or independent status?  since the man, crist is a constant, we'd be able to see how much of an impact a party really has on an executive.  would he be the same crist from 2007-2011, or would he be more liberal?  ideally the legislature would be democratically so he'd have a relatively friendly legislature for each term, but only so many variables can be accounted for.

    Excellent Political Science Thesis 2014!

  •  Ohio — I should point out (3+ / 0-)

    that there are a gazillion rumors about who is "in the hot seat" for elimination. Mike Turner also voted against the debt ceiling bill and getting him out would be a snap.  I've also heard they could put Jean Schmidt against Boehner and get rid of her propensity to embarrass the GOP. Gibb or Johnson would also be possibilities. Meanwhile, crazyass Jordan's endorsement of Josh "The Empty Suit" Mandel is one more step separating him from potential votes and money in the liberal urban Jewish community. They may have supported him for state treasurer, but he basically had no positions at all other than a hawkish AIPAC-y position on Israel. As it becomes clear he has assumed teabagger positions (Mandel actually has no real beliefs; they are all costumes), that will become more difficult.

    Jennifer Brunner for Governor of Ohio 2014

    by anastasia p on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:47:07 AM PDT

    •  And here you go: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Dayton Daily News says not Jordan, maybe Turner.

      Either way, both are backbenchers of no particular leadership qualities despite tacking to the ultra-ultra-ultra-right. Neither would be a loss to Congress.

      Sadly, Betty Sutton, the most likely Democrat Ohio will lose, would be. I hope she decides to take on Renacci.

      Jennifer Brunner for Governor of Ohio 2014

      by anastasia p on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 09:22:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  isn't turner (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        one of the more moderate ohio gopers, along with latourette and stivers.

        by more moderate, of course, i mean establishmenty and not tea-flavored

        18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 01:43:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MORE NV-02! Part 1 of Jon Ralston's debate! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, itskevin, askew, MichaelNY

    He really ripped into Kate Marshall for attacking RyanCare (ugh, he likes Paul Ryan??!!), but he also put Mark Amodei in the hot seat for trying to have it both ways on RyanCare.

    You can watch Part 1 here. Part 2 will air on all the Nevada NBC affiliates tonight.

  •  Loved the bobble-head ad! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pademocrat, MichaelNY

    Now if I can just find bobble-heads of Walter Becker and Donald Fagen for my porthole Pinto.

    "If this Studebaker had anymore Atomic Space-Age Style, you'd have to be an astronaut with a geiger counter!"

    by Stude Dude on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:58:35 AM PDT

  •  I believe the update on PA-11 is (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    incorrect   ....  Carney would have to challenge the freshman Republican Tom Marino, not Lou Bartletta.  Barletta is in PA-10.

  •  Might the debt ceiling budget deal not matter? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Stan Collender suggests that the budget deal reached to get the debt ceiling bill passed might never really go into effect. In particular, look at these last four points:

    What does this mean for the budget outlook?

    1) At best, the budget agreement signed into law on August 2 will only be fully implemented in fiscal 2012.

    2) The spending cuts projected for fiscal 2013 through 2021 – including the across-the-board cuts that will be triggered if the super committee is unable to agree on a deficit reduction plan – will be revised, perhaps substantially, before they go into effect. In many or most cases those changes will never happen.

    3) The impact on the sectors, industries, and individual companies of the spending cuts projected in the budget agreement will be far less than anticipated.

    4) The federal deficit will not be reduced as far or fast as was projected when the agreement was signed into law.

    All things considered, the cuts for 2012 weren't that big, and if we do get substantial cuts from the Super Committee, that could easily make things far worse. But nothing really comes from the November meetings, then this does look like the best of both worlds for Obama: he gets the credit for trying to cut spending without any of the big (and negative) macroeconomic impact. I'm not sure if this was the bet all along, but if so, perhaps he does know what he's doing.

    •  I actually hope the triggered cuts go into effect (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      They mostly cut Medicare on the provider side, and not so badly, and they make steep cuts to the Pentagon. Just let the trigger go off, and then refuse to renew the Bush tax cuts (all of them). Deficit problem solved, and arguably far more progressively than a bipartisan deal would be at this point, given how extreme the Republicans have gotten.

  •  Perry leads in Iowa-prez primary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY
    •  Wow...check out Q19-22. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Looks like both Bachmann and Romney will have issues getting people who aren't already on their side. Perry is doing well across the board, but we'll see if it's because he's the flavor of the month, or has genuine support.

      •  I think Perry's problem is getting people (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        who aren't diehard conservatives in the general. He's been in the race for, what, two weeks now? Once his extreme views are fully fleshed out for the public, I wouldn't be surprised to see his support drop.

  •  WI-Sen: Bring on the catfud (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY

    The Club for Growth has an ad sharply criticizing Tommy Thompson:

    Luckily there are no shortage of potential candidates which could beat him in a primary from the right (Kanavas, Fitz Jr, and Neuman), but the problem is that they will hopefully not get all in, thus splitting the vote.

    All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently WI-05 (Home)

    by glame on Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 09:32:12 AM PDT

  •  Klobuchar (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Interesting thing about St. Bonifacius Minnesota is that it is home to Crown Bible College. AKA, Liberty University, North Star State edition. That is tea party central, and it is in Hennepin County, oddly enough

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